$NVO's Market Value is Close to $TSLA. Will You Buy it Now?
The market value of Weight-loss Drug company $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ‘is catching up with that of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? A difference of $8 billion.
It can be see that $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ‘s catch-up to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's market value mainly happened in 2023.
With the explosion in sales of GLP-1, the stock prices and market value of $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ have soared. Among them, $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ has become the company with the highest market value in Europe, and its market value even exceeds the GDP of the entire country of Denmark. .
How big is the market for weight loss drugs? (public information)
GLP-1 is also known as the "miracle drug for weight loss."
For example, $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ’s oral semaglutide can reduce weight by an average of 36 pounds in 68 weeks, and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ GLP-1R/GIPR dual-target agonist Tirzepatide can reduce weight by 15.7% in 72 weeks ( 31.2 pounds).
First, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is one of the most effective targets for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.
According to the Insight database, there are currently 12 GLP-1 drugs approved for marketing around the world (excluding drugs withdrawn from the market), including $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ’s liraglutide and semaglutide, and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ ’s dulatose Peptides, etc., the druggability of the target has been fully verified.
Judging from sales, the sales of $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$'s liraglutide (Victoza), semaglutide (subcutaneous injection preparation + oral preparation) and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$'s dulaglutide (Trulicity) in 2022 will reach 1.746 billion respectively. US dollars, US$10.065 billion and US$7.44 billion, all are blockbuster drugs.
If you add in the marketed varieties of GLP-1 and GLP-1/GIP such as $AstraZeneca PLC(AZN)$, $Sanofi SA(SNY)$ and $GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$ , global sales of GLP-1 drugs will exceed $20 billion in 2022, compared with only $8.353 billion in 2018 .
What are the future market expectations of the GLP-1 market:
According to GlobalData, driven by the global upsurge in research and development of GLP-1 drugs and the impressive data of related products in the field of weight loss, the global weight loss drug market is expected to reach $37.1 billion in 2031, with a compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2032. is 31.3%. $Pfizer(PFE)$ also predicts that the total market size of GLP-1 drugs may approach $100 billion in less than ten years.
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ could capture nearly half of the fast-growing global weight-loss drug market, equivalent to about $33 billion in potential sales by 2030, JPMorgan Chase said. JPMorgan raised its price target for $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ by 25% to DKK 1,500 by the end of 2024 and reiterated its "overweight" rating, citing Novo Nordisk's "outstanding growth prospects through 2030 and the Best visibility in the industry as we grow.”
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ target price
The median target for 12-month price forecasts for $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ among 22 analysts from Tiprank is $99.02, with the highest estimate being $117.50 and the lowest estimate being $51.48. The median estimate is -46.94% lower than the last price of 186.61.
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$’s currently quoted at $186.61, up 37.88% this year. Do you dare to buy it?
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FDA 483 and the stock drops $4. That's a complete over reaction plus its not even listed on the FDA website. All Pharma/medical device companies get 483's all the time. It could be a simple as a particle count in a clean room that was out of spec and get's corrected the same day. This is a joke. It should go right back up
By the time "competitive products come on line" NVO and LLY will have 100% of the market share and have had it for years. Good luck being 3rd to market against established drugs. The 12 X sales won't be that since sales are going to be substantially higher in the future.
Wow do you really think that a weight-loss drug company is worth that much money??
You are right. I've been in NVO since 2005. The dividend was minuscule at the time.
Nothing is saying it might impact production, that would hurt as they are maxed out.