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Bank earnings preview: What to expect for big banks

@Capital_Insights
$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Citigroup(C)$ , $BlackRock(BLK)$ , and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ will kick off the financial sector’s reporting season on October 13, followed by $Bank of America(BAC)$ and $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ on October 17, and $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ on October 18. Financials performance by sector: Insurance industry is the standout The Financials sector is expected to see a 8.7% year-over-year earnings growth rate, ranking fourth among all sectors. The Insurance industry is the standout performer with a 64% growth rate, significantly boosting the sector. Excluding insurance, Financials' growth drops to 2.1%. Sub-industries like Property & Casualty Insurance and Multi-line Insurance show strong growth, while Reinsurance is expected to recover. In the Financial Services industry, Multi-Sector Holdings (18%) and Transaction & Payment Processing Services (10%) are poised for double-digit earnings growth. Banks show a 4% growth. Diversified Banks are set for 7% growth, but Regional Banks might decline by -15%. What to focus on big banks earnings $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Expected strong growth in net interest income, potentially offsetting a drop in trading revenues and fees. Forecasted EPS: 3.89, a 25% rise from the same quarter last year. Trading above its 2023 opening price, indicating market confidence in its stability. $Citigroup(C)$ : Focus on managing costs and expenses due to recent restructuring. Forecasted EPS: 1.18, a 23% drop from the same quarter last year. Stock trading below its 2023 opening price, showing room for potential gains with positive earnings surprises. $Bank of America(BAC)$ : Operating expenses rose in the inflationary environment of 2023. Forecasted EPS: 0.80, a 1% drop from the same quarter last year. Trading below its 2023 opening price, making it attractive to investors anticipating a rebound. $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ Expected rise in revenues driven by its wealth management division. Forecasted EPS: 5.34, a decrease of 36% from the same quarter last year. Earnings known to be volatile, but a rebound expected from Q2. $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ : Revenues expected to drop due to the impact of bond yields on its stock. Forecasted EPS: 1.28, a 15% drop from the same period last year. Financial sector faces multiple concerns Key concerns for this earnings season include the impact of the Q3 increase in the 10-year Treasury yield on capital levels, stability of deposits, slowing loan growth, and rising loan loss provisions due to credit quality concerns. Non-interest revenues face challenges, including weak mortgage volumes and stable credit card spending amid worsening credit. Asset management revenues might decline due to market-driven reductions in assets under management. Stringent cost control measures are expected.
Bank earnings preview: What to expect for big banks

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