On Friday, financial markets experienced a tumultuous session. The $DJIA(.DJI)$ recorded a 0.8% decline, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped 1.2%, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell by 1.6%. This decline followed a rebound observed the previous day, which turned out to be a false alarm, according to analysts. The session was characterized by high volatility due to the convergence of several events.
Most active stocks : $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$
Most active stocks
Key Events of the Week:
The week was marked by several significant economic events, including:
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Annual inflation reached 3.7% in August, marking the second consecutive month of price gains this year. Concerns about inflation persist despite these figures.
PPI (Producer Price Index): The Producer Price Index increased by 0.7% in August, surpassing expectations, primarily due to rising gasoline prices. However, the core index, excluding food and energy, experienced a more moderate increase.
ECB Meeting: The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its target interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, reaching 4.0%. This decision was made despite a downward revision of economic growth forecasts in the eurozone.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: This index registered a slight decline in early September, indicating that households are feeling the effects of inflation, particularly the rise in energy prices, as a possible government shutdown looms on the horizon.
Market Scenario:
The current market is characterized by persistent uncertainty regarding inflation. While economic data such as the CPI and PPI show signs of inflation, investors increasingly believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting. The likelihood of a pause in rate hikes is on the rise, and this trend could extend into November and December.
Despite inflation concerns, markets have experienced occasional rebounds, as evidenced by the strong performance of Arm Holdings' IPO . However, volatility has remained a key element, partly due to the expiration of options and stock index futures contracts, leading to sudden fluctuations.
VIX
Ultimately, the market will remain attentive to the Fed's comments at its next meeting, which may contain indications about the future direction of interest rates. Updated economic projections from the Fed, especially regarding GDP growth and the unemployment rate, will also be closely monitored to guide future investment decisions.
SPX Levels
Key levels: 4400 - 4450- 4500
Upper area:4475 - 4500 - 4525
Lower area:4450 - 4425 - 4400
SPX Levels
Agenda
In the coming week, the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as well as the Bank of England and BOJ meetings on Thursday and Friday.
Friday will mark the release of the main September PMI indicators in Europe and the United States.
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SPX "Market Rollercoaster: Inflation, Arm Holdings IPO, and Volatility"
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