Universe宇宙
2023-10-11

Amid escalating tensions in the Israeli-Hamas conflict, investors turned to traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds, driving up bond prices and causing yields to decrease. [Thinking] 

Wars (including the one between Ukraine-Russia) needs oil, and Winter coming to Europe means Europe also need oil and gas. Living expenses in countries like Singapore remains high with recent hikes in water, electricity, gas, transport and many many others.

How can investors be so certain that oil-producing countries will not further reduce their oil supply since both wars is going to be a long one? [Thinking] Or maybe the question is what make investors think that the war will be a short one? [Thinking] 

Will the rate hike pause cause inflation to come back stronger? [Thinking] Probably nobody knows the answer [Helpless] , but a clever investor will always prepare for such scenario because when this happen, stocks price will crash again and millions are selling to get out of the stock market.

Be prepared! The worst for 2023 has not been unleashed yet! [Chuckle] Always remember to do your homework and don't copy, hahaha. [Happy] 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

$Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ 

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[Thinking] 

Will rate hike pause and US treasury yield peak as expected?

@Tiger_comments：
On Tuesday, 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by around 17 basis points, falling below 4.7%. Amid escalating tensions in the Israeli-Hamas conflict, investors turned to traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds, driving up bond prices and causing yields to decrease. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Despite of this decline, US treasury yields remain elevated and put pressure on stock market $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and Fed officials. Fed officials express dovish signals: rate hike may pause again in November? Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday, The recent runup in US long-term bond yields is puzzling. Logan, the Dallas Federal Reserve president and a member of the rate-setting committee, also said that there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate” if long-term bond interest rates remain elevated. As a result, the futures market continues to decrease bets on rate hikes in November and December. Over 70% probability of rate hike pause this year Expert predicts moderate oil prices despite inflation concerns Commentator said oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ won’t surge too much this year. According to FactSet, the September CPI report is expected to increase 3.6%; core CPI is expected to show an annual increase of 4.1% in September. While higher oil and gas prices could put upward pressure on prices in coming months, James Kou, a renowned futures trader with over 30 years of experience, stated, We might have already seen the highest price for US oil this year, which was around $95. The US oil market might undergo a correction above $80. Many investors think that US treasury yield has peaked because the impact of crude oil prices on the Federal Reserve's core inflation concerns is relatively limited and the pause in 2023 is more likely to happen. But analysts also mentioned to be cautious if you want to go long on bonds now. Has the US treasury peaked or not? Will September CPI bring good news and reinforce the rate hike pause idea? How do you view the dovish comments by Fed officials? Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~
Will rate hike pause and US treasury yield peak as expected?

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