If US Market Rally Today, Sell or Buy?
US - June 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
When news that US’s June 2023 CPI came in at a “mere” 3.0%, this was all it took for Wall Street and punters to jump in, regardless.
The market needed an excuse, and this was it.
Despite knowing that this is not the inflation marker that Mr Jerome Powell refers to each time he talked about “bringing inflation down to 2%”.
Oh well!
There was even speculation that the Fed will raise interest once in July 2023 and then pause.
This is stretching the truth a bit too far, don’t you think.
For knowledge & interest, the June 2023 CPI was the smallest YoY increase since March 2021; followed by May 2023’s 4.0% YoY increase.
When Market Closed On Wednesday:
DJIA: +0.25% (+86.01 to 34,347.43).
S&P 500: +0.74% (+32.90 to 4,472.16).
Nasdaq: +1.15% (+158.26 to 13,918.96). Best performer of the day!
Yesterday’s trading volume was a high of 11.20 Billion shares versus the 11.15 Billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
Gainers vs Losers.
On NYSE, advancing issues outnumbered declining ones by a 3.23-to-1 ratio.
On Nasdaq, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.93-to-1 ratio.
How I See US Market On 13 Jul 2023:
(1) Pre-market Indicators.
Both Wall Street and punters will try to continue and ride on CPI’s euphoria.
The pre-market indicators are conveying the same signals as well (see above).
(2) Companies Reporting Q2 Earnings.
There will hardly be disruptions coming from Q2 earnings reporting by companies today.
Solo Mega Cap company reporting earnings will be $Pepsi(PEP)$, under Consumer Defensive > Beverages- Non Alcoholic category.
Its area of influence should be “limited” to similar category stocks (companies).
(3) Producer Price Index (PPI) - June Data.
Recap PPI - May 2023 data
PPI has been “falling” & beating forecast from Feb 2023 to May 2023.
To recap, May 2023 PPI came in at 1.1% vs forecast 1.5%.
As a “generic” rule, US market reacts negatively when PPI shows inflation spikes of > a few tenths of a percent.
Conversely, it responds positively when PPI shows deflation.
So, if Jun 2023 PPI continues on a downwards trend, it might just boost market’s rally today.
Will the above 3 “factors” support or hinder the rally? To be seen!
I really hope the market will continue to rally.
Well enough that my “loser” stocks recover or closed to break even.
That is when I will be throwing these loser stocks out forever.
This Marie-Kondo housekeeping is really, really long overdue!
Do you think you will be buying your dream stock in a rally?
Do you think you will also be doing a housekeeping of your portfolio also?
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Hey would the shorts who quickly locked in their puts please show yourselves. We are all inquisitive to understand your thought processes! Showing clear signs of dysfunction.
Earnings, Revenues, multiples don't matter until they do....
Nothing and no one can stop the US stock market going up! Be confident guys!
big rally today! continue to buy??