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Sufi_ariff
2021-06-18

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Morgan Stanley upgrades Occidental on higher oil prices, predicts 40% gain

High oil prices and lower capital expenses should lead oil stocks to throw off cash, and investors s

Morgan Stanley upgrades Occidental on higher oil prices, predicts 40% gain

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Shiki0306
·2021-06-18
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The industry has seen demand surge and reserves dwindle as economies reopen.\nAnalyst Devin McDermott shuffled his ratings for energy stocks on Friday, upgradingOccidental Petroleumto overweight from equal weight andMarathon Oilto equal weight from underweight. McDermott said in a note to clients that these shifts were to gain more exposure to high oil prices in particular.\n“We reiterate our Attractive view of the sector and continue to favor a mix of ‘quality stocks on sale’ that offer outsized free cash flow yields and healthy balance sheets coupled with selective ‘oil beta’ exposure,” the note said.\nMorgan Stanley’s bullish stance does not require prices to continue to surge. The firm projects West Texas Intermediate crudeto trade on average in the low $60s in 2021 and 2022. WTI was trading just above $70 per barrel on Friday morning.\nFor Occidental, these prices are enough to generate substantial cash, the note said.\n“Rebounding margins and strong [free cash flow] position OXY to offer one of the more differentiated rate of change stories with its high quality upstream assets, above average FCF/equity yield of 17% (although FCF/EV still lags peers), and unique position in a lower-carbon energy future through OXY Low Carbon Ventures,” the note said.\nThe firm moved its price target for Occidental to $40 per share from $32, and on Marathon Oil to $15 from $12. Those new targets represent upside of 42% and 16%, respectively, from where the stocks closed on Thursday.\nDespite being bullish on the sector overall, Morgan Stanley did downgrade a few of the stocks as part of Friday’s call. 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