5 mins quick post
June is here, and my thesis from Jan is still wrong
But I changed my mind in March
(Like i said in my March post)
The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ maintains strength
Commodity currencies are down.
The Canadian loonie weak.
$Canadian Dollar - main 2212(CADmain)$
The price of wheat has dropped a lot.
Despite possible El Niño weather.
I didnt dare to bet due to conflicting views.
Hindsight 20/20
Will my Jan thesis continue to be wrong
Or will it reverse
So far seems like same old same old
2% inflation still a myth
Personally, it was a good month.
Mitsubishi Electric, a long time stock i owned, rose.
I bought more.
But i also lost a lot of money by longing coffee via the Ipath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex TRF
It is by another broker too cause cant buy on tiger.
So I'm still making a bit of profit overall.
Inflation seems like it won't relent.
So i think interest rate will go up and wont cut.
In my opinion, they're not doing enough
I think people who made smart shorts done well
Plenty of short opportunities ahead for targeted companies
Who will fall after regional banks in the US?
Who will fall where liquidity is cut?
elon musk predicts Real estate will fall.
I tend to agree because a lot of excess liquidity went there
But it is too obvious and prob priced in
Where else
Small, medium than big
For june thesis, i will leave you with a long run short thesis:
the future of Walt Disney, Lowe's, and Adobe,
I'm not optimistic.
These companies have a lot of competition, and they make money by charging higher prices for their services,
those can easily be replaced by cheaper alternatives during an economic downturn.
I think On Holdings might be in a similar situation, but I like their products and they have low debt.
Also their customers might not be as affected by a recession.
if you're thinking about betting against Adobe's stock, be careful because they're buying back their own shares, which can make it a risky move.
Good luck and have good sleep all..
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It's interesting to hear your thoughts on potential short opportunities. Thanks for sharing and good luck to you too! 💪
I agree with you about interest rates going up. Inflation is a real issue that needs to be addressed.
It's great that you had a good month, but sorry to hear about your losses with coffee.
Hey, don't worry too much about your thesis being wrong. We all make mistakes sometimes.