To The Moon

Personally, I thought it was a mixed trading day on Wed, 27 Sep 2023. When market called it a day: DJIA: -0.20% (-68.51 to 33,550.27). S&P 500: +0.02% (+098 to 4,274.51). Nasdaq: +0.22% (+29.24 to 13,092.85). This type of “depressed” trading behaviour will persist, until the US government declares that it is in a shutdown (see below). Everything just have to hit the bottom before it could start to bubble up & recover right? All of a sudden, things will be “looking up”. How could it not, when its already at the bottom of the pit? LOL! Looking at the 3 composite indexes futures, things are not looking great! The work-in-progress Senate plan that will help to cushion a full blown shutdown will serve to prolong the anticipated agony. This in turn would further drive US market down, in my view. Finally, the standoff has begun to attract “unwanted” attention of ratings agencies. Both Moody's and Fitch warning shutdown could damage the federal government's credit-worthiness; pushing [a] borrowing costs (by the govt) and [b] national debt even higher. Government shutdown seems to have evolved becoming a norm? There have been 14 government shutdown since 1981 (see above). Chart shows the timeline of the 14 US government shutdowns from 1981 to 2020, and the current potential shutdown looming by Oct. 2023 if Congress fails to enact spending measure. Even though US market performance hasn’t exactly been stellar for the past few days and even weeks, the Energy sector has been enjoying its cyclical “rush”. Perhaps the concerted effort by [a] OPEC+, [b] Saudi Arabia and [c] Russia to further reduce oil output have finally driven the message home and that is oil supply will not be abundantly available until end December 2023. With US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at historical low (see above), the BIden administration will no longer be able to draw down its stockpile unreservedly io keep oil price “artificially low” for too long. This explains why oil price has managed to sustainably stayed above the $90 per barrel resistance recently. The day US stops drawing from SPR, will be the day oil price will shoot through the roof. This is why energy stocks like $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ , $Chevron(CVX)$ , $Occidental(OXY)$ will become the darlings very soon. Unfortunately, the same could not be said for Renewable Energy stock $NextEra(NEE)$. After all the hype about green energy etc.. when it comes to the crunch, they are still no match for fossil fuel. Is there a possibility that the US government is not driving hard enough for renewable energy adoption? Or there is “indecent” money being thrown around by fossil lobbyists, gunning for governmental “support”. On Wed, 27 Sep 2023, NextEra Energy Partners stock collapsed. It fell by -17.1% after the company of wind, solar, and battery storage renewable energy projects revised its growth expectations for the next few years. Previously, NextEra Energy had targeted a payout growth rate of +12% annually. With the latest revision, growth expectations have been “reduced” to a range of from 5% to 8%, with a target of about 6%. Root cause for the revision were [a] tighter monetary policy and [b] higher interest rates, affected financing needed to grow distributions at the previously forecasted 12%. The nail to the coffin must have been the qualifying statement that the revision will last through "at least 2026." In case you are interested, my other “PICK” posts. Enjoy: Time to invest in Amazon? Read & discuss. Click here! to read & give a “like” ok. Thanks. Is JP Morgan right about oil @ $150 this time? Click here! to read. Invest in IPO stock Cainiao? Read & decide. Click here! to read. Do you think oil stock will continue to rise until year end? Do you think there is investment opportunity in renewable energy stocks? Please give a “LIKe”, “Share” and “Re-post” ok. Thanks. Rating is very important (to me). Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post/s ok. Thanks. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents