To The Moon

The August consumer price index (CPI) reports were “confusing” when they were released on Wed, 13 Sep 2023 morning.

For the 2nd time, both CPI and core CPI reports are not congruent (see below).

Comparison of CPI and Core CPI from April to August

• Both indexes usually report the same data trend.

• This means when CPI reported a monthly “fall”, so did Core CPI; until July 2023.

• July 2023 CPI reported a +0.2% gain from the previous month.

• July 2023 Core CPI reported -0.1% decline from June’s core data.

• August 2023 CPI reported a further +0.5% gain from July’s data.

• August 2023 Core CPI reported -0.4% decline from July’s core data.

By The Time Market Closed At 4pm

• DJIA: -0.20% (-70.46 to 34,575.53).

• S&P 500: +0.12% (+5.54% to 4,467.44).

• Nasdaq: +0.29% (+39.97 to 13,813.59).

• It was a “mixed” performance on Wed, 13 Sep 2023.

• US market will be bracing itself for another official report due out on Thu, 14 Sep 2023 at 08:30am US time.

• This time it will be US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for August 2023.

US historical PPI - Apr 2023 to Jul 2023

• Since April 2023, US’s PPI has been falling for 4 months until 11 Aug 2023.

• July’s PPI came in +0.6% higher than previous month report of 0.2% (revised).

• It was also +0.1% higher than analysts’ forecast.

• The PPI is often used as an indicator of inflation.

• A rising PPI indicates that the prices of goods and services are increasing, implying inflation is on the rise.

• Analysts’ forecast for August PPI is 1.2%, a whooping +0.5% higher than July’s forecast.

• Assuming “the average difference” between forecast vs actuals is +0.2%, this means August PPI actuals could be 1.4% or higher.

• This works out to be +0.6% rise from July’s PPI (actuals).

Will August PPI cause US market to continue its fall ? To be seen…

Will the debut of tech stock $Arm Holdings(ARM)$ be able to turn the US market around?

• All eyes will be on UK chip designer ARM, as it IPO on the US stock exchange on Thu, 14 Sep 2023.

• It is confirmed that Arm’s IPO price will be $51 per share.

• Arm’s IPO will be the largest since EV maker $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ IPO in 2021.

• It is already oversubscribed by 10 times when books closed on Tue, 12 Sep 2023.

• With all mega cap semiconductor companies (eg. Nvidia, TSM, AMD, $Intel(INTC)$ , Apple, Amazon, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , Samsung, Cadence, Synopsis) already taken a stake in the 90% private allocation, Arm is a fireproof winner.

• CEO Rene Haas said that “ARM is poised to become a bigger and more profitable business, not just because of the industry wide boom in (a) cloud computing & (b) artificial intelligence, but also due to a major change in how it operates“.

• Do you think US market will continue to fall today?

• Do you think UK chip designer ARM debut will be able to influence UK market to rise?

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