To The Moon

Friday night's non-agricultural data was stronger than expected by the market. Although the unemployment rate rose, the gold market chose to believe that the Federal Reserve would continue the rate hike, which led to a sharp drop in gold prices. In the early morning of June 15th, the Federal Reserve will meet on interest rates. Obviously, the market is currently pricing in the results of the meeting and the words after the meeting, and gold has reached a key position.

Important technical support of gold

Since November last year, with the change of attitude of the Federal Reserve and a series of crisis events, the market has been strong in bullish sentiment, and the price of gold has also risen from around 1600 to 2100. As for whether the gold price is PRICE IN, there are still different opinions. At least, major investment banks rarely have any comments on bearish gold price, but the current performance of gold price is not strong, so does it indicate a reversal of gold price?

Since there is no reason on the fundamentals, we should start from the short term and find out some clues through technical analysis. At present, the upward trend of gold price since November has been following the 20-week moving average and continues to this day. Once the moving average is effectively broken, the bullish trend of gold price in the medium term may be reversed. Superimposed with the market expectation of the Federal Reserve to continue the rate hike, I am afraid it will take a round of correction to re-launch the impact on 2100 points. Therefore, the performance of gold price this week is particularly important. Gold price is currently around 1965, while the 20-week moving average price is in 1950, which is similar. If it falls below this moving average this week, I am afraid that gold price will drop by more than 3%. Friends who see more gold must pay attention to it.

So the current strategy about gold is,Take the gold price 1950 points as the bullish support point to observe, and it will become the pressure point after falling below. Friends who hold more gold pay attention to stop loss or hedging protection, and wait for the low to re-intervene or unlock (the low point of gold price in March is a strong support, and it is estimated that it will not fall to that position before the interest rate meeting, so there is no need to struggle with the lowest point, just pay attention to protection).If it falls this week, it is only an expected test before the interest rate meeting. With the safe-haven atmosphere of gold price, there will still be bargain-hunting if it falls more. After the interest rate meeting, the Fed has a clear attitude, and the bargain-hunting funds will quickly flood in and rebound or reverse, so it swings greatly, so pay attention to protection.

Oil price enters the game time

Recently, the oil price once again fell below $70, which is difficult for OPEC + oil-producing countries to accept, because the oil price above $80 is their fiscal break-even line, and they are obviously unwilling to accept it for a long time, so there are frequent rumors of production reduction at OPEC meeting over the weekend. However, OPEC + is not a country after all, and the interests of different countries are different. The market has great doubts about whether OPEC can continue to reduce production. The last sharp reduction in production failed to stabilize the oil price above US $80, and the effectiveness of continuing to reduce production will gradually decline. Therefore, if the news of OPEC + production reduction over the weekend makes the oil price pulse, it will be a good opportunity to short the oil price, and the stop loss should be placed at $80.

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