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Jocelynbee
2021-06-16

How to predict the European Cup with stock strategy: teams are also divided into large, medium and small caps

欧洲杯历史上成长/价值和大盘/小盘之间的相生相克，实力并不代表一切。

How to predict the European Cup with stock strategy: teams are also divided into large, medium and small caps

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Leong11
·2021-06-16
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":169775986,"tweetId":"169775986","gmtCreate":1623852336645,"gmtModify":1703821448418,"author":{"id":3583487577231849,"idStr":"3583487577231849","authorId":3583487577231849,"authorIdStr":"3583487577231849","name":"Jocelynbee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7298f59268fb69f6804df90d69de5d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169775986","repostId":1159413534,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159413534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623818212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159413534?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 12:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to predict the European Cup with stock strategy: teams are also divided into large, medium and small caps","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159413534","media":"一凌策略研究","summary":"欧洲杯历史上成长/价值和大盘/小盘之间的相生相克，实力并不代表一切。","content":"CORE POINT1. The history of the European Cup in the eyes of strategy researchers: the cycle of growth and valueThe European Cup, which was delayed due to the epidemic, will officially start in the early morning of June 12th, Beijing time. This is a feast for football fans all over the world, and who will win the Delauno Cup is also the biggest question mark at the moment. We will first divide the 24 national teams shortlisted for the 2020 European Cup into large market, middle market and small market according to their current value, and divide each team into two styles: growth and value according to the attribute values of the players of each team in FIFA21 and the relative strength of offensive and defensive attributes. Through the review of historical records, we find that growth (attack) is the eternal theme of the European Cup, and market growth (offensive strong teams) always seems to dominate. But football is round. In the history of the European Cup, Italy, a defensive counter-attack giant with \"large market value\" style, won the championship, and Denmark, a dark horse with \"small and medium cap growth\", and Greece with \"small and medium cap value\" won the championship. Perhaps the charm of football lies in uncertainty itself.2. Historical law: the mutual reinforcement between growth/value and large market/small marketThrough the statistics of the dialogue between various styles in the history of the European Cup, we can find that: (1) it seems difficult for teams with large-cap growth style to take advantage of opponents with large-cap value style, and their restraint on small and medium-cap style teams is the main support for their excellent achievements in the European Cup; (2) No matter whether it is a team with market growth or market value style, when facing small and medium-sized teams, the suppression of growth style is far inferior to that of value style. For giants, small and medium-sized teams that are good at attacking are often more difficult; In the face of small and medium-sized teams with value style, giants can often find the defensive loopholes of small and medium-sized teams in constant temptation, so as to win; (3) The team with mid-cap growth style has not yet tasted the mid-cap value style, while the mid-cap value currently maintains a 100% winning rate against the small-cap value; The winning rate of small-cap value against small-cap growth is also as high as 100%; When the small-cap growth-style team plays against the mid-cap growth-style team, it has not lost yet, with a winning percentage of 71%. It is surprising that such fatalistic style contradiction between small and medium-cap teams.3. Inventory of book strength: market growth (offensive giants) is better, but strength is not everythingFor this European Cup, we divide the offensive and defensive attributes of each team and the unbeaten rate (the proportion of victories or draws) of each team against other participating teams after the last European Cup into six grades from high to low, giving a score of 6 to 1, and finally summarizing the total score of each team. As a result, the strength of Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium is relatively superior, while Denmark, Austria and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium given by bookmakers for England seems to be contrary to our strength calculation. However, strength is only a part, and uncertainty and contingency in the football world are also eternal melodies.4. Unexpected results: The simulation results show that due to factors such as grouping and mutual restraint, the Italian team with poor book strength is the most likely to win the championshipThe competition for the championship is not determined by a single strength, but only the winning percentage. According to the grouping form, referring to the historical record of each participating team, the current strength ranking and the winning rate between historical styles as the basis of winning or losing probability, we use Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct 10,000 simulations. The results show that the Italian team with unpopular book data is the most likely to win the Delauno Cup, and the strong Spain ranks second in the probability of winning the championship. Among the teams most likely to enter the semi-finals, Portugal and France occupy the other two seats; The probability of Austria, Turkey and Scotland entering the semi-finals is also as high as 20%, which is expected to become dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is: according to our prediction, in this European Cup, whether it is a champion candidate or a dark horse, the value (defensive) style is expected to usher in a long-lost return.1. Phantom of Football: The Influence of the European Cup IndustryIn order to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the birth of the European Cup, let more countries participate in the European Cup, and take into account the needs of epidemic prevention and control, compared with previous ones hosted by a single or two countries, this European Cup has been revised to be held in 11 cities in different countries, and although spectators can enter, the attendance rate is strictly controlled, which will cause ticket revenue to drop sharply compared with previous ones. However, despite many differences and various restrictions, the huge economic benefits brought by this European Cup (compared with ticket revenue, TV broadcast, advertising sponsorship and other economic benefits account for a higher proportion, and the latter is less affected by epidemic prevention and control) is still expected to increase and will be shared by many countries. The current severe political and economic situation in Europe is expected to be eased to some extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6046a05cd10d6a2a529976670b9b68\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49adc01b32f7d59d274e51df61e81e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. European Cup past events2.1 Past events of the European Cup: the European Cup in the eyes of strategy researchersWe will first divide the 24 national teams shortlisted for Euro 2020 according to their current valueLarge Cap, Mid Cap and Small CapAccording to the attribute values of the players participating in each team in FIFA21, each team is divided intoGrowth and ValueTwo styles, so far the main style division of each participating team has been completed. We found that among the well-known giants, onlyItaly and EnglandIt is a market value style, that is, it is good at defense, andFor some small and medium-sized teams, value style occupies the majority, that is, based on defense, waiting for opportunities to fight back is their common winning strategy。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9bf85201b1ef8117f396779f14cf493\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.2 Past Events of the European Cup: Eternal Growth, Value of AttackIn the world of football, when a team forms a certain football style, this style is often passed down among generations of players, such as Germany's \"iron blood\", Italy's \"defense\" and Holland's \"total attack and total defense\".After we have finished the division of alternative styles of each participating team, growth is the eternal theme of the European Cup, and the growth of the market always seems to dominate. But football is round: in the history of the European Cup, Italy, a defensive and counter-attack giant with \"large-cap value\" style, won the championship, and Denmark, a dark horse with \"small and medium-cap growth\", and Greece with \"small and medium-cap value\" won the championship. Perhaps the charm of football lies in uncertainty itself.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b9be91f89b289a88e09868cc7f5884\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.3 European Cup Past Events: Historical Collision between Different StylesThen we counted the dialogues between various styles in the history of the European Cup, and found the following interesting phenomena:<ul><li>Although there are mostly draws in dialogues with the giants of growth and value style, from the perspective of winning percentage,Large-market growth style teams seem difficult to take advantage of large-market value style opponents, and its stable ability to \"abuse vegetables\" (which has an absolute advantage over small and medium-sized style teams) is the main support for its excellent results in the European Cup.However, the winning percentage of teams with large-cap value style is not high against teams with small and medium-cap growth style, and it is easy to draw and be dragged into penalty shootout, which increases the probability of \"rollover\"。</li><li>Whether it is a team with market growth or market value style, when facing a small and medium-cap style team,The suppression of growth style is far less than that of value style, which also means that for rich families,Small and medium-sized teams that are good at attacking are often more difficult and easily upset； When facing small and medium-sized teams with value style,The powerful scene control and excellent personal ability of the giants can often find the defensive loopholes of small and medium-sized teams in constant temptation, so as to win。</li><li>The team with mid-cap growth style has not yet tasted the mid-cap value style, while the mid-cap value currently maintains a 100% winning rate over the small-cap value. However, the mid-cap value has maintained a 100% winning rate over the small-cap value so far, which is obviously suppressed; The winning rate of small-cap value against small-cap growth is also as high as 100%. Surprisingly, when the small-cap growth team plays against the mid-cap growth team, it has not yet lost, and the winning rate is as high as 71%. It is surprising that there is such an obvious style disagreement.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e96317bf9f840e7bd9b94d73de65c40\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd35f1f69d22410028e506ccdb086b55\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Talk about the European Cup today: the strength ranking of the current participating teamsIn the last European Cup (2016), Portugal stumbled all the way. In the final, it beat the host France with a goal, and won the Delaunay Cup for the first time in history, showing its true colors as a dark horse. Cristiano Ronaldo was elected as the best player in the tournament, and the butterfly finally flew across the sea. Times have changed. For this European Cup, we divide the offensive and defensive attributes of each team and the unbeaten rate (the proportion of victories or draws) of each team against other participating teams after the last European Cup into six grades from high to low, giving a score of 6 to 1, and finally summarizing the total score of each team. As a result, the strength of Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium is relatively superior, while Denmark, Austria and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium given by bookmakers for England seems to be contrary to our strength calculation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0378fb35c4c5207ee47227c00c99b9a\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fe8c2491c510b0b7e82b0916d6e9c6\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. European Cup prediction4.1 European Cup Prediction: Not only the time, but the value returnsThe competition for the championship is not determined by a single strength. Strength is only the winning percentage. According to the grouping form, we refer to the historical record of each participating team, the winning percentage between styles and the current strength ranking as the basis of winning and losing probability. Using Monte Carlo algorithm for 10,000 simulations, the results show that compared with France and England, which have higher voices, the model seems to beItaly and SpainMore optimistic, the probability of winning the championship is over 20%, and among the teams entering the semi-finals, the probability of Portugal, Spain, France and Italy is far ahead; The probability of Austria, Turkey and Scotland entering the semi-finals is also as high as 20%, even surpassing the giants England, the Netherlands and Belgium, and are expected to become dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is that according to our predictions,In this European Cup, whether it is a championship candidate or a dark horse, the value (defensive) style is expected to usher in a long-lost return。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1de4611d75e38d26b8fec3722422102f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2 European Cup Prediction: The Road to the Birth of LegendsThen we give the most likely promotion route to the top 16 in the forecast, with the top eight being Belgium, Italy, France, Scotland, Spain, Germany, Portugal and Turkey; The semi-finals are Italy, France, Spain and Turkey, and the champion is Italy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4a182b0e9c0e5cc367fabea15b63f88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. Risk warningThe prediction is based on historical data prediction, and there is great uncertainty in football matches, so the prediction results are for reference only.","source":"lsy1597136054223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to predict the European Cup with stock strategy: teams are also divided into large, medium and small caps</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to predict the European Cup with stock strategy: teams are also divided into large, medium and small caps\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n一凌策略研究2021-06-16 12:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCORE POINT1. The history of the European Cup in the eyes of strategy researchers: the cycle of growth and valueThe European Cup, which was delayed due to the epidemic, will officially start in the early morning of June 12th, Beijing time. This is a feast for football fans all over the world, and who will win the Delauno Cup is also the biggest question mark at the moment. We will first divide the 24 national teams shortlisted for the 2020 European Cup into large market, middle market and small market according to their current value, and divide each team into two styles: growth and value according to the attribute values of the players of each team in FIFA21 and the relative strength of offensive and defensive attributes. Through the review of historical records, we find that growth (attack) is the eternal theme of the European Cup, and market growth (offensive strong teams) always seems to dominate. But football is round. In the history of the European Cup, Italy, a defensive counter-attack giant with \"large market value\" style, won the championship, and Denmark, a dark horse with \"small and medium cap growth\", and Greece with \"small and medium cap value\" won the championship. Perhaps the charm of football lies in uncertainty itself.2. Historical law: the mutual reinforcement between growth/value and large market/small marketThrough the statistics of the dialogue between various styles in the history of the European Cup, we can find that: (1) it seems difficult for teams with large-cap growth style to take advantage of opponents with large-cap value style, and their restraint on small and medium-cap style teams is the main support for their excellent achievements in the European Cup; (2) No matter whether it is a team with market growth or market value style, when facing small and medium-sized teams, the suppression of growth style is far inferior to that of value style. For giants, small and medium-sized teams that are good at attacking are often more difficult; In the face of small and medium-sized teams with value style, giants can often find the defensive loopholes of small and medium-sized teams in constant temptation, so as to win; (3) The team with mid-cap growth style has not yet tasted the mid-cap value style, while the mid-cap value currently maintains a 100% winning rate against the small-cap value; The winning rate of small-cap value against small-cap growth is also as high as 100%; When the small-cap growth-style team plays against the mid-cap growth-style team, it has not lost yet, with a winning percentage of 71%. It is surprising that such fatalistic style contradiction between small and medium-cap teams.3. Inventory of book strength: market growth (offensive giants) is better, but strength is not everythingFor this European Cup, we divide the offensive and defensive attributes of each team and the unbeaten rate (the proportion of victories or draws) of each team against other participating teams after the last European Cup into six grades from high to low, giving a score of 6 to 1, and finally summarizing the total score of each team. As a result, the strength of Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium is relatively superior, while Denmark, Austria and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium given by bookmakers for England seems to be contrary to our strength calculation. However, strength is only a part, and uncertainty and contingency in the football world are also eternal melodies.4. Unexpected results: The simulation results show that due to factors such as grouping and mutual restraint, the Italian team with poor book strength is the most likely to win the championshipThe competition for the championship is not determined by a single strength, but only the winning percentage. According to the grouping form, referring to the historical record of each participating team, the current strength ranking and the winning rate between historical styles as the basis of winning or losing probability, we use Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct 10,000 simulations. The results show that the Italian team with unpopular book data is the most likely to win the Delauno Cup, and the strong Spain ranks second in the probability of winning the championship. Among the teams most likely to enter the semi-finals, Portugal and France occupy the other two seats; The probability of Austria, Turkey and Scotland entering the semi-finals is also as high as 20%, which is expected to become dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is: according to our prediction, in this European Cup, whether it is a champion candidate or a dark horse, the value (defensive) style is expected to usher in a long-lost return.1. Phantom of Football: The Influence of the European Cup IndustryIn order to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the birth of the European Cup, let more countries participate in the European Cup, and take into account the needs of epidemic prevention and control, compared with previous ones hosted by a single or two countries, this European Cup has been revised to be held in 11 cities in different countries, and although spectators can enter, the attendance rate is strictly controlled, which will cause ticket revenue to drop sharply compared with previous ones. However, despite many differences and various restrictions, the huge economic benefits brought by this European Cup (compared with ticket revenue, TV broadcast, advertising sponsorship and other economic benefits account for a higher proportion, and the latter is less affected by epidemic prevention and control) is still expected to increase and will be shared by many countries. The current severe political and economic situation in Europe is expected to be eased to some extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6046a05cd10d6a2a529976670b9b68\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49adc01b32f7d59d274e51df61e81e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. European Cup past events2.1 Past events of the European Cup: the European Cup in the eyes of strategy researchersWe will first divide the 24 national teams shortlisted for Euro 2020 according to their current valueLarge Cap, Mid Cap and Small CapAccording to the attribute values of the players participating in each team in FIFA21, each team is divided intoGrowth and ValueTwo styles, so far the main style division of each participating team has been completed. We found that among the well-known giants, onlyItaly and EnglandIt is a market value style, that is, it is good at defense, andFor some small and medium-sized teams, value style occupies the majority, that is, based on defense, waiting for opportunities to fight back is their common winning strategy。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9bf85201b1ef8117f396779f14cf493\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.2 Past Events of the European Cup: Eternal Growth, Value of AttackIn the world of football, when a team forms a certain football style, this style is often passed down among generations of players, such as Germany's \"iron blood\", Italy's \"defense\" and Holland's \"total attack and total defense\".After we have finished the division of alternative styles of each participating team, growth is the eternal theme of the European Cup, and the growth of the market always seems to dominate. But football is round: in the history of the European Cup, Italy, a defensive and counter-attack giant with \"large-cap value\" style, won the championship, and Denmark, a dark horse with \"small and medium-cap growth\", and Greece with \"small and medium-cap value\" won the championship. Perhaps the charm of football lies in uncertainty itself.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b9be91f89b289a88e09868cc7f5884\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.3 European Cup Past Events: Historical Collision between Different StylesThen we counted the dialogues between various styles in the history of the European Cup, and found the following interesting phenomena:<ul><li>Although there are mostly draws in dialogues with the giants of growth and value style, from the perspective of winning percentage,Large-market growth style teams seem difficult to take advantage of large-market value style opponents, and its stable ability to \"abuse vegetables\" (which has an absolute advantage over small and medium-sized style teams) is the main support for its excellent results in the European Cup.However, the winning percentage of teams with large-cap value style is not high against teams with small and medium-cap growth style, and it is easy to draw and be dragged into penalty shootout, which increases the probability of \"rollover\"。</li><li>Whether it is a team with market growth or market value style, when facing a small and medium-cap style team,The suppression of growth style is far less than that of value style, which also means that for rich families,Small and medium-sized teams that are good at attacking are often more difficult and easily upset； When facing small and medium-sized teams with value style,The powerful scene control and excellent personal ability of the giants can often find the defensive loopholes of small and medium-sized teams in constant temptation, so as to win。</li><li>The team with mid-cap growth style has not yet tasted the mid-cap value style, while the mid-cap value currently maintains a 100% winning rate over the small-cap value. However, the mid-cap value has maintained a 100% winning rate over the small-cap value so far, which is obviously suppressed; The winning rate of small-cap value against small-cap growth is also as high as 100%. Surprisingly, when the small-cap growth team plays against the mid-cap growth team, it has not yet lost, and the winning rate is as high as 71%. It is surprising that there is such an obvious style disagreement.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e96317bf9f840e7bd9b94d73de65c40\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd35f1f69d22410028e506ccdb086b55\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Talk about the European Cup today: the strength ranking of the current participating teamsIn the last European Cup (2016), Portugal stumbled all the way. In the final, it beat the host France with a goal, and won the Delaunay Cup for the first time in history, showing its true colors as a dark horse. Cristiano Ronaldo was elected as the best player in the tournament, and the butterfly finally flew across the sea. Times have changed. For this European Cup, we divide the offensive and defensive attributes of each team and the unbeaten rate (the proportion of victories or draws) of each team against other participating teams after the last European Cup into six grades from high to low, giving a score of 6 to 1, and finally summarizing the total score of each team. As a result, the strength of Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium is relatively superior, while Denmark, Austria and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium given by bookmakers for England seems to be contrary to our strength calculation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0378fb35c4c5207ee47227c00c99b9a\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fe8c2491c510b0b7e82b0916d6e9c6\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. European Cup prediction4.1 European Cup Prediction: Not only the time, but the value returnsThe competition for the championship is not determined by a single strength. Strength is only the winning percentage. According to the grouping form, we refer to the historical record of each participating team, the winning percentage between styles and the current strength ranking as the basis of winning and losing probability. Using Monte Carlo algorithm for 10,000 simulations, the results show that compared with France and England, which have higher voices, the model seems to beItaly and SpainMore optimistic, the probability of winning the championship is over 20%, and among the teams entering the semi-finals, the probability of Portugal, Spain, France and Italy is far ahead; The probability of Austria, Turkey and Scotland entering the semi-finals is also as high as 20%, even surpassing the giants England, the Netherlands and Belgium, and are expected to become dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is that according to our predictions,In this European Cup, whether it is a championship candidate or a dark horse, the value (defensive) style is expected to usher in a long-lost return。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1de4611d75e38d26b8fec3722422102f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2 European Cup Prediction: The Road to the Birth of LegendsThen we give the most likely promotion route to the top 16 in the forecast, with the top eight being Belgium, Italy, France, Scotland, Spain, Germany, Portugal and Turkey; The semi-finals are Italy, France, Spain and Turkey, and the champion is Italy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4a182b0e9c0e5cc367fabea15b63f88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. Risk warningThe prediction is based on historical data prediction, and there is great uncertainty in football matches, so the prediction results are for reference only.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MDkzOTc3Nw==&mid=2247497832&idx=1&sn=76757893f1c4c257c1e132833857f026&chksm=ea60b106dd1738104b091bd07ad5c0fb1162194cdc1ca9435f37314aa41c03e4fe174eb469f6&scene=126&&sessionid=1623406425\">一凌策略研究</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5573b681a3f625a02cfcfda9e1d5d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MDkzOTc3Nw==&mid=2247497832&idx=1&sn=76757893f1c4c257c1e132833857f026&chksm=ea60b106dd1738104b091bd07ad5c0fb1162194cdc1ca9435f37314aa41c03e4fe174eb469f6&scene=126&&sessionid=1623406425","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159413534","content_text":"核心观点\n1、策略研究员眼中的欧洲杯历史：成长与价值的轮回\n受疫情原因延后的欧洲杯将于北京时间6月12日凌晨正式开赛，这是一场全球足球迷的盛宴，德劳诺杯花落谁家也是当下最大的问号。我们将入围2020年欧洲杯正赛的24支国家队首先按当前的身价大小划分为大盘、中盘与小盘，并按照各队参赛球员在FIFA21中的属性值，依据进攻与防守属性的相对强弱将各队划分为成长与价值两种风格。通过历史战绩的回顾，我们发现：成长（进攻）是欧洲杯永远的主题，大盘成长（进攻型强队）似乎总是主导。但是足球是圆的，欧洲杯历史上有“大盘价值”风格的防守反击型豪门意大利夺冠，也有“中小盘成长”的黑马丹麦与“中小盘价值”的希腊夺得冠军。足球的魅力或许就在于不确定性本身。\n2、历史规律：成长/价值和大盘/小盘之间的相生相克\n通过统计欧洲杯历史上各种风格之间的彼此对话，可以发现：（1）大盘成长风格的球队似乎很难在大盘价值风格的对手上占到便宜，而其对中小盘风格球队的克制是其在欧洲杯上优异的成绩主要支撑；（2）无论是大盘成长还是大盘价值风格的球队，在面对中小盘风格球队之时，对于成长风格的压制力远逊于对于价值风格的压制，对于豪门而言，擅长进攻的中小球队往往更为棘手；而在面对价值风格的中小球队时，豪门往往能够在不断试探中寻觅到中小球队的防守漏洞，从而获得胜利；（3）中盘成长风格的球队对中盘价值风格目前尚未尝负，而中盘价值对小盘价值目前维持着100%胜率；而小盘价值对小盘成长胜率同样高达100%；小盘成长风格的球队对阵中盘成长风格的球队之时，目前尚未一败，胜率高达71%。中小盘球队之间的如此宿命般的风格相克令人惊讶。\n3、账面实力盘点：大盘成长（进攻型豪门）更胜一筹，然而实力并不是一切\n对于本次欧洲杯，我们对各队进攻、防守属性以及上一届欧洲杯后的各队面对其他参赛队伍的不败率（胜利或平局的场次占比）进行分档，由高到低分为6档，给予6至1的评分，最后汇总得到各队的总评分。从结果上看，西班牙、法国、荷兰、德国与比利时的实力相对更胜一筹，而丹麦、奥地利、克罗地亚具备黑马潜力。博彩公司对于英格兰给出的高溢价，似乎与我们的实力测算相悖。然而，实力仅仅只是一部分，足球世界里的不确定性与偶然性同样是永恒的旋律。\n4、意外的结果：模拟结果显示由于分组和相互克制等因素，账面实力不佳的意大利队才最有希望夺得冠军\n冠军的角逐并不是由单一实力高低决定，实力只是胜率。我们根据分组形式，参照各支参赛队伍之间的历史战绩、当前的实力排名和历史风格之间胜率作为胜负概率依据，采用蒙特卡洛算法进行10000次模拟，结果显示：账面数据并不热门的意大利队才最有可能捧起德劳诺杯，实力强劲的西班牙夺冠概率位居第二，而在最有可能进入四强的队伍中，葡萄牙与法国占据另外两个席位；而奥地利、土耳其、苏格兰进入四强的概率同样高达20%以上，有望成为黑马。一个有意思的现象是：根据我们的预测，在本届欧洲杯中，无论是冠军候选人还是黑马，价值（防守）风格有望迎来久违的回归。\n1. 足球魅影：欧洲杯产业的影响力\n为庆祝欧洲杯诞辰60周年，让更多国家参与到欧洲杯之中，同时考虑到疫情防控需求，相较于往届由单一或两个左右的国家承办，本届欧洲杯修改为在11座不同国家的城市中进行，并且尽管有观众可以入场，但是严格控制了上座率，这将使得门票收入相较往届出现大幅下滑。然而尽管存在诸多不同与各种限制，本届欧洲杯所带来的巨大经济效益（相较于门票收入，电视转播、广告赞助等经济效益占比更高，而后者并受疫情防控影响较小）却依然有望有增无减，并且将被多个国家所分享，当前欧洲严峻的政治与经济形势有望得以一定缓和。\n\n\n2. 欧洲杯往事\n2.1 欧洲杯往事：策略研究员眼中的欧洲杯\n我们将入围2020年欧洲杯正赛的24支国家队首先按当前的身价大小划分为大盘、中盘与小盘，并按照各队参赛球员在FIFA21中的属性值，依据进攻与防守属性的相对强弱将各队划分为成长与价值两种风格，至此完成对各支参赛球队的主要风格划分。我们发现，在大家熟知的豪门球队之中，仅有意大利与英格兰为大盘价值风格，即以防守见长，而对于一些中小球队而言，价值风格占据多数，即立足于防守，伺机打反击是他们常用的赢球策略。\n\n2.2欧洲杯往事：永恒的成长，进击的价值\n足球世界里，当球队形成某一种足球风格时，这种风格往往会在一代又一代的球员之中进行传承，比如德国的“铁血”，意大利的“防守”，荷兰的“全攻全守”。\n我们在完成对各个参赛队伍的另类风格划分后，成长是欧洲杯永远的主题，大盘成长似乎总是主导。但是足球是圆的：欧洲杯历史上有“大盘价值”风格的防守反击型豪门意大利夺冠，也有“中小盘成长”的黑马丹麦与“中小盘价值”的希腊夺得冠军。足球的魅力或许就在于不确定性本身。\n\n2.3 欧洲杯往事：不同风格间的历史碰撞\n我们接着统计了欧洲杯历史上各种风格之间的彼此对话，发现了以下几个有趣的现象：\n\n成长与价值风格的豪门对话虽然平局居多，然而从胜率看，大盘成长风格的球队似乎很难在大盘价值风格的对手上占到便宜，而其稳定的“虐菜”能力（对中小盘风格球队占据绝对的优势）是其在欧洲杯上优异的成绩主要支撑。而大盘价值风格的球队对中小盘成长风格的球队胜率却并不高，容易打平被拖入点球大战，加大了“翻车”几率。\n无论是大盘成长还是大盘价值风格的球队，在面对中小盘风格球队之时，对于成长风格的压制力远逊于对于价值风格，这也意味着对于豪门而言，擅长进攻的中小球队往往更为棘手，容易被爆冷；而在面对价值风格的中小球队时，豪门强大的场面控制力与出色的个人能力往往能够在不断试探中寻觅到中小球队的防守漏洞，从而获得胜利。\n中盘成长风格的球队对中盘价值风格目前尚未尝负，而中盘价值对小盘价值目前维持着100%胜率，然而中盘价值对小盘价值却至今保持100%胜率，存在明显压制；而小盘价值对小盘成长胜率同样高达100%，令人意外的是，小盘成长风格的球队对阵中盘成长风格的球队之时，目前尚未一败，胜率高达71%，存在如此明显的风格相克现象令人惊讶。\n\n\n\n\n3. 欧洲杯今谈：当前参赛队伍的实力排名\n\n在上一届欧洲杯（2016年）中，葡萄牙一路跌跌撞撞，决赛一球绝杀东道主法国，历史首捧德劳内杯，尽显黑马本色，克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多当选赛事最佳球员，蝴蝶终于飞过沧海。时过境迁，对于本次欧洲杯，我们对各队进攻、防守属性以及上一届欧洲杯后的各队面对其他参赛队伍的不败率（胜利或平局的场次占比）进行分档，由高到低分为6档，给予6至1的评分，最后汇总得到各队的总评分。从结果上看，西班牙、法国、荷兰、德国与比利时的实力相对更胜一筹，而丹麦、奥地利、克罗地亚具备黑马潜力。博彩公司对于英格兰给出的高溢价，似乎与我们的实力测算相悖。\n\n\n4. 欧洲杯预测\n4.1 欧洲杯预测：非惟天时，价值回归\n冠军的角逐并不是由单一实力高低决定，实力只是胜率我们根据分组形式，参照各支参赛队伍之间的历史战绩、风格之间胜率和当前的实力排名作为胜负概率依据，采用蒙特卡洛算法进行10000次模拟，结果显示：与呼声较高的法国、英格兰相比，模型似乎对意大利与西班牙更为看好，夺冠概率均超过20%，而在进入四强的队伍中，葡萄牙、西班牙、法国与意大利的概率遥遥领先；而奥地利、土耳其、苏格兰进入四强的概率同样高达20%以上，甚至超过豪门英格兰、荷兰与比利时，有望成为黑马。一个有意思的现象是：根据我们的预测，在本届欧洲杯中，无论是冠军候选人还是黑马，价值（防守）风格有望迎来久违的回归。\n\n4.2 欧洲杯预测：传奇诞生之路\n我们接着给出预测中最有可能的16强晋级路线，八强为比利时、意大利、法国、苏格兰、西班牙、德国、葡萄牙、土耳其；四强为意大利、法国、西班牙与土耳其，冠军为意大利。\n\n5. 风险提示\n预测基于历史数据预测，而足球比赛存在较大不确定性，因此预测结果仅供参考。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4812996,"commentId":"4812996","gmtCreate":1623852399339,"gmtModify":1663229037440,"authorId":3583591142382890,"author":{"id":3583591142382890,"idStr":"3583591142382890","authorId":3583591142382890,"name":"Leong11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86aaf63c6f1ea2ca2e259800c40ba99b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":169775986,"objectIdStr":"169775986","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"好","text":"好","html":"好","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}