To The Moon

Treasury rates were volatile after a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with the 10-year rate approaching 5%. Powell spoke at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. Data in recent months suggest the central bank is making progress toward its twin goals of full employment and price stability, but inflation remains too high and more data pointing to sustained above-trend growth or an end to cooling in the labor market could pose risks to progress against inflation and lead to further tightening, he said.

Powell said there is no evidence that policy is too tight, but given the uncertainties and risks, and the progress the central bank has made so far, the Fed will be careful to determine the extent of additional policy tightening and how long to maintain restrictive policy based on the volume of data available, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks.

But he added that if long-term Treasury rates continue to rise, it could reduce the need for further rate hikes.

CME's FedWatch tool showed as of Thursday there was about a 97 percent chance the Fed would hold rates steady at its next meeting, up from 93 percent a day earlier, in a sign investors are increasingly betting the Fed will hold fire at its next meeting.

More than 15 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far this quarter, and more than 74 percent have beaten Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet.

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FANNG option active

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ appears to sell long-term PUT options: $TSLA 20260116 175.0 PUT$ $NVDA 20250117 395.0 PUT$

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ appears a sell CALL: $GOOG 20240920 180.0 CALL$ $MSFT 20231103 325.0 CALL$

The Nvidia Options portfolio open order strategy is consistent with the single-leg options strategy:

• sell $NVDA 20240315 350.0 PUT$

• buy $NVDA 20240315 290.0 PUT$

Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$JPM 20231020 157.5 PUT$ $JNJ 20231117 165.0 PUT$

Buy TOP Vol:

$TSM 20231117 110.0 CALL$ $CCL 20251219 2.0 PUT$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$NVDA 20250117 395.0 PUT$ $TSLA 20260116 175.0 PUT$

Sell TOP Vol:

$TSLA 20231027 227.5 CALL$ $QD 20231117 2.0 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.