Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be

After holding the positions for more than two months, our long EUR and WTI crude oil trades both generated positive returns last week. With a Federal Reserve rate hike drawing near, new trade setups may emerge at any time. Many investors still have questions about several key issues. This week, we will use the current market backdrop to review the main considerations and provide a practical framework. Managing Futures Contract Rollovers One of the most common questions concerns futures contract rollovers. Because we frequently run swing trades and some positions are held for relatively long periods, changes in the front-month or most-active contract are sometimes unavoidable. Since physical delivery is generally not a practical option, the choices are usually limited to the following: Sett

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

1. Import prices:A weaker USD makes imports more expensive. When the value of the US dollar decreases, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of goods or services from other countries. As a result, the prices of imported goods and raw materials increase. This increase in import prices can contribute to inflation because businesses may pass on the higher costs to consumers.2. Cost-push inflation:A weaker USD can also lead to cost-push inflation. When the value of the US dollar declines, it becomes more expensive for businesses to purchase imported inputs, such as raw materials or machinery. These higher costs can lead to an increase in production costs, which may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.3. Commodity prices:Many commodities, such as

Bitcoin and the US dollar are two different currencies with unique characteristics. Learn about the differences between Bitcoin and the US dollar, how they impact their values, and which may be better for your needs.Courtesy of Pexels.comBitcoin and the US dollar are two very different types of currency with unique characteristics that impact their values.In this article, we will explore the key differences between Bitcoin and the US dollar and how these factors affect their respective values.One of the most significant differences is centralization.Bitcoin is a decentralized currency, meaning that any central authority or government does not control it. On the other hand, the US dollar is centralized, with the Federal Reserve controlling its supply and distribution.This is why t

We find ourselves in a dismal equity market. Bond prices are falling.  Even REITs leverage limits are shaky.  I have reviewed some S-Reit current  leverage. I am concerned. If valuation falls and interest rate rise, what then? The regulatory limit may be triggered. We are finally close to the edge. Perhaps a recovery is near. What should an intreprid investor do? What is the best way if one wish to bet on recovery? My thesis: short the USD and long commodities currencies. More directly, long commodities. Please note that while i am invested, these bets are risky. Currency and commodities future have ruin many. Consider the thesis at your own risk. $Canadian Dollar - Dec 2023(CAD2312)$  

The US dollar index plunged nearly 2% last Friday, the biggest one-day drop in about seven years. October's non-agricultural data was mixed, and the number of new jobs was higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose and wage inflation fell, and the labor market showed signs of slowing down. The dollar plummeted after the data was released. Even though the employment data is still strong, some Fed officials still support a small interest rate hike in December. With the decline of the US dollar, other major currencies gained a boost. As for the euro, it is uncertain whether the European Central Bank will continue to support the euro by raising interest rates. The euro may fall to the $0.95 level against the US dollar and remain weak for a longer period of time. The yen and Australia