To The Moon

The market is watching Fed officials talk for insight into the outlook for interest rate policy. Netflix, Tesla will report earnings after the bell.

The Fed will release the latest edition of the Beige Book on the economy on Thursday (19th), assessing current economic conditions, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Friday (20th), and the market is waiting with bated breath for important clues about the dynamics of interest rates in Powell's remarks.

In addition to Powell, Fed officials including second-in-charge Jeffrey Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who is a voting member this year, Dallas Fed President Richard Logan and New York Fed President John Williams will also speak, along with Fed governors Tim Cook and Charles Waller and bank regulator Jeffrey Barr.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, who once predicted a U.S. stock crash in 2022, said he is sticking to his cautious outlook on U.S. stocks, predicting a 10 percent decline by the end of the year.

Wilson insisted that most stocks are not doing as well as they look, and that the dominance of the tech giants is shrinking and the rally has waned. He thinks the combination of Wall Street's downward revision of corporate earnings expectations and shaky consumer confidence will leave the S&P 500 at 3,900 by the end of the year, implying 10 percent downside.

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Summary of semiconductor stock option transactions

While the Biden administration will place more restrictions on China's ability to buy advanced semiconductors, Commerce Secretary Raymond Mundo said the new measures are aimed at closing loopholes in regulations issued last October and are likely to be updated at least once a year.

Washington is seeking to tighten controls on graphics chips and advanced chip-making equipment sold to Chinese companies for artificial intelligence applications, as well as additional checks on Chinese companies that try to evade export restrictions by rerouting shipments to other countries, prompting a slump in semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia.

Due to the sudden occurrence, the institutional trading options orders of semiconductor products and semiconductor equipment companies were less, and the direction was not uniform, and there were both bottom-buying strategies and bearish strategies:

NVDA：

1 sell $NVDA 20231020 495.0 PUT$

2 buy $NVDA 20240517 440.0 PUT$

AMD：

1sell $AMD 20231103 102.0 PUT$

2 buy $AMD 20231110 85.0 PUT$

Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$JPM 20240315 145.0 CALL$ $SNA 20231020 270.0 PUT$

Buy TOP Vol:

$DAL 20231117 36.0 CALL$ $PLUG 20231110 8.5 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$NVDA 20231020 495.0 PUT$ $MSFT 20231103 330.0 CALL$

Sell TOP Vol:

$M 20231117 12.0 CALL$ $NEM 20231215 42.5 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.