To The Moon

All thanks to Tiger once again for awarding the the double win of the weekly top predictions for QQQ and SPY. Let’s gear up for more profitable trades next week! 🤩

Stocks rallied and VIX tumbled on Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs reports and lawmakers passing a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.

VIX average level is about 18-20

The major averages were higher for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory, last up 1.9% week to date. The Nasdaq is on pace to end its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.

You say jump, I say how high?

Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Some recent data has pointed to a continued robust labor market. Wednesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report showed an unexpectedly large increase in job openings, and Thursday's ADP Jobs Report also came in stronger than anticipated.

Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000 despite economists polled by Dow Jones expecting a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

Where are the jobs and workers?

The U.S. payrolls report for May blew past expectations, supported by strong jobs gains in the professional and business services sector — as well as a jump in government employment.

Job gains were broad-based last month with health care contributing 52,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 48,000. Food services and drinking places led the increase in the latter industry, which had been adding an average of 77,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Overall, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs for the month, much better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in May against the estimate for 3.5%. The jobless rate was the highest since October 2022, though still near the lowest since 1969.

Still firing or now hiring?

Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.

The strength of the labor market has, for the most part, been surprising to the upside since the economy rebounded from the pandemic shock in March-April 2020. While that may be good news for workers, it's not what the Federal Reserve wants.

Hike or pause in June?

Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the labor market remains unsustainably tight, and supply and demand need to get into better balance for inflation to retreat toward the Fed's 2% goal.

As mentioned previously on WSB, Fed officials like Patrick Harker and Philip Jefferson are calling for a pause to the rate hiking cycle this month, before making further decisions about the "extent of additional policy firming."

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Odds of pause have also rocketed higher on CME's FedWatch Tool, climbing to nearly 80% yesterday, from only 35% a week ago.

The SPY has resistance above at 436.79 and support below at $420.76. All eyes on the upcoming FOMC to announce for a pause to send the market into another frenzy 🚀

Options trading summary for May 2023

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