To The Moon

Today's one-sentence theme: The rate-cut trade continues, with the broader market hitting new highs and entering high-level consolidation. Today's new highlights: Berkshire's big bet on Google, TSMC's revenue confirming AI demand, and PLTR/AAOI leading the gains. The main play remains — "don't chase highs, use Sell Puts on pullbacks to position." I. Today's New Focus Areas 1. Berkshire Hathaway Q2 Holdings: Heavy Bet on Google (Significant) $4.5 billion in buybacks, $6.8 billion acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison, $10 billion into Google, $10 billion added to Japan exposure. Interpretation: The last time Buffett made a bet of this magnitude was on Apple. This Google position is a powerful long-term bullish signal. → Google is a strong candidate for long-term Sell Put strategies (bu

📊 Points TSMC announced July revenue with year-over-year growth slightly above expectations, up 44.7% YoY, indicating that AI chip demand continues to maintain strong growth momentum. Bezos made his first share sale of the year in Amazon, with an initial sale of $350 million on 8/3, planning to sell a total of 15 million shares worth approximately $4 billion. This will exert some selling pressure on Amazon's stock price. ⚠️ Educational sharing, not investment advice.

Color Legend 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: ✅ All 4 Trades Profitable TSLA Sell Call: 8/7 expiry 340 — Note: Ample buffer on the upside. AAPL Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 290 — Note: No material negative surprises from earnings. AMD Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 400 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 400 Put). INTC Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 90 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 90 Put). The seller environment was broadly favorable this week, but there is an important risk reminder in the broader market section below. II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ) Coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention + surging eq

One-sentence theme for today: Storage earnings are wrapping up and entering a valuation re-pricing phase; gold is breaking out on rising rate-cut expectations; SPCX faces its first massive lock-up expiry. The common thread across all three: it's not a time to chase highs, but a stage to position cautiously at support levels via Sell Puts. I. Storage Sector: Earnings Behind Us, Entering Valuation Adjustment Phase SanDisk (SNDK): Down ~10.7% pre-market, breaking below the 120-day moving average, with next-quarter revenue guidance below consensus. Western Digital (WDC): Down ~14% pre-market, still holding above the 120-day MA; results fell short of the elevated expectations set by STX's earnings. Key variable: SNDK disclosed an aggregate LTA revenue floor of $93.9 billion — establishing a val

I. Fundamentals SanDisk and Kioxia are 25-year NAND partners, jointly operating the world's largest NAND production facility. Kioxia's earnings have a decisive impact on SNDK. Bullish: Kioxia's Q2 pricing rose +70%, and long-term agreements (LTAs) increased — signaling hyperscaler confidence in demand durability. Bearish: Kioxia's Q1 results and guidance missed expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the AI flash memory pricing cycle. Kioxia subsequently announced a 1-for-3 stock split and a buyback of up to ¥800 billion to stabilize sentiment. Key observation: With the stock having already fully corrected in July, Kioxia did not decline post-earnings. It is reasonable to expect SNDK may behave similarly, with price action likely oscillating within the expected range after earni

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock 1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure ① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry; ② AI business uncertainty; ③ potential Tesla merger complexity; ④ lower-than-expected passive index buying. As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level. 2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value: Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion; Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 bil

I. Fundamentals Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs. Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY). Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW). AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028. TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%). Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term ups

Noteworthy Points 1. AMD and SPCX Report Earnings After the Close on 8/4 (Tuesday) Given that both ARM and INTC delivered earnings beats, AMD, as the leading competitor in the same space, is unlikely to post numbers inferior to those two. Furthermore, AMD's post-earnings price movement will likely have a knock-on effect on ARM and INTC (sector-linked co-movement). 2. SPCX: High Growth Potential, But Two Near-Term Wildcards While SPCX possesses extremely high growth potential, two factors warrant attention: On 8/6 (two trading days after earnings), $116 billion in locked-up shares will become eligible for sale — the potential selling pressure should not be overlooked; On 8/3, Elon Musk echoed a follower's view on X that "this is a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" — a bullish sentiment

I. Spending + Debt Issuance + Cash Flow Risks For this earnings report, Amazon faces the risk of upward revisions to capital expenditures or operating cash flow falling short of expectations. Competition for retail market share remains intense, which could further pressure retail margins. Amazon commands a significant share of the credit market, coupled with persistent oversupply from ongoing bond issuance — its credit performance is expected to lag behind the sector. Amazon is projected to add another $25–35 billion in debt by the end of 2026. Even the bond market is pricing in risks from Amazon's debt issuance and spending — this originates from the same valuation-killing dynamic seen with META and GOOGL. The make-or-break factor on the equity side is whether AWS growth can justify these

I. Core Perspective: Apple's Key Factor Is Not Capex, but Expectation Realization Unlike MSFT / META / GOOGL, Apple is not a story of heavy AI spending and compressed free cash flow — it is a cash cow by nature. Therefore, for this earnings report, the specific numbers are not the most critical factor. The key question is: Apple has already risen 16.88% this month — have the good news already been priced into the stock? The current price sits at approximately 32x FY27 P/E, approaching valuation peaks. That is the true variable that will determine post-earnings price direction. June quarter iPhone likely beat slightly, but September quarter gross margin guidance may be on the low side, with gross margins expected around 46.8% (consensus 47.4%). Services growth faces headwinds, with the App