To The Moon

In the upcoming earnings reports from tech giants $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$, there's no doubt that both companies have a strong track record of success. However, the current economic environment presents several challenges that could potentially dampen the enthusiasm, even if they beat earnings estimates.

Valuations at All-Time Highs

The Magnificent Seven PE ratio (Sentiment King) as of June 22, 2023.

One of the immediate concerns surrounding both Google and Microsoft is their sky-high valuations. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks, which include $Apple(AAPL)$, Microsoft, Alphabet, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and others, have led a remarkable rally, accounting for a significant portion of the S&P 500's 12% year-to-date gain. As of late, their valuations have swelled to unprecedented levels, with an average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.5, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 18.3.

This soaring valuation raises the bar for these companies as investors have priced in substantial growth and success. Even if Google and Microsoft beat earnings estimates, the market might react with skepticism or indifference given the already elevated expectations.

Increasing Competition from Rising Treasury Yields

Another significant challenge for these tech giants comes from the bond market. Treasury yields are currently at 16-year highs, with U.S. government bonds now offering risk-free yields of around 5% or more. This provides investors with an alternative avenue for generating returns, and it could potentially divert capital away from equities.

ETF Performance YTD Returns as of October 20, 2023

As Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding stocks increases, making it crucial for companies like Google and Microsoft to demonstrate that their growth and profitability can outpace the relatively safer and more lucrative returns from bonds. If they fail to do so, investors may decide to shift their investments into the bond market, putting pressure on the stock prices of these tech giants.

Economic Uncertainties and Global Headwinds

In today's global landscape, economic uncertainties abound. Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and inflation concerns are just a few of the many challenges that companies like Google and Microsoft have to navigate. These uncertainties add an extra layer of complexity to their ability to deliver strong results.

The ongoing pandemic, although massively receding, still casts a shadow of uncertainty over the business environment. Remote work dynamics and evolving consumer behavior continue to influence both companies' operations, making it harder to predict their future performance. I just recently recovered from Covid positive myself.

In conclusion, while Google and Microsoft have consistently been at the forefront of innovation and growth, the present economic environment introduces several hurdles that they must clear to maintain their upward trajectory. The combination of soaring valuations, competition from rising Treasury yields, and global uncertainties make it a challenging landscape, even if their earnings surpass estimates. As investors, we must remain vigilant and assess the performance of these tech giants in light of these headwinds.

Disclaimer: My views and insights are provided for informational purposes only. I do not offer financial or investment advice. It’s essential to conduct your research before making any financial decisions. The volatile nature of financial markets necessitates caution and due diligence. [Observation] 

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