News and my muse ~ SF CRE crisis, inflation, Debt Ceiling, Layoffs - Sonos, TrueCar & Citi
News and my muse ~ SF CRE crisis, inflation, Debt Ceiling, Layoffs - Sonos, TrueCar & Citi
June is normally one of the best months of the year in trucking and sets the tone for the rest of the year. Unfortunately, its not providing much of a relief for struggling carriers. Trucking spot rates (net of fuel) are now lower than 2019.
<The Kobeissi letter> BREAKING: Median asking rent for a US home rises 1.4% in May to $1,995/month. Meanwhile, the average new car payment is now $800/month. On top of this, the average American is paying $430/month in credit card debt. This means the average person is now paying $3,225/month for rent, credit card bills and a new car payment. Inflation is real.
JPMorgan analysts estimate the US will need to borrow $1.1 trillion in short-dated Treasury bills by the end of the year, reports the Financial Times.
<SF Chronicle> Westfield stopped paying its $558 million mortgage and is surrendering its namesake SF mall, the biggest in the city, to lenders in the wake of Nordstrom's planned closure and plunging foot traffic (down ~42% from 2019) and sales (down ~1/3)
(SF) Overall, the city is forecasting a $728 million deficit over the next two fiscal years and as much as a $1.2 billion annual deficit by 2028. That could mean a lot of cuts to city services.
<The Street> The billionaire Elon Musk sounds the alarm on the real estate market, saying it's suffering from higher interest rates while the economy has slowed sharply.
<CNBC> Goldman posted almost $400 million in first-quarter impairments on real estate loans, according to Solomon
Citi is making another 50 cuts in its London investment banking team. This is 5% of the 1,000 person headcount in that particular unit and follows "hundreds" of job cuts, amounting to 1% of Citi's total staff in March.
This is a good overview of how 8 mega-cap stocks drive the growth in 2023. My muse - what happens to the rest? The economy could tank if they do not do well too.
Exports from China shrank 7.5% yoy by USD 283.5 billion in May 2023, as global demand was insufficient to sustain a recovery in outbound shipments. Among major trade partners, exports to the US plunged by 18.2% from a year earlier, while those to the EU slumped by 26.6%.
US imports look to be in a downtrend since Jan 2023. Let us monitor this closely.
<CNBC> Sonos lays off 7%, or about 130 employees
<NYTimes> In 2021, Chinese companies were responsible for 30% of foreign investment in Nuevo León, second only to the United States at 47%. Some of these will make finished products for sale in the US. But much is focused on a broader refashioning of the global supply chain.
More weak data for #China China' #retail sales grew 12.7% y/y in May, vs expected 13.6%, prev 18.4%. #Industrial production rose 3.5% y/y in May, vs expected 3.6%, prev 5.6% Fixed-asset #investment grew 4% y/y in Jan-May, vs expected 4.5%, prev 4.7% for Jan-Apr
<Yahoo Finance> Morgan Stanley analysts see a fall for commercial real estate ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’—BofA disagrees for 3 key reasons
<Automotive News> TrueCar is laying off nearly a quarter of its workforce and appointed COO Jantoon Reigersman as its new CEO to help the vehicle listings company amid a restructuring. The Santa Monica, Calif., company will cut 102 positions, or 24% of its workforce.
Unrealized losses on bank balance sheets will get bigger. They are 6x what they were in 2008.
<Forbes> 2023 Media Layoffs: Bell Canada Enterprises Cuts 1,300 Employees
<CNA> The layoffs may impact up to 30% of its staff at the unit, including employees in U.S. SoftBank's Vision Fund unit, which has booked heavy investment losses, had headcount of 349 at the end of March, according to a company report.
If I can summarize what we see in the market, we are in a bull run over weakening fundamentals. There is much to be both excited & cautious about.
<CNBC> Fed Chair Jerome Powell: We’re constantly watching banks and credit conditions for our rate settings
<Watcher Guru> According to report, the BRICS alliance has formally received applications from 25 countries to join the bloc.
<Fox> National debt hits $32 trillion two weeks after debt ceiling deal The government can keep borrowing without any limit through 2024
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Investment in this environment is getting more confusing 🤷♀️
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这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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Part and parcel of all the way
News and my muse ~ SF
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