To The Moon

The United States used to have a strong grip on the global lithium supply.

In 1996, the U.S. produced over a quarter of the world’s lithium. A quarter century later, it’s at less than 1%.

The grand total of lithium mines producing in the U.S. now? One.

The actual production number is so embarrassing it’s withheld on U.S. Geological Survey reports.

Meanwhile, lithium has transitioned from barely-used metal to vital energy component.

But it’s estimated that the solitary Silver Lake mine, located in Nevada, produces enough lithium for about 80,000 EVs.

That’s less than 1% of what the U.S. will need by 2030—for EVs alone.

And that doesn’t even include the demand from utility-scale battery storage to make the switch to renewables.

In other words, Silver Lake is a puddle. The United States desperately needs an ocean.

Fortunately, the U.S. is #5 in the world in lithium reserves. And that number is quickly rising as exploration locates more economic lithium.

There’s plenty of lithium at home, and nowhere else to turn. So the U.S. government is enlisting every weapon in its arsenal to stimulate domestic production.

In 2022, Congress invoked the Defense Production Act—originally intended to help the U.S. win wars—to get the industry moving again.

The Act provides huge tax incentives to critical mineral miners and battery manufacturers. Tesla alone estimates the credits are worth $1 billion+ per year.

But there’s a catch.

To qualify, at least 40% of battery components have to be extracted or processed either in the United States or in one of twenty free-trade countries.

That ramps up to 100% by 2029.

The law also requires evidence that zero lithium has been “extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern.” (In other words, “China.”)

But not just Chinese-mined lithium…

Australia mines half of the world’s lithium—and ships 90% of that to China for processing. All off-limits to U.S. manufacturers starting at the end of 2023.

Car manufacturers have only a single option left if they want to do business in the U.S.: identifying a source of local lithium.

By backing car manufacturers into that corner, the U.S. government has knowingly kicked off a new Lithium Rush.

And this one’s going to put every Gold Rush to shame.