S&P500 fail to shine on Friday; Closed below MA5; Points to another leg down to 420/416; Weekly Chart also shows some pullback to go before bounce!
Basis
Basis : MA50 on a weekly chart is often a trend indicator one uses to easily see if we are bullish or bearish.
Basis : Price action above MA50 ==> bullish (RSI > 50)
Basis : Price action below MA50 ==> bearish (RSI < 50)
Weekly Chart
- Still within Uptrend channel since Oct 2022; Past week candle actually showed a good support off the channel
- We are coming up to a key support level/range of 420/416
- MA50 is coming up to support at that range too (confluence)
- The larger bear flag zig-zag (from 3 Jan 2022) does point to a full play out to 320 ==> Don't panic. Observe price action. Plenty of support levels to break to get there)
As they say, Bears jump out the window down; Bulls take the stairs, and that first major step is coming up at 416/420! Look out!
I'm neutral to the market trend at the moment. I will go bearish when 416 breaks.
S&P500 Weekly Chart - 30 Sept 2023
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⚡️If we shutdown, we may dip say 2-3%. But what happens during shutdown? You'd be surprised market actually RECOVERS during shutdown. During the shutdown in 2018-2019, the market recovered the ENTIRE DIP, whole +15%.
I'd wait for a break below 356 to reshort or retest of 360.. not swinging anything. Enjoy your weekend ✌
Well I think SPY might be able to pull off a repeat motion that replicates the movement of the last month. I think fear is at extremes today the shutdown was confirmed.