To The Moon

Market attention has shifted towards earnings season, with the U.S. stock market extending its rally. Spotify's stock surged 11.4% after exceeding Wall Street's first-quarter expectations and issuing an optimistic second-quarter guidance. Delivery giant UPS rose 2.4% after beating profit forecasts.Option market data shows that S&P 500 options continue to bet on far out-of-the-money put options, with call open interest shrinking, expecting a 5% decline over the next 2 months. QQQ options continue to bet on far out-of-the-money puts, expecting volatility over 3.7% before May 17th. Small-cap Russell 2000 options continue to add far out-of-the-money put positions, anticipating a potential 4.5% decline by June.Details: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$<

Market attention shifted to earnings season, with U.S. stocks extending their rally. Spotify's shares surged 11.4% after beating Wall Street's Q1 expectations and issuing an upbeat Q2 guidance. UPS rose 2.4% as the delivery giant's profits exceeded forecasts.Options market data showed continued accumulation of far-dated put options on the S&P 500, implying expectations of another 5% decline over the next two months. For QQQ, far-dated puts kept adding, suggesting an 8% drop is priced in over the same period. On small-caps, Russell 2000 options saw further build-up of far-dated put positions, indicating a potential 4.5% decline in May.Details:The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of put options dominating. Open call interest declin

With Middle East tensions easing, investors await tech giants' earnings reports and key U.S. inflation data as the S&P 500 reclaims the 5,000 level, ending a six-day plunge. Tech stocks led the broader market rebound, as investors pinned hopes on whether the "super earnings week" can live up to lofty AI expectations.Options market data shows narrowing expected gains for the S&P 500 options, with gains under 2.2% by May 10th. QQQ's expected trading range widens, with continued buying of straddle combinations. Small-cap Russell 2000 options see increased bets on longer-dated put options, suggesting a potential 5.6% decline before June.Details:For the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options, the overall traded sentiment is bullish, with sell

Fading rate cut hopes and geopolitical uncertainties fueled a sell-off in large tech stocks, leading to a Black Friday for US stocks. The S&P 500 broke below the 4,000 level. The Nasdaq saw its sixth consecutive day of declines, the longest losing streak in over a year. American Express lifted the Dow Jones to close higher.Options market data showed expectations for a narrowing decline in the S&P 500, with a drop of less than 4.4% expected by May 17th. For QQQ, the expected decline narrowed, with a 2.1% drop projected by May 17th. For small-caps, Russell 2000 options implied a tightening range, with a 1.5% decline and 6.7% upside cap expected for May.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall showed a slightly bullish tra

Impacted by hawkish Fed rhetoric, strong economic data, and rising Treasury yields, the S&P 500 saw its first five-day losing streak since October 2022 this week. Semiconductor stocks sold off heavily, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging, hurt by TSMC's downbeat outlook weighing on overall chip growth expectations.Options market data showed diverging investor expectations for the future. S&P 500 options reflected slightly bullish sentiment, but upside was expected to be limited near-term. Nasdaq options had a slightly bearish tilt, with investors positioning for relatively contained downside risks. For small-caps, Russell 2000 options trading indicated bullish sentiment, with investors mainly taking defensive stances by selling puts.Details:The

Investors are focused on earnings season, with risk sentiment impacted by tensions in the Middle East and hawkish Federal Reserve. Selling intensified in April. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, the longest streak in over four months.Travelers Companies (TRV) plunged 7.41%, becoming one of the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices. United Airlines soared over 17% after forecasting stronger-than-expected numbers for the quarter, boosting the NYSE Arca Airline index by 3.82%, its best single-day gain since February 6.Options market trading data show that investors are starting to take both long and short bets. S&p 500 options have a bullish bias, and investors are buying straddled portfolio games to accelerate short-term shifts.

After Fed Chair Powell hinted that the central bank is not in a rush to cut rates, U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday (16th), with the 2-year yield briefly touching 5%. U.S. stocks were volatile before closing mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite falling for the third straight day, while the Dow Jones snapped a six-day losing streak, led by UnitedHealth.Options trading data shows diverging investor expectations for the future. SPY options reflect a slightly bullish sentiment, with investors betting on limited upside in the short-term. QQQ options have been bullish on June far-dated calls for two straight days, though remaining bearish near-term. For the small-cap Russell 2000 ETF, investors are primarily defensive, selling put options.Details:

The Middle East unrest and stronger-than-expected retail sales data weakened expectations for Fed rate cuts, causing the VIX fear gauge to surge, and stocks continued to fall on Monday (15th). The Dow Jones fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq both closing below their 50-day moving averages.The S&P 500 index options market overall had a slightly bullish sentiment. The number of call options held increased rapidly, but put option open interest remained above the one-year average level. The most favored new call options were the September expiry 600 strike calls, reflecting investors' expectations that the S&P 500 index will rise nearly 19%. For put options, investors used a spread strategy, expecting the S&P 500 index to fall no more

US Major Stock Index Futures All RiseAccording to IDC data, Apple's iPhone shipments in the first quarter fell 9.6%, with a 17.3% market share, ranking second. Tesla issued a company-wide email, announcing a 10% global workforce reduction. Reports suggest Intel may launch a Chinese special version of the Gaudi 3 AI accelerator chip. News also indicates that Richard Liu may personally livestream, with JD.com responding that they are preparing and will appear in a new form.In the short term, the S&P 500 index is expected to remain below 520. The major options trades include an April 17 expiry 525/520 call spread, suggesting the index will top out around 520 that week.For the medium term, the S&P 500's downside may be limited. The May 17 expiry 486/489 put spread strategy implies a dr

Producer Price Index Lower than Expected, Investors Buy on Dips, Tech Stocks Rebound - NVDA Up Nearly 4%, Apple Has Best Single-Day Performance in 2024The options market has divergent views on the short-term trajectory of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but remains cautiously optimistic about the medium-term outlook. However, it is more pessimistic about the performance of individual stocks like Morgan Stanley.The S&P 500 options market is slightly bullish, but the high open interest in put options reflects market divergence over future movements.The major S&P 500 options contracts indicate the index is expected to stay below 522 until next Monday, while a more conservative outlook projects it will remain above the 100-day moving average of 491 by June 21.For the Nasdaq 100, new option