To The Moon

Part 1: Market Recap July 16: S&P 500 closed at 7,533.77, up only +0.46% month-to-date in July. But during the same period, Micron (MU) plunged 26% in July, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) crashed 17.21%. The root of this semiconductor crash lies in the Korean stock market — as of today, the KOSPI index has plunged 19.53% in July. Part 2: The Three Early Warning Signs of the Crash 1️⃣ Option Warning Signs (Smart Money Was Already Moving) June 18 | DRAM saw a large bearish trade: buying the 8/21 expiry 60 Put$DRAM 20260821 60.0 PUT$  , with 50,000 contracts traded, notional value $21.75 million, still open. Same day | MU also saw a large bearish trade: buying the 6/18 expiry 990 Put

SK Hynix (SKHY) has seen extreme volatility since its listing, with IV surging to 130% — a classic setup where fundamentals are solid but short-term panic prevails, often creating opportunities for deep OTM option sellers. This post walks you through the fundamental logic, market sentiment, and the complete trade setup behind a Sell Put. Part 1: Why Won't It Fall Much? HSBC's report laid out the current situation in the Korean stock market clearly: the market is indeed facing the risk of a "Minsky moment" due to high leverage — the leverage factors that drove stock prices higher over the past few months are now reversing, and the daily rebalancing of single-stock leveraged ETFs amplifies selling pressure during downturns. HSBC estimates that if stock prices fall another 10%, just SK Hynix

The highlight of earnings season is here: TSMC reports on Thursday (July 16). This post takes you from fundamentals, volatility calculations, and large order signals all the way to strategy positioning for three scenarios — a complete guide on how to trade earnings without stepping on landmines. Part 1: Fundamentals — What Is the Market Watching? TSMC is a company that reports monthly results, so revenue and profit are public information that has largely been priced into the stock price well in advance. Market expectations for this report are very high: full-year revenue guidance is expected to be raised to 40%, gross margin above 67%, 2026 capex raised to $56 billion, with total capex over 2026–2028 expected to reach $206 billion. The two most closely watched metrics are gross margin and

Earnings season is here, and many traders want to use options to catch big moves. But earnings options are exactly where most people get burned: they get the direction right, yet still lose money. Today we'll cover two key things: how to properly estimate earnings-related volatility, and how to understand IV Crush — "the buyer's enemy and the seller's friend." Part 1: Volatility Is Not a Gut Feeling How much a stock will move after earnings isn't something you need to guess — the market has already priced in the expected range. The calculation is straightforward, using the ATM Straddle: Straddle Price ≈ At-the-Money Call Premium + At-the-Money Put Premium Market's Expected Move ≈ Straddle Price ÷ Current Stock Price This is your baseline: only when the actual price move exceeds this number

$TSLA$ Key News: Cybercab autonomous electric vehicle enters mass production at the Texas factory, aiming to increase utilization to 50-60 hours per week. Energy segment emerges as a new growth driver; Shanghai energy storage factory operational; $200 billion budgeted for AI and Energy sectors in 2026. FSD advances localized training in China, though constrained by regulations, using existing data for tuning. Options Analysis: Current Implied Volatility (IV) is relatively high, indicating market expectation for significant price movement. Overall sentiment leans bullish. This Week (2/13): Expected to swing widely within $400 - $430. Next Week (2/20): The range may widen to $395 - $440. Key Support: $400 - $405. This interval has highly concentrated put option (PUT) open interest, forming a

Major US tech companies reporting earnings this week include Tesla, Microsoft, META, AAPL, and storage giants STX, SNDK, and WDC. Earnings Focus Points: 🚀 Tesla's earnings focus has shifted from short-term financials to long-term tech breakthroughs. Key post-earnings price drivers will be: 1) Substantive progress on frontier tech like Robotaxi deployment without safety drivers; 2) The timeline for FSD to reach "eyes-off" unsupervised versions; 3) Whether 2026 delivery, gross margin, and free cash flow guidance are more pessimistic than market consensus, heightening concerns over near-term profitability and cash burn. 🚀 Microsoft's earnings focus is on whether Azure cloud growth can exceed expectations, the inflection point in Copilot adoption and its impact on Office ARPU, and if concerns

Hello everyone. Today, I'd like to use the Ctrip stock crash incident to discuss managing short put positions.What Happened:💡 Cause: On January 14th, based on China's Anti-Monopoly Law, the State Administration for Market Regulation formally launched an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance.💡 Impact on Stock Price: Ctrip's US-listed stock (Ticker: TCOM) closed at $75.68 on January 13th and plummeted 17% to close at $62.78 on January 14th. Ctrip's Hong Kong-listed stock (Ticker: 09961) closed at HKD 569 on January 14th and fell sharply intraday, down 20% to HKD 452 on January 15th.💡 Impact on Business: Ctrip issued an announcement stating that all company operations are normal and that the investigation has not yet had a material impact on its business.Changes in

$TSLA$Key News:Analyst New Street raised Tesla's target price to $600 (from $520), maintaining a Buy rating, expected to boost the stock price.Tesla stock fell 4.14% to $432.96, primarily due to BYD outselling Tesla in two major European markets (Germany) (BYD surged to 23,306 units, Tesla declined to 19,390 units), sparking market concerns.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is very high, indicating market expectation for sharp price swings. Sentiment is slightly bullish, but institutions have already bought large put options for hedging, increasing volatility risk.This Week (1/9): Expected to swing widely within $425 - $450.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to $420 - $460.Key Support: $420 - $430. $430 is this week's key support; $420 is a dense defensive line for next w

$09988$Important News:Zheshang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba-W (09988) with a target price of HKD 189.09, optimistic about the growth of its AI cloud platform business and potential for margin improvement.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is moderate, indicating market expectation for some price movement. Options trading volume suggests cautious, slightly bearish sentiment.This Week (1/9): Expected to fluctuate within HKD 137 - 154.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to HKD 135 - 158.Key Support: HKD 144-145. HKD 144 is the recent monthly technical low; HKD 145 is a concentration area for put option (PUT) open interest.Key Resistance: HKD 150-154. HKD 150 is a dense resistance area for call option (CALL) open interest; HKD 154 is the upper bound of this we

$TSLA$Key News:Tesla Model 3 is under investigation by U.S. regulators for emergency door defects, which could lead to recall risks and impact short-term stock price.FSD v14 system passes the physical Turing test, indicating progress in autonomous driving technology.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is at historically extreme lows, suggesting the market expects very stable price movement. Call option trading is active, indicating positive sentiment.This Week (12/26): Expected to trade within a mild range of $475 - $495.Next Week (1/2): The range may widen slightly to $480 - $500.Key Support: $480. This is a recent technical low and a key defensive line for short-term bulls.Key Resistance: $490 - $495. $490 is a concentration area for call option (CALL) open interest; $495 is