To The Moon

The US market rally pulled back in a holiday-shortened week. US Market Performance, Last Week: DJIA fell -2%, falling below its 21-day moving average (ma). S&P 500 fell -1.2% to just below its 10-day ma. Nasdaq fell -0.9% and holding its 10-day ma. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.49-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.00-to-1 ratio favored advancers Importance of the 10-day & 20-day ma: 10 day ma: a powerful tool to know if prices are moving in an uptrend or a downtrend. 20 day ma: provides many more reversal signals than a 100-day moving average. The US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data was the main catalyst that affected the US market on Friday (see below). Nonfarm Payroll measures change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, that accounts for majority of economic activity. A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for USD. Similarly, a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for USD. June 2023, NFP showed that US economy created 209,000 jobs (see above). This is -7.11% lower than analysts’ forecast of 225,000 jobs. At the same time, unemployment rate has fallen to 3.6%. Average hourly earnings increased by +4.4%, marginally above the forecasted 4.2%. NFP data suggested that labor market recovery was losing steam, as hiring was weaker in following sectors (i) leisure & hospitality, (ii) retail & transportation and (iii) warehousing. This was partially offset by hirings by (1) US government, (2) health care, (3) social assistance and (4) construction. US market fell, disappointed by the (a) weaker-than-expected job growth and (b) worried about the implications for inflation & monetary policy (see below CME Fedwatch). Latest CME Fedwatch Looking at the latest CME FedWatch, probability of the Fed raising interest rate by another 0.25% later this month has risen to 95% (see above). After the hike, the new target rate will range between 5.25% to 5.5%. When trading resumes on Mon,10 July 2023, US market is expected to face more volatility as traders continue to digest & react to the latest data released. Q2 2023 quarterly earnings will be in-focus as mega cap companies will present their results. Companies reporting includes - Thu, 13 July - $Pepsi(PEP)$ and $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$. Fri, 14 July - $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, Wells Fargo, $BlackRock(BLK)$ and $Citigroup(C)$. What I Would Do This Week: Continue to monitor my watchlist stocks. Will be extra cautious when I find a “good value” buy. This is because last week, a few of watchlist stocks exhibited “entry opportunity”, only to pull back amid the rangebound market. Will not assume things will work out. Do you think US market will continue to consolidate this week? Do you think the Mega cap companies will hand up a stellar report card, fortifying the US market in the process? Please give a “LIKe”, “Share” & “Re-post” ok. Thanks! Rating is very important to me. Hope you will consider “Follow me” to get firsthand read of my daily new posts. Thanks! @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents