To The Moon

1. MAJOR INDEXES RETURNS

• The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ retreated for the fourth week in a row, slipping to its lowest level in nearly four months. The index fell less than 1% for the week, outperforming the $DJIA(.DJI)$ , while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ managed to post a fractional gain.

• The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell nearly 5% in September, declining for the second month in a row in a momentum shift that’s eroded much of the stock market’s year-to-date gains. At Friday's close, the index was down almost 7% from its July 31 peak. 

• As of last Friday, the$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gained 0.39% last week and$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ gained 0.29% weekly.

Data from Tiger Trade, as of 30 Sept.

• The U.S. Congress passed a temporary appropriation bill to avoid a government shutdown, but the deadlock may happen again in 45 days.

• We’ll get the latest reports on the jobs market this week, including the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP’s National Employment Report tracking private sector payrolls, and the nonfarm payrolls report for September.

• $Constellation(STZ)$ and $Levi Strauss & Co(LEVI)$ will report earnings this week.

2. SECTORS AND STOCKS OF $S&P 500(.SPX)$

Energy sector keep positive return in both weekly and monthly performance in September.

The top 10 winners of$S&P 500(.SPX)$ in weekly are $ResMed(RMD)$ , $Trimble Navigation(TRMB)$ , $Gap(GPS)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $DexCom(DXCM)$ , $Teradyne(TER)$ , $Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA)$ , $Nike(NKE)$ , $Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$, $Sealed Air(SEE)$

Data from Tiger Trade, as of 30 Sept.

4. MACRO FACTORS

Yields push even higher: With the notable exception of 2-year Treasuries, yields of most categories of government bonds extended their recent climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4.50% for the first time since October 2007. Similarly, the 30-year yield eclipsed 4.70%, the highest since February 2011.  

Inflation moderation: The FED’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation rose at the slowest monthly pace since November 2020. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose at a 3.9% annual rate in August, excluding volatile food and energy prices. With those categories included, inflation was a more modest 3.5%.  

Housing trouble: The average U.S. mortgage rate climbed to the highest level in 23 years by one measure, and sales of new homes fell short of expectations. The government reported that new home sales fell 8.7% in August relative to July. 

Earnings outlook: Ahead of third-quarter earnings season, more U.S. companies have scaled back their earnings-per-share expectations than raised them. As of Friday, 74 companies in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ had issued negative guidance versus 42 that provided a more positive outlook than they had previously, according to FactSet. Initial earnings reports are scheduled to be issued in mid-October, starting with some of the biggest banks. 

5. THE WEEK AHEAD : September 2-6

Monday

• Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index

• Construction spending, U.S. Census Bureau   

Tuesday

• $McCormick(MKC)$ , $Cal-Maine(CALM)$ , and $Novagold Resources(NG)$ report earnings

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Wednesday

• $RPM International Inc(RPM)$ , $Acuity(AYI)$ , and $Helen Of Troy(HELE)$ report earnings

• ADP National Employment Report, ADP

• Factory orders, U.S. Census Bureau

• Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index 

Thursday

• Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor

• Trade balance, U.S. Census Bureau  

Friday

• $Constellation(STZ)$ , $Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.(LW)$, $ConAgra(CAG)$, and $Levi Strauss & Co(LEVI)$ report earnings

• Jobs and unemployment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Consumer credit, U.S. Federal Reserve 

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