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Economic Calendar (10Jul2023)

Notable Highlights

CPI - will be the most watched economic news of the coming week as this plays an important consideration in the Fed’s coming interest rate hikes decision.

PPI - this speaks of inflation that hits the producers first before it reaches the wider market. If this ticks upwards, this can be read as more inflation to be passed on to the consumers in the coming weeks.

Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims will be announced on Thursday. We will also get an update on the unemployment rate. This would form important data points for the Fed to decide on the next interest rate adjustment.

Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, this implies demand erosion that can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending. The last crude oil saw a bigger drawdown than expected.

Earnings Calendar (10 Jul 2023) ~ BlackRock to sink or soar?

In the coming week, the new earnings season starts with the banks’ earnings. Can we expect good news from the banking sector? These are the few companies whose earnings are of interest namely, Delta, Pepsico, Citibank, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and BlackRock. Let us look at BlackRock in detail.

BlackRock’s Earnings‌

As you can see, BlackRock's net income has been increasing over the past 5 years, with a significant jump in 2022. Revenue has also been increasing, with a particularly strong increase in 2021. EPS has been increasing, but not as quickly as net income.

Overall, BlackRock's financial performance has been strong over the past 5 years. The company's net income and revenue have both been increasing. EPS has been increasing, but not as quickly as net income. This suggests that BlackRock is a well-managed company with a strong financial foundation.

Here are some additional details about BlackRock's financial performance over the past 5 years:

The company's net income growth has been driven by a number of factors, including the growth of the global asset management industry, the expansion of the company's product offerings, and the increase in its average fee rate.

Revenue growth has been driven by the same factors as net income growth, as well as the growth of the company's AUM.

EPS growth has been driven by the company's strong net income growth and its relatively low share count.

BlackRock is a leading global asset manager. The company offers a wide range of products and services, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and index funds. BlackRock is well-positioned for future growth, as the global asset management industry is expected to continue to grow.

For the coming earnings, investing has a forecast of 8.43 and 4.48B for the EPS and Revenue respectively. Will BlackRock be able to beat expectations?

News and my muse - Layoffs at Xiaomi, Student debt, PMI keeps falling

Xiaomi India undergoes reshuffling, major layoffs bring employees down to 1,000

Over half of all new cars sold in the U.S. by 2030 are expected to be electric vehicles. That could put a major strain on our nation’s electric grid, an aging system built for a world that runs on fossil fuels.

The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Biden’s mass student-debt cancellation plan thrusts borrowers back into a repayment system that millions had hoped they would never see again. 

Nvidia warned Wednesday that if the US imposes new restrictions on the export of AI chips to China, it would result in a “permanent loss of opportunities” for US industry.

When the Chinese see concerns in the market, the mode is switched from more spending to more savings.

As of 31 May 2023, the total outstanding amount of all advances under the BTFP was $107,376,686,000.

As of 30 April 2023, the total outstanding amount of all advances under the BTFP was $83,061,693,000.

The increase is $24.3B.

*U.S. JUNE ISM MANUFACTURING PMI FALLS TO 46.0; EST. 47.2; PREV. 46.9 *LOWEST SINCE MAY 2020

APOLLO: “Cellphone traffic in downtown San Francisco is now at 29% of pre-pandemic levels. For Chicago, it is 56%, and for New York City, it is 71%. The data compares the week of April 10, 2023, with the corresponding week in 2019.” [Slok]

With the coming failure of the USD, crypto looks likely to be the alternative.

Though I have my concerns about the lack of adequate regulations, security & governance, I do think that this asset class is too big to be ignored or denied.

bankruptcy on the rise

“The strength of the nation is not in its military but its economy” - Jamie Dimon

Have a divine discontentment - Jeff Bezos

At 265.2% gross leverage, hedge funds are the most exposed to markets in five years, adding to that leverage last week as it increased 2.5%. Source: JP Morgan

Indian refiners have begun paying for some oil imports from Russia in the Chinese yuan as an alternative to the US dollar for settling payments, according to media reports. Experts highlighted the move as a step toward the de-dollarization process in the three major economies amid the yuan’s increasing internationalization and efforts to fight dollar hegemony.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia said it would extend the 1-million-barrel-per-day production cut it had initially flagged for July into August, while Russia announced a 500,000 barrel-per-day decline in exports next month.

The World Meteorological Organization estimated that there’s a 90% probability of the El Niño event persisting through the second half of the year and it is expected to be “at least moderate strength.”

“Almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable” to hold rates steady given how quickly the Fed has raised rates and because those moves take time to influence economic conditions, FOMC minutes said.

Markets Ignore the Looming Debt Peril

The U.S. economy has been strong even as inflation has moderated. The weakest borrowers benefited because the most widely forecast recession in history simply refused to arrive.

Prices of commodities like crude oil and iron ore have been sliding this year, underlining a continuing economic rout across the globe and possible recession risks, market watchers told CNBC.

Data is said to be the new gold.

Data reveals & confirms the trend. Data empowers business to better profile their customers & understand their needs.

Data & energy are the commodities in the new AI driven economy.

If we are not paying, we are the product, not the customer.

Within the price lies hype, the lack of hype, fundamentals, moat and value. The lesser the hype, the better it is.

The key to the hype is the speed of entry and exit. Avoid being the bag holder.

‌@TigerStars  ‌

‌$S&P 500(.SPX)$  ‌