To The Moon

Last week's we mentioned that the continuous fermentation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has a similar impact on the financial market to the situation during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict last year, which is manifested in the fact that safe-haven assets continue to rise while risky assets are relatively weak, that is, the stock market is weak, while gold and crude oil are relatively strong (crude oil becomes a safe-haven asset as soon as the war comes out),

So the current market logic is not new. With the "best efforts" of various governments, the Israeli offensive has been slightly delayed, but whether it will subside is still inconclusive, so the market trend next week is still closely related to the current news trend.

First, the US Stock Market Decline May Not Be Over Yet

Last week's technical analysis showed that the S&P did not break the 20-week moving average, thinking that the index was still in a downward trend. So from a technical point of view, there is nothing to say, just track it.

Moreover, there is still one and a half weeks before the end of October. It is suggested that we should wait and see, and wait for the news to be further clear. And from the index decline,There is still a range of 100 + points from my expected 4100 points.

It is not excluded that there will be a rebound at this point after continuing to kill next week, so short-term traders, please pay close attention.At the same time, we can use the method of short-term call options to buy the stock index, which I said in the live class before. This kind of option strategy has a good effect on the risk control of short-term trading, and is suitable for the subsequent "flying knife" market.

Second, how high can gold rise?

Gold continues to surge, and the V-shaped reversal after the National Day is really caught off guard.

Since the bottom, the gold price has risen nearly 200 + points, and it has reached the important price of 2000 points. From a general technical point of view, the probability of correction of the gold price here is not small.

Of course, it is a pity that there is no decent news to cooperate now. Unless there is news such as Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, there is still a great risk in shorting gold. Short-term trading should still be arranged with last week's high point as a stop-loss point. Before the war sentiment subsides, the pulse trend of gold price will still make a comeback soon. Of course, as long as the conflict subsides, the gap of gold price after National Day will still be filled in the future, which is a matter of time.

3. Will oil prices continue to rise?

If the Palestinian-Israeli conflict does not spread to other countries in the Middle East, the oil price will still fluctuate at a high level.

The potential main line that the United States expects the oil price to fall still exists. The key point depends on whether Saudi Arabia will really cooperate with the United States to relax production reduction and suppress oil prices next year, or continue to oppose the United States.

If you can't see that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will subside in the short term, then the oil price will naturally not be too weak.

Moreover, the risk premium given by the current crude oil options is very high, and the volatility is close to the level of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which at least shows that the market is very worried about the current events, and it will be more expensive to use buying crude oil options as hedging.

Therefore, don't think about buying crude oil options to make profits in the near future, which will do more harm than good, and it is not as easy to deal with as short-term futures trading.

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