To The Moon

The trajectory of US stocks last week is roughly the same as that predicted. Under the continuous pressure of star stocks, the stock index also fell synchronously. Although from a technical point of view, NVIDIA's head and shoulder break may mean further downward and partial filling behavior, thus dragging down the market to continue downward revision, some subtle news changes also reveal pessimistic optimism. Continuing the selling pressure brought by chip rumors in the previous two weeks, NVIDIA finally broke down last week. Whether this is the final and effective break is expected to be concluded this week. According to the situation of NASDAQ, the probability of breaking the position is quite high. According to the theoretical goal of the form standard, after the successful break, the decline will point to around 340, thus making up the big gap in May this year. Although the overall trend is not good, and geopolitical topics have not been solved. However, we believe that the market will still operate in a large range, and there will be no crisis of extreme deterioration of risk appetite and collapse or sharp decline. An important reason behind this comes from the recent easing of China-US relations. The interaction between China and the United States are more and more frequently. This is clearly a positive sign compared to the first half of the year, when there was almost no link. In other words, at least in the short and medium term, there will be a short honeymoon period between G2. This can well limit the decline space of risky assets. Of course, it must be admitted that the current communication is only superficial, nothing real appears, and it seems that there are differences within the United States. But on the bright side, it is enough to at least rule out the risk of increased friction between the two economies this year or early next year. After this logical line is clear, the overall trading direction can also be roughly determined: under the short-term technical leadership, the US stock index still has a certain decline, but it is definitely not a trend to enter the big bear market; When the price correction is in place and the market sentiment is released, shock and rebound can bring good cost-effective opportunities at the right time and price. A similar situation also appeared in the crude oil market, and the momentum of oil price rebound obviously lagged behind that of gold. The stimulus from the situation in the Middle East has been overdrawn by oil prices for a short time, and prices have fallen again. However, the main range of low 77 line is still intact at present. On crude oil, the operation of high throwing and low sucking is better than chasing up and killing down. Finally, a brief talk about gold,Gold prices have once again returned to the 2000 integer mark, and the bullish atmosphere is very positive. The only thing that needs attention is that with the closing of the monthly line in October, the monthly line combination of yang and yin will appear again. Historically, within 1-2 months after this form, the risk of reverse correction of gold is not small. Therefore, although optimistic about the gold trend, friends who didn't get on the bus before should not chase up easily. $NQ100 Index Main Connection 2312 (NQmain) $$SP500 Index Main Connection 2312 (ESmain) $$Dow Jones Main Connection 2312 (YMmain) $$Gold Main Connection 2312 (GCmain) $$WTI Crude Oil Main Connection 2312 (CLmain) $