To The Moon

There are a few factors to consider regarding the June CPI data and outlook:

First, the June CPI of 3.6% was indeed lower than expectations and the previous month's 4% figure. This was driven by some softening in prices for used cars, airfares, and apparel.

Secondly, however, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained high at 3.7% in June, signaling that underlying price pressures are still present.

Thirdly, Inflation pressures are likely to remain elevated in the near term due to supply chain issues, high commodity prices, and strong demand as the economic reopening continues. This could keep headline CPI figures above 3% for some time.

Then the Federal Reserve is watching inflation very closely and may consider another 25 basis point interest rate hike at its July meeting to curb rising prices. But much will depend on how the June and July jobs and inflation data come in.

Lastly, the Biden administration has argued that many factors pushing inflation higher are temporary, and prices should moderate over the next few months. But some economists are skeptical that inflation will fall dramatically in the near future.

In summary, while the June CPI number was slightly below expectations, there are still indications that inflation remains elevated. The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the data closely to determine the appropriate policy response. A 25 basis point rate hike still seems likely in July, but more rate hikes later this year will depend on how inflation trends.