To The Moon

1. Weekly Market Overview Last week, U.S. equities overall maintained strength, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high. Although semiconductor stocks like AMD, INTC, and ARM pulled back at one point as the market reassessed Meta's AI demand, they still closed higher for the week — showing capital hasn't left the AI main line. What truly drove risk appetite higher was September nonfarm payrolls adding only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations, with the prior two months revised down. Market expectations for an October rate hike dropped rapidly from about 70% to about 20%, reigniting the rate-cut trade. This week marks the start of Q3 earnings season, with market focus shifting from how much is being invested in AI to whether that investment can convert into revenue and profit. Therefore, the c

① What's Happening Today Core Theme: Nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, rate-cut trade heats up; AI capex is still expanding, but capital is starting to diverge. Jobs Cooling: U.S. September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000; July and August data were revised down by a combined 60,000. Traders trimmed bets on an October rate hike, and U.S. equity futures rallied afterward. Short-term focus on reactions in bonds, financials, and tech. AI Financing and Compute: A Broadcom-led syndicate reportedly raised up to $60 billion in financing to support AI infrastructure demand from companies like Anthropic. NVDA rose on optimistic roadshow interpretations, but AVGO fell — showing that AI demand growth and financing costs remain two separate trading thre

① What's Happening Today Key Summary: U.S. equities closed mixed higher yesterday, but gave back gains notably into the close. Capital style favored software over semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Today's Three Most Important Things: 1 | MU Earnings Clearly Beat, But Gross Margin Guidance Was Weak MU's revenue, EPS, and next-quarter revenue/EPS guidance all came in above market expectations. The only notable blemish was next-quarter gross margin guidance dropping to about 86.25%. Management stated that the first fiscal quarter is expected to be the low point for FY2027 gross margins, with gradual improvement thereafter. → Today, watch whether MU's post-earnings price action can lift the semiconductor sector, and whether HBM demand can offset gross margin pressure. 2 | Long-End Treasury

① What's Happening Today Key Point: Ahead of Micron's Earnings, the Semiconductor Trade Logic Is Shifting from "AI Demand" to "Memory Prices + Supply-Demand Tightness." U.S. equities were mixed yesterday, with QQQ roughly flat and the semiconductor sector up about 1.2%. However, long-end Treasury yields continued climbing, with the 30-year rising to 5.59% — a new high since 2002 — capping broader market valuation expansion. On the AI front, OpenAI DevDay continued to reinforce enterprise Agent commercialization expectations, with AI infrastructure-related names like ORCL and BE strengthening notably. What really needs watching today is Micron's (MU) earnings. The market's focus isn't just on whether this quarter's results beat expectations — more importantly: Whether DRAM/NAND price increa

① What's Happening Today AI compute trade is cooling. The semiconductor index fell 1.7%, down as much as 3.6% intraday. CPU-related names like AMD, Intel, and ARM weakened. The core reason: the market is revising down expectations for CPU compute demand driven by Meta's Muse — the "buy up all the world's CPUs" trade logic is cooling. Meta falls 5%, AI application expectations begin to reprice. The market is waiting for OpenAI's developer conference on one hand, while starting to question the actual pace at which AI Agents will change consumer and business models. Meta has already rallied significantly in the short term, and its valuation has entered a higher range. Optical communications pull back in sync. CRDO fell 8.7%, with COHR, ALAB, and CIEN weakening. The market is reassessing optic

① Weekly Market Overview Last week, the core tension in U.S. equities shifted from "can AI keep rallying" to "can AI growth + high rates + energy risk be digested simultaneously." On the AI front, Meta's Muse topped the U.S. App Store free chart, with Meta surging 12.9% for the week. AMD, Intel, and Arm also strengthened in tandem, as the market began trading the new CPU, inference, and consumer entry-point demand that AI Agents are expected to drive. On the other hand, Middle East tensions escalated again. On 9/26, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making energy supply risk a key variable for oil prices and inflation expectations this week. This week's core focus: AI looks to earnings and event catalysts, while the market must simultaneously wat

1. What's Happening Today Rates Side Leans Pressured, But Tech Sees Selective Catalysts. TLT Falls for a Second Consecutive Day: Treasury yields continue rising, with the market repricing roughly 40bp of cumulative hikes this year. The probability of an October FOMC hike has risen to about 70%. QQQ Rebounds, Crude Oil Pulls Back: The U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing energy supply risks. AI Infrastructure Diverges: ORCL delayed payment arrangements for its Jupiter data center project, and ARM weakened on Jupiter order exposure. Anthropic signed a 7-year CPU capacity commitment with AKAM, lifting AKAM, INTC, and AMD. IWM: Currently stuck at the 30-week MA. Watch today whether it retests the 60-week MA or reclaims the 30-week MA. 2. What Money Is

1. What's Happening Today Middle East Risk Escalates: U.S.-Iran talks remain deadlocked, the Strait of Hormuz shows no prospect of reopening, and Brent has broken above $100 again. Long-End Rates Rising: U.S. 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs, with the market re-trading the "higher rates for longer / further hikes" narrative. AI Entry-Point Competition Heats Up: Meta positions Muse as its core consumer AI product, targeting 1 billion users; OpenAI is rumored to launch a personal Agent as soon as this week; Google, threatened by AI Agents, fell 3.8% yesterday. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against Defending Against Two Things: Oil Prices + Tech Pullback. 🟠 Buy Side VIX | 2026/12/16 14 Call — 25,600 contracts.

1. What's Happening Today U.S.-Iran Resume Contact, Oil Prices Pull Back: The U.S. and Iran have resumed contact since June, Saudi Arabia is gradually restoring some crude supply, and Brent has fallen back below $100, increasing near-term pressure on the energy sector. Burry Adds to AI/Memory Shorts: Michael Burry has expanded short positions in MU, NBIS, PLTR, and others. The core concern is that after new memory supply is released, prices may come under pressure. AI Theme Still Burning: NVDA still saw short-dated Call buying yesterday, with the market continuing to trade AI capex and semiconductor demand. 2. What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against 🟠 Buy Side: Energy Defense + Policy Offense + Short-Term AI XOP | 2026/11/20 175 Put 9,000 contracts, $5.175 million. Open interest was o

1. What's Happening Today Meta Surges 11.4%: AI agent Muse tops the U.S. App Store free chart, and the market has begun trading the impact of AI Agents on consumer entry points and transaction scenarios. Semiconductors Rally in Sync: AMD, Intel, and Arm rose nearly 10%, 12%, and 17% respectively, as the market extends the trade to CPU inference demand driven by Agents. AI Commercialization Diverges: Shopify integrates Muse, while Amazon restricts its proxy-purchasing feature citing security and data access concerns. Alibaba Cloud Signals Expansion: Based on management's plans, Citi estimates Alibaba's external cloud revenue could reach $160 billion by FY2033. Middle East Energy Risk Escalates: Geopolitical tensions and energy shipping news are disrupting oil prices — watch the energy secto