To The Moon

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for SPY again. Managed to secure some gains from SPY & PLTR calls as well as the covered call from META on the first trading day in September. 

Staying green is not about the profits but a boost to psychological health for all traders and investors moving into a new month, especially after the August weakness. Join me to navigate what September may bring next. 😎

Allow me to share some interesting insights on how the market could perform in the typically underperforming September in advance so that you can make an informed decision without missing the boat. Not financial advice 😉

Historically, the S&P 500 has shown a pattern of weakness during the third quarter of pre-election years, while the fourth quarter has typically been strong.

The weak quarter as we all know

Yes, we’ve heard it a million times that September is the weakness month of any given year. But what happened when the stock market was up 10% YTD with a weak August concocted? That September was 8 out of 10 times positive with a median 2.6% since 1950!

The truth is that September is bad when things are bad heading into it. That means the year could have started poor and the months leading to the 9th month are equally underwhelming.

Here's what the market performed in September the past 5 times it was down 10% or more YTD heading into September:

'74 down 11.9%

'01 down 8.2%

'02 down 11.0%

'08 down 9.1%

'22 down 9.3%

Boo!

However, what happens when the S&P 500 is up more than 15% by end august, with August a negative month?

These happened in 7 instances since 1950 (1954, 1955, 1967, 1975, 1995, 1997, 2019). In 6 of those 7 instances (86% probability), September was positive (average 2.9% return) and September to year end added an average of +8.7% more gains!

Only time will tell!

If you believe in dollar cost averaging, this September could be the bargain month to do so before the final quarter approaches before the bull run before the Santa rally.

The August weakness was greatly minimised from the steep recovery just this past week (see SPY & QQQ chart posted 2 days ago). So if the historical data holds true, this September could be a positive month after all. 

Don't simply follow the Wall Street or the main street. Better to make our own informed decision through research to make good profits. Will be posting some interesting setups over the long weekend to trade next week. Stay tuned! 😉

Weekly option trades summary

Please click Like 👍, Comment 💬 & Repost 🔄 this article found at the bottom of your screen. Follow me for the latest news, trading ideas & strategies to ride the market daily with profits! 🤑

@CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @KylerLee @koolgal @Aqa @Andreana