To The Moon

The Federal Reserve meeting in September has ended, and the result is not surprising. At least friends who have read my post should be psychologically prepared. In fact, the results of the current Fed meeting are not very important, because they are fully expected by the market.

The only variable is Powell's speech after the meeting. Hawks and policy doves are the usual ways for the Fed to balance the market, so we should not be surprised by the current rapid decline.

At present, there is a saying in the market that because the United States needs an election next year, the Biden administration will try its best to maintain the good economic data through a series of measures in order to be re-elected, and the good economic data will cause the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation without rushing to cut interest rates or even continue the rate hike, which will cause the market's expectation of rapid interest rate cuts to be delayed at once, thus triggering a decline.

In the bearish time window of US stocks from August to October, in fact, the reason is only the inducement. After all, the accumulated increase in the first half of the year is large enough, and it is easy to trigger a substantial correction.

So where is the bottom of the current US stock correction? Based on S&P, according to the current technical state, the technical form of head and shoulder top is formed Then the measured decline is about 280 points, and the main contract of S&P is about 4100 points.

Of course, this is only a measurement of the decline, and continuous bad news may increase the decline, so there is no need for everyone to rush to bargain-hunting, at least wait for October to observe. As for the decline of Nasdaq, it will not be too little, and 13500 is only a temporary guess, so it is better to observe conveniently, and a simple 20-day moving average can be tracked.

Will the decline of US stocks drive other commodities down together?

The Fed's "Super Eagle" rhetoric has triggered an increase in US bond yields and boosted the the US Dollar Index, which is bad for commodities. However, due to different fundamentals, the volatility of different commodities will vary greatly. Taking precious metals as an example, the upward breakthrough of gold price needs the doves' guidance of the Federal Reserve

However, the current trend is still suppressed by the 60-day moving average, so the strategy is very simple, without breaking the 60-day moving average, and there is no need to be bullish. As for whether it will fall sharply, there is no certain news at present, so it is better to deal with it according to the volatile market.

Recently, the arbitrage of gold inside and outside the market, which has been discussed the most, suggests that you look back at my live broadcast last week, which has a detailed explanation. The existence of this kind of price difference has its policy background, and it is best to touch it less without spot basis.

As for energy commodities, crude oil has hit the $90 range, that is, the dumping cost price range of US strategic oil reserves mentioned earlier, which is extremely vulnerable to some policies of the US government. Therefore, it is not recommended to continue to be bullish, but there is a reduction in production, and the decline is estimated to be very limited.It is better to trade in the range of 80-90. However, American natural gas usually does not perform very well during the period of strong crude oil, so don't be too hopeful, otherwise the price difference between contracts will be lost greatly.

$WTI Crude Oil Main Connection 2311 (CLmain) $

$NQ100 Index Main Connection 2312 (NQmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2312 (ESmain) $$Dow Jones Main Connection 2312 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2312 (GCmain) $