To The Moon

Color Legend 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: 3 Floating Profits TSLA Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 336, entry price 1.44, current price 0.05 — profitable. GLD Sell Put, 9/18 expiry at 400, entry price 2.57, current price 2.41 — floating profit. COIN Sell Put, 9/4 expiry at 200, entry price 1.66, current price 0.61 — floating profit. Review: All three trades remain safe — TSLA is holding above 336, COIN above 200, and GLD above 400. The seller environment was favorable this week, supported by NVIDIA's earnings delivery and broad market stabilization. However, Jackson Hole (Warsh's debut) is the biggest variable t

One-sentence theme: NVIDIA beat earnings, breaking above 220 and challenging 225. But block trades are collectively betting on "gold / Hong Kong stocks / China ADRs topping out" ahead of Jackson Hole (betting on a hawkish Warsh and a dollar rebound). The tone: range-bound trading at key levels — don't chase highs; wait for Warsh to set the tone. I. Sentiment Focus NVIDIA Challenges 225 (Earnings Delivered) Post-earnings, the stock broke above 220, with revenue doubling YoY beating expectations, and next-year guidance calling for 70% revenue growth — strong execution. Key observation: Can it break 225? (GEX shows 225/230 is a super Call wall, a hard ceiling). If the breakout fails → consider Sell Calls (capture IV crush + cap upside). Block Trades Collectively Betting on "Top Formation" — H

One-sentence theme: NVIDIA reports earnings after the close tonight, with massive block trades betting on a surge to 230. Anthropic's "$30 trillion pie-in-the-sky" narrative continues to hype the AI atmosphere. I. Sentiment Focus: The Night Before NVIDIA Earnings Tonight (8/26) after the close is the make-or-break event for the entire market this week. Options block trades have already taken a clear side (see below). Outlook: GEX shows 200 is support / a Triple Witching magnet, while 230 is a super Call wall. IV is elevated. There is a high probability of a double beat, but "already fully priced in + circular financing concerns + historical post-earnings pullbacks" → the risk of failing to rally or even pulling back is higher. Strategic tone: Post-earnings IV crush + September 18 Triple Wi

I. Fundamentals Earnings expectations: Revenue and profit expected to double-beat, with strong guidance. Revenue is expected at $94–95 billion (guidance at $91 billion, beating by $3–4 billion), up 16% YoY. Next-quarter guidance is expected to be raised to $107–108 billion. Drivers: GB300 rack shipments ramping (total rack units up 15% QoQ to 17,000–18,000), initial Vera Rubin shipments + Vera CPU volume ramp, and solid cloud capex. Several key points to watch: China H200 is an upside lever: Approved but shipments are slow — every 100,000 units shipped generates approximately $3 billion in incremental revenue, making it an important variable for October guidance. Addressing competition: In response to the ASIC/AMD share-erosion narrative, management will emphasize platform flexibility + Ve

One-sentence theme: Smart money is buying — Pelosi is betting on AI power (BE/INTC), while Jack Ma and Joe Tsai are adding to Alibaba. At the same time, crude oil plunged 3% (Middle East easing). I. Sentiment Focus: Big Players Buying in Sync Pelosi family bets on "AI Power" On 7/24, purchased 10,000 shares of INTC + 15,000 shares of BE, along with long-term call options expiring in June 2027$BE 20270617 100.0 CALL$  $INTC 20270617 50.0 CALL$. BE (Bloom Energy) = solid oxide fuel cells, capable of providing on-site power directly to data centers and large commercial clients → a "power supply concept stock" tied to AI data center expansion. Jack Ma and Joe T

One-sentence theme: Alibaba's largest-ever HK$80 billion secondary offering drained liquidity from the Hong Kong market, triggering a sharp drop in Hong Kong stocks. U.S. equities are in a wait-and-see mode between Bessent's trillion-dollar buyback (which the market doubts) and Friday's Jackson Hole symposium. I. Sentiment Focus: Alibaba's Massive Capital Drain Bleeds Hong Kong Alibaba plans a HK$80 billion secondary offering at HK$112.7 per share — the largest-ever new share placement in Hong Kong history, aimed at solidifying its AI leadership position. This is the direct cause of today's Hong Kong market plunge: a placement = discounted new shares = dilution + supply shock. The placement price of HK$112.7 is below the current price → pulling the stock price directly toward HK$112.7, whi

The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators — for simulation reference only 👆 📊 This table answers: Where the stock price is likely to be this week (the range). Whether the seller premium is expensive right now (IV percentile rank). How far out the strike price should be placed to stay safe (Column 8). The ranges calculated in this table are like "probability of rain," not a "guarantee of no rain." The usage is simple: place the sell put strike price further below the lower end of the range. The higher the percentile rank, the more favorable it is for sellers. 📊 Noteworthy Points NVDA is the most watched volatility story this week: Implied weekly move 6.1%, IV30 at 42.61%, ran

Color Legend 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: 1 Win, 3 Losses COIN Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 150, entry price 1.17, current price 0.68 — profitable. INTC Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 95, entry price 1.70, current price 5.10 — loss. DELL Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 410, entry price 3.16, current price 6.37 — loss. NVDA Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 200, entry price 0.85, current price 1.27 — loss. Review: The broader market unexpectedly pulled back this week (short-squeeze fade + Treasury yield pressure), leaving Sell Puts generally in floating losses. However, all contracts expire at month-end (8/28) with strikes that ha

One-sentence theme: A massive rotation is underway — gold at 4,500, crude oil +3%, bitcoin short-squeeze rally (hard assets rampage), while U.S. stocks continue to pull back. Fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and risk appetite has shifted toward physical assets. I. Sentiment Focus: Hard Assets Surging Across the Board Gold breaks above 4,500: The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling of long-end repurchase scale (injecting liquidity) → gold surged to 4,500. However, pre-market Thursday saw the 30-year Treasury yield rebound sharply, returning to pre-announcement levels → fiscal stimulus failed to suppress long-end rates, and U.S. equities continued their pullback. Crude oil +3%, maintaining strong upward momentum. Bitcoin short squeeze! Surged to 72,000, with $2.7 bi

I. Cloud Business Beats Expectations Alibaba is expected to report Q1 FY2027 revenue with customer management revenue down 8% YoY, while cloud revenue is expected to grow 45% YoY (accelerating). Losses from delivery and flash purchase investments are narrowing rapidly, leading to upward revisions in FY2027 EPS forecasts. Cloud revenue continues to accelerate with improving profit margins quarter-over-quarter, which could serve as a catalyst for the stock in the coming quarters. Core catalysts (AI + Cloud): Qwen 4.0 foundational model upgrade in Q3 2026; September 22 Alibaba Cloud Apsara Conference: capital guidance updates, cloud business outlook, and new product launches; Potential T-Head semiconductor spin-off in Q2 2027. II. Volatility Estimates and Key Levels **U.S.-listed BABA (curren