To The Moon

Entering August is the time window when the US market was expected to enter high risks.

At present, although the economic data of the United States is still strong, the bearish voice of the market has gradually disappeared. Therefore, if some unexpected events happen in the future, it may lead to the overall correction of the market, so we must pay attention to it.

The biggest news over the weekend was that Moscow was hit by Ukrainian drones. Although Russia has not responded with further actions, it is hard to say that things will not get worse. If the incident intensifies, pushing up oil prices and CPI rises again, will the trend come again as last year?

First, the highlights of the US stock index

Excluding emergencies, the United States will meet non-agricultural data. The highlight of this non-agricultural data depends on whether this month's data continues to be miss the market expectation.

Because last month's non-agricultural data is not as expected, if the economic data is not as expected for two consecutive months, it may arouse the fear of market recession again. We should know that the reason for the sharp drop in US stocks last year lies in "high inflation (persistent rate hike) + less than expected economic data". Although there is not much room for the Fed to rate hike, maintaining high interest rates for a long time will also exceed market expectations, which will lead to selling, so next week's non-agricultural data must be closely watched.

Technically, so far, neither Nasdaq nor S&P has fallen below the 20-day moving average, so everyone can track it, and break the position to hedge. Options are preferred strategically, and the risk window is from August to October, so options can cover this period, and they are not afraid of a sharp drop in the market, but of an unprepared sharp drop.

Second, the soaring crude oil in July made CPI exceed expectations?

The oil price in July is the first monthly surge since the oil price fell last year. It can be predicted that the CPI in August (based on the data in July) may exceed the market expectation, which makes the market expect that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate hike (for the rest of this year). Since not many people in the current market believe that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate hike, such data is very easy to cause the reversal of market expectations and trigger price adjustment. Therefore, it is still doubtful whether the oil price bottomed out at present, waiting for the trend verification after the market breaks through US $83.

Technically, the oil price continues to rise after breaking through the 20-week moving average, and will face pressure around US $83 next week. Due to the sudden news of Moscow attack over the weekend, I am afraid that Russia will suddenly strengthen its military action, which will lead to the acceleration of oil price after breaking through US $83. Therefore, friends who want to fight for bulls suggest using call options to fight. Because it is the market triggered by news, it does not rule out the possibility of short-term and fast fluctuations, that is, the possibility of falling sharply after the pulse, so the position should not be heavy and trade in the short term.

$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2309 (NQmain) $$Dow Jones Main Link 2309 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2312 (GCmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2309 (ESmain) $

$WTI Crude Oil Main Link 2309 (CLmain) $