News and my muse ~ SF CRE crisis, inflation, Debt Ceiling, Layoffs - Sonos, TrueCar & Citi

News and my muse ~ SF CRE crisis, inflation, Debt Ceiling, Layoffs - Sonos, TrueCar & Citi

  • June is normally one of the best months of the year in trucking and sets the tone for the rest of the year. Unfortunately, its not providing much of a relief for struggling carriers. Trucking spot rates (net of fuel) are now lower than 2019.

  • <The Kobeissi letter> BREAKING: Median asking rent for a US home rises 1.4% in May to $1,995/month. Meanwhile, the average new car payment is now $800/month. On top of this, the average American is paying $430/month in credit card debt. This means the average person is now paying $3,225/month for rent, credit card bills and a new car payment. Inflation is real.

  • JPMorgan analysts estimate the US will need to borrow $1.1 trillion in short-dated Treasury bills by the end of the year, reports the Financial Times.

  • <SF Chronicle> Westfield stopped paying its $558 million mortgage and is surrendering its namesake SF mall, the biggest in the city, to lenders in the wake of Nordstrom's planned closure and plunging foot traffic (down ~42% from 2019) and sales (down ~1/3)

  • (SF) Overall, the city is forecasting a $728 million deficit over the next two fiscal years and as much as a $1.2 billion annual deficit by 2028. That could mean a lot of cuts to city services.

  • <The Street> The billionaire Elon Musk sounds the alarm on the real estate market, saying it's suffering from higher interest rates while the economy has slowed sharply.

  • <CNBC> Goldman posted almost $400 million in first-quarter impairments on real estate loans, according to Solomon

  • Citi is making another 50 cuts in its London investment banking team. This is 5% of the 1,000 person headcount in that particular unit and follows "hundreds" of job cuts, amounting to 1% of Citi's total staff in March.

  • This is a good overview of how 8 mega-cap stocks drive the growth in 2023. My muse - what happens to the rest? The economy could tank if they do not do well too.

  • Exports from China shrank 7.5% yoy by USD 283.5 billion in May 2023, as global demand was insufficient to sustain a recovery in outbound shipments. Among major trade partners, exports to the US plunged by 18.2% from a year earlier, while those to the EU slumped by 26.6%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports Imports to the United States increased by USD 4.8 billion from a month earlier to USD 323.6 billion in April 2023, recovering from two consecutive months of decreases. Imports of goods went up by USD 5.2 billion, amid higher purchases of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines (up USD 2.0 billion), finished metal shapes (up USD 1.5 billion), nonmonetary gold (up USD 1.1. billion), organic chemicals (up USD 0.9 billion) and cell phones and other household goods (up 1.7 billion). On the other hand, imports of crude oil (down USD 0.8 billion) and natural gas (down USD 0.8 billion) decreased. Also, imports of services decreased by USD 0.4 billion, due to transport (down USD 0.4 billion) and travel (down USD 0.2 billion).

US imports look to be in a downtrend since Jan 2023. Let us monitor this closely.

  • <CNBC> Sonos lays off 7%, or about 130 employees

  • <NYTimes> In 2021, Chinese companies were responsible for 30% of foreign investment in Nuevo León, second only to the United States at 47%. Some of these will make finished products for sale in the US. But much is focused on a broader refashioning of the global supply chain.

  • More weak data for #China China' #retail sales grew 12.7% y/y in May, vs expected 13.6%, prev 18.4%. #Industrial production rose 3.5% y/y in May, vs expected 3.6%, prev 5.6% Fixed-asset #investment grew 4% y/y in Jan-May, vs expected 4.5%, prev 4.7% for Jan-Apr

  • <Yahoo Finance> Morgan Stanley analysts see a fall for commercial real estate ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’—BofA disagrees for 3 key reasons

  • <Automotive News> TrueCar is laying off nearly a quarter of its workforce and appointed COO Jantoon Reigersman as its new CEO to help the vehicle listings company amid a restructuring. The Santa Monica, Calif., company will cut 102 positions, or 24% of its workforce.

Unrealized losses of Banks' securities

Unrealized losses on bank balance sheets will get bigger. They are 6x what they were in 2008.

  • <Forbes> 2023 Media Layoffs: Bell Canada Enterprises Cuts 1,300 Employees

  • <CNA> The layoffs may impact up to 30% of its staff at the unit, including employees in U.S. SoftBank's Vision Fund unit, which has booked heavy investment losses, had headcount of 349 at the end of March, according to a company report.

  • If I can summarize what we see in the market, we are in a bull run over weakening fundamentals. There is much to be both excited & cautious about.

  • <CNBC> Fed Chair Jerome Powell: We’re constantly watching banks and credit conditions for our rate settings

  • <Watcher Guru> According to report, the BRICS alliance has formally received applications from 25 countries to join the bloc.

  • <Fox> National debt hits $32 trillion two weeks after debt ceiling deal The government can keep borrowing without any limit through 2024

@TigerStars

$Citigroup(C)$

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$

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  • Maky
    ·2023-06-18
    TOP
    The weakening fundamentals are scary. The recent bull run starts from tech stocks, specifically those with AI news. Question is how sustainable is the rally?
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    • KYHBKO
      one day, the bull (or bear) run will be exhausted. the retracements reveal new support and ceiling levels. 
      2023-06-20
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    • KYHBKO
      these news have been overshadowed by AI and the mega cap. let us consider some hedging for this season. 
      2023-06-18
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  • Pinarelli
    ·2023-06-18
    TOP

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for your kind sharing
      2023-06-18
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  • HLPA
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP
    Thank you for this great article. The US markets are generally driven by huge players like the hedge funds. Recession or not, huge debt or not, stock pricesgo up or down, the markets continue its bull run. These huge players are manipilating stocks and what all investors have to do is to go with the flow. Money can be made whether stocks go up or down in all sectors. Just take great care while playing the stock market. Its a casino out there!
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    • HLPAReplying tojazzyco
      Yes, always do your DD before committing
      2023-06-22
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    • jazzyco
      As a retail investor, it's important to do your own research and not solely rely on the actions of hedge funds.
      2023-06-21
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for sharing and your advice. have a great week
      2023-06-19
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  • LMSunshine
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP
    Thanks for your excellent sharing❣️Read that you managed to meet up with some of the community writers like what you had hoped for👍
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    • KYHBKOReplying toLMSunshine
      I hope that one day, you will be comfortable enough to meet up.  all the best for the week. keep well.
      2023-06-19
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    • LMSunshineReplying toKYHBKO
      Haha I shy rem?
      2023-06-19
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks. I was hoping to meet you. [Cool]
      2023-06-19
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  • GCL08
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    Investment in this environment is getting more confusing 🤷‍♀️

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    • KYHBKO
      the market is not rational. no trade can also be a good trade
      2023-06-19
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  • Choubird
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for sharing.
      2023-06-20
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  • jooooooooj
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP
    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for your sharing.
      2023-06-20
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  • Missyuniversa
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

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    • KYHBKO
      all the best to you.
      2023-06-20
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  • RichLing
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看

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    • KYHBKO
      谢谢你的分享
      2023-06-19
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  • LoLoMiNi
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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    • KYHBKO
      all the best. thanks for sharing.
      2023-06-20
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  • aval
    ·2023-06-20
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    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for sharing.
      2023-06-20
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  • Lukasz
    ·2023-06-20
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    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for your sharing.
      2023-06-20
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  • jaffer
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    Part and parcel of all the way 

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    • KYHBKO
      well said.
      2023-06-20
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  • Kayrz
    ·2023-06-19
    TOP

    News and my muse ~ SF

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    • KYHBKO
      I have meeting SF closely as I have some proxy to data.
      2023-06-20
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  • WYing
    ·2023-06-19
    这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for sharing this.
      2023-06-20
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  • T2021102602
    ·2023-06-20
    这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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    • KYHBKO
      谢谢你的分享
      2023-06-20
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  • FT585
    ·2023-06-20
    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for your share
      2023-06-20
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  • Marcyy
    ·2023-06-19

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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  • Choubird
    ·2023-06-20

    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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  • tehcheong
    ·2023-06-20
    Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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