To The Moon

Good morning Tiger community, 

In my analysis of Tesla's Q3 2023 earnings report, I will examine the key financial and operational aspects that shed light on the company's performance. While Tesla has enjoyed a reputation for rapid growth, this quarter presents some challenges that warrant a closer look.

I. Financial Analysis: Sluggish Growth in Deliveries and Lower-Than-Expected Revenues and Profits

Compared to the previous quarter's robust revenue growth, Tesla reported Q3 2023 revenues of $23.35 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year growth, which is significantly lower than analysts' expectations of a 12% year-over-year increase to $24.06 billion. This slower growth can be attributed to a noticeable decline in the delivery rate of vehicles and a drop in the per-vehicle price.

Tesla's pricing strategy to capture market share is still in effect, and this contributed to its weak profitability in Q3. The company reported a net profit of $1.853 billion, a 44% decrease year-over-year. Its earnings per share of $0.53 also fell short of the expected $0.62.

Adjusted for non-GAAP accounting standards, Tesla's net profit in Q3 was $2.318 billion, a 37% decrease, with earnings per share of $0.66, also a 37% decrease from the expected $0.74. These disappointing financial results have raised concerns in the market.

II. Operational Analysis: Soft Growth in Deliveries, Declining Gross and Operating Profit Margins

1. Soft Growth in Deliveries

In Q3, Tesla's delivery growth slowed down significantly, with only an 18% increase in production (43,050 vehicles) and a 27% increase in deliveries (43,510 vehicles) compared to the same quarter last year. This is a stark contrast to previous quarters, where delivery growth was more robust. Tesla's goal of achieving over 50% year-over-year growth for the full year now faces challenges due to the lackluster Q3 performance.

2. Declining Gross and Operating Profit Margins

Tesla's aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share has adversely affected its gross margin, which has been on a downward trend. In Q2 2022, Tesla reached its historic high with a 29.11% gross margin. However, in Q3 2023, the gross margin dropped to 17.9%, falling short of the expected 17.4%. The operating profit also decreased by 52%, with an operating profit margin of 7.6%. This continuous decline in profit margins has persisted for several quarters.

III. Other Business Segments

Tesla has been actively involved in various other businesses, such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and energy-related endeavors, including energy storage and solar energy. These segments have demonstrated positive growth in previous quarters, contributing to Tesla's diversified portfolio.

The introduction of the Optimus robot stirred considerable excitement, although its production and market impact remain uncertain. Tesla is expanding its AI training capabilities and enhancing the robot's hardware. While Tesla has announced production timelines for humanoid robots in the past, these ambitious targets are subject to change.

IV. Cybertruck Production and Future Outlook

Tesla's electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, received an overwhelming response with nearly 2 million reservations. Tesla plans to commence deliveries of the Cybertruck on November 30th. However, it will take time for the Cybertruck to become a significant growth driver for Tesla, and it remains a critical project for the company's future.

V. Technical Perspective

In recent times, Tesla's stock price has rebounded, but the company's overall performance remains a key factor in limiting further stock price growth. The immediate 7% stock price drop following the Q3 earnings release is a testament to the challenges Tesla faces, including lower-than-expected data, sustained pressure on gross margins, and the ongoing aggressive pricing strategy.

Conclusion:

Lastly, In my opinion, Tesla's Q3 2023 earnings report reveals a significant slowdown in delivery growth, lower-than-expected revenues and profits, and continuous pressure on gross and operating margins. While Tesla has diversified into other business segments and is eagerly anticipated for its Cybertruck production, it remains to be seen how long it will take for the company to achieve a financial turnaround. Therefore, I maintain a neutral outlook on Tesla's performance in the coming quarters, as there are still significant uncertainties to address.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

Thank you for reading and happy weekend ahead! 

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