$NVO's Market Value is Close to $TSLA. Will You Buy it Now?

The market value of Weight-loss Drug company $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ‘is catching up with that of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ? A difference of $8 billion.

It can be see that $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ‘s catch-up to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 's market value mainly happened in 2023.

With the explosion in sales of GLP-1, the stock prices and market value of $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ have soared. Among them, $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ has become the company with the highest market value in Europe, and its market value even exceeds the GDP of the entire country of Denmark. .

How big is the market for weight loss drugs? (public information)

GLP-1 is also known as the "miracle drug for weight loss."

For example, $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ’s oral semaglutide can reduce weight by an average of 36 pounds in 68 weeks, and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ GLP-1R/GIPR dual-target agonist Tirzepatide can reduce weight by 15.7% in 72 weeks ( 31.2 pounds).

First, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is one of the most effective targets for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.

According to the Insight database, there are currently 12 GLP-1 drugs approved for marketing around the world (excluding drugs withdrawn from the market), including $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ’s liraglutide and semaglutide, and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ ’s dulatose Peptides, etc., the druggability of the target has been fully verified.

Judging from sales, the sales of $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$'s liraglutide (Victoza), semaglutide (subcutaneous injection preparation + oral preparation) and $Eli Lilly(LLY)$'s dulaglutide (Trulicity) in 2022 will reach 1.746 billion respectively. US dollars, US$10.065 billion and US$7.44 billion, all are blockbuster drugs.

If you add in the marketed varieties of GLP-1 and GLP-1/GIP such as $AstraZeneca PLC(AZN)$, $Sanofi SA(SNY)$ and $GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$ , global sales of GLP-1 drugs will exceed $20 billion in 2022, compared with only $8.353 billion in 2018 .

What are the future market expectations of the GLP-1 market:

According to GlobalData, driven by the global upsurge in research and development of GLP-1 drugs and the impressive data of related products in the field of weight loss, the global weight loss drug market is expected to reach $37.1 billion in 2031, with a compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2032. is 31.3%. $Pfizer(PFE)$ also predicts that the total market size of GLP-1 drugs may approach $100 billion in less than ten years.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ could capture nearly half of the fast-growing global weight-loss drug market, equivalent to about $33 billion in potential sales by 2030, JPMorgan Chase said. JPMorgan raised its price target for $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ by 25% to DKK 1,500 by the end of 2024 and reiterated its "overweight" rating, citing Novo Nordisk's "outstanding growth prospects through 2030 and the Best visibility in the industry as we grow.”

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ target price

The median target for 12-month price forecasts for $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ among 22 analysts from Tiprank is $99.02, with the highest estimate being $117.50 and the lowest estimate being $51.48. The median estimate is -46.94% lower than the last price of 186.61.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$’s currently quoted at $186.61, up 37.88% this year. Do you dare to buy it?

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  • ChrisColeman

    FDA 483 and the stock drops $4. That's a complete over reaction plus its not even listed on the FDA website. All Pharma/medical device companies get 483's all the time. It could be a simple as a particle count in a clean room that was out of spec and get's corrected the same day. This is a joke. It should go right back up

  • By the time "competitive products come on line" NVO and LLY will have 100% of the market share and have had it for years. Good luck being 3rd to market against established drugs. The 12 X sales won't be that since sales are going to be substantially higher in the future.

  • HarryCox

    Wow do you really think that a weight-loss drug company is worth that much money??

  • HardyJenny

    You are right. I've been in NVO since 2005. The dividend was minuscule at the time.

  • Nothing is saying it might impact production, that would hurt as they are maxed out.