To The Moon

It was not unexpected to see Nasdaq 100 pull back yesterday as written in my article "18 June 2021: Daily Market Review. Dow falls? Why?" Below is an extract of my article yesterday:

"Indeed, Nasdaq 100 (September) futures has broken out on the top side, breaching through 14,000, 14,060 and touching 14,180 and as of the moment now at almost 2 p.m. Singapore and China time, reaching 14,200. This is despite yesterday Nasdaq 100 futures touching 13,845 in the morning around 9 plus a.m. in Singapore and China time. Will there be pull backs tonight? There remains the possibility before Nasdaq 100 treks further up... Question to ask is if Dow futures (September) is having an inverse relationship to that of the Nasdaq 100 now? Will it be a see saw when Nasdaq 100 goes up and Dow futures goes down? We will wait to see... but but my main view that broad markets will break out on the topside together may still happen."

If readers recalled yesterday, I was expecting a fall in Nasdaq 100 but for Dow to recover, which explained why I long Dow futures yesterday. I was glad to cut losses fast but not fast enough for my trading position. You will be able to see why. Avid readers of my article noted that I had used a support level of 33,500 to assess if Dow futures had turned weak. Indeed, it had broken through it yesterday when one of the Federal Reserve's governors made a even hawkish comment on bringing forward the interest rate hike into 2022. 

Am I worried? No no no.... because my investments are in selected tech stocks and you would have seen by now that Nasdaq 100 has proven relatively resilient and Nasdaq 100 has not broken past 14,000, 13,930, 13,760 and 13,700... For Dow futures, I will not touch on Dow futures or those reopening trades/ inflationary trades as you would see by now. It remains a possibility that Dow could erase its gains made since March 2021 and went all the way back to 31,000. Below is an extract of what I wrote yesterday:

"As for Dow futures (September), as long as the key support of 33,500 is not broken through solidly, I remain cautiously optimistic of Dow futures (September). However, readers should know that Dow futures are not very strong now after the weakening of commodities prices seem to impact on the Dow component stocks. Let's see how it goes... As always, I will cut loss if I am wrong."

For Hang Seng futures (June), it is still relatively resilient last night as readers would have recalled that my projections are for Hang Seng to cross over 29,000, which explained why I have loaded on $小米集團-W(01810)$ in a few batches from 27.6 HKD to around 28.4 HKD. Xiaomi saw a high volume of purchase towards closing hours, which also saw it closing at 28.8 HKD. Let's see if Xiaomi will retest recent high of 30.4 HKD and burst past it to reach 35 HKD to reach 40 HKD. Near term support would be at 26 HKD, 26.6 HKD and 27.6 HKD.

$老虎證券(TIGR)$ Back to my favorite topic of online trading platform listed companies, where I have spotted Tiger Brokers (market capitalisation of around 4.1 billion USD as the leading online trading/ fintech company in Asia, which has a huge potential to catch up and even exceed Futu (which has a market cap of 22.6 billion USD). Naysayers or market timers wanting to buy Tiger Brokers and fantasising that broad markets will correct would bring Tiger Brokers down to 15 USD or even 12 USD.. As always, my view on Nasdaq 100 remains unchanged and coupled with the immense potential of Tiger Brokers, I even went to load up a few batches of Tiger Brokers last night though it was slightly on the high end from 25.2 USD to 25.9 USD. Readers would know that bulk of my purchases are spreaded over the last few months since early February 2021 when price started moving from 15 USD. During that period, Tiger Brokers moved from 15 USD to 38.5 USD before coming back down to around 16 USD and then back up to 24 USD, down to around 13 USD and up to 23 USD, down to 14.8 USD and back up to recent high of 29.98 USD before coming down to around 25 USD now. For (i) shortsellers and (ii) people who miss out buying at the low end, they are hoping that price will revisit below 20 USD. But things have changed since early February 2021 is that after close to 4.5 months of consolidation, I do believe Tiger Brokers are ready to burst out on the UPSIDE. If you still want to wait, its your choice but to me, a big catalyst is Robinhood, ETORO ipos... Even recent Trade Republic's fundraising at an implied valuation of 5.2 billion USD, is a big sign for rerating of online fintech/ trading platform. 

See the link as follows:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/berlins-trade-republic-raises-funds-5-billion-valuation-2021-05-20/

An extract of the article as follows:

It manages 6 billion euros ($7.3 billion) in assets. Half of its customers have never invested before in their lives before signing up, said fellow co-founder Thomas Pischke.

If you recall, Tiger Brokers has around 21.8 billion USD of customer deposits, which is almost 3 times of what Trade Republic has... and guess what Tiger Brokers' current market capitalisation is only 4.07 billion USD as of last night closing price. If we are to only use the metric of customer deposits to assess its valuation, shoulIt manages 6 billion euros ($7.3 billion) in assets. Half of its customers have never invested before in their lives before signing up, said fellow co-founder Thomas Pischke.rdnt Tiger Broker be at least 5.2 billion x 3 = 15.6 billion USD market capitalisation. This works out to 96 USD of share price isnt it... Again, for valuation wise, we should not only use one metric and there should be more metrics to be used as well. But this at least gives me a sense of what sophisticated financial investors are willing to pay for online trading platforms/ fintech platforms...

Furthermore, with recent conversion of convertible bonds at around 21 USD per share and additional offering shares at 24.5 USD (think around this figure but I didnt check again) per share, these are the few levels of support for Tiger Brokers share price... In this process, Tiger Brokers have brought in institutional funds and brought in at least 300 million USD of funds into the company. These funds are real hard cash to support the price levels

So YES for people who are still waiting to buy at the prices in the old days, just keep waiting... Keep waiting... I will not be surprised for Tiger Brokers to suddenly move up one BIG LEG up to 40 USD and beyond rapidly.. Timing wise, as an investor for Tiger Brokers (I have segregated funds for investment and trading. Both with different ways of operations), I can hold Tiger Brokers share for long but I think the stars have started to align and for market timers, yes are you sure you can get the precise timing so accurately? I will leave it to you to hope for that. Remember, there is only one Paul Tudor, one George Soros, etc... Could you be one of them? 

$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ Lemonade demonstrates strength amidst Nasdaq 100 pull back yesterday...It crossed over 100 USD last night, with a rise of 4.6% and closed at 103.83 USD.. Readers know that I have mentioned the 100 USD level as a resistance and for it to cross over 100 USD again, this gives me a level of comfort though I am still not investing in it as I assess that Tiger Brokers could give me a better return over the long run.

$鬥魚(DOYU)$ Douyu also crossed over 8 USD last night, with a price at 8.32 USD, which is up 4.8%.

$埃克森美孚(XOM)$ Avid readers would know that I have written a special article on oil stocks awhile back where I mentioned that it would not be wise from my end to load up oil stocks. Exxon was down 2.55% last night. Consistent with my latest outlook of Dow futures, where I have turned negative of its outlook, I would definitely not buy oil stocks at all even though WTI oil price has held up above 70 USD and was up 0.5% by close yesterday.

Square... Square price was up by 0.4% and closed at around 237 USD last night.

Twitter was also strong and closed at around 60.85 USD, up around 0.2% last night.

Bitcoin. I will write another article on Bitcoin and my updated thoughts on Bitcoin sometime this weekend if I can find the time.

Long story short. I still prefer growth stocks but clearly on selected tech stocks since I wrote actively over the last few months. For market timers exiting investment and trying to caution people to offload positions, are you sure you are right? As always, I am not saying that I am definitely right but as long as Nasdaq 100 hold above 13,700 and 13,760 this period, then I wouldnt change my view yet... This is my current thinking at this moment. 

 As always, choose your source clearly and ignore the unnecessary noise in the markets. There are just too much noise in the markets and one has to know how to check against one confirmation bias with the right source. Stay safe my readers and as always, I welcome your comments. If you are my long term readers, feel free to raise any questions and I will try to respond to your questions from my perspective if time permits.

I remember one reader who asks me on my thoughts on whether gold and silver are good for purchase. I responded saying from my perspective that I wouldnt buy gold as the rewards at the price level back them for gold is around 1,867 USD. Gold price is currently at 1,764 USD now.

As always, the above should not be construed as any investment or trading advice. Let's end off this article by thinking through if I am a good source for you to follow actively daily. As always, volatility is here to stay and that in a way is good for Tiger Brokers!