To The Moon

The post-Fed party continued Thu, 02 Nov 2023 with the S&P 500 recording its best day since April 2023. All in all, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow industrials all rose at least +1.7%. By the time the clock chimed at 4pm (US time): $DJIA(.DJI)$ : +1.70% (+564.50 TO 33,839.08). Its highest daily gain since June. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +1.89% (+79.92 TO 4,317.78). All 11 sectors ended in positive territory. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +1.78% (+232.72 to 13,294.19). Its best session since July. Two official reports released helped to cement the fact that US labour market is “cooling” down gracefully: Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover surveys (JOLTs) for September 2023. US weekly jobless claims for week ending 28 Oct 2023. After the private sector ADP non-farm payroll report was out (click here! to read), the next “job” report that analysts would defer to, would be the JOLTs. (see below). The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported that there were 9.553 Million job openings in September 2023. It is a marginal increase of 56,000 jobs from last month downwards-adjusted data of 9.497 Million jobs. Objectively, it could be interpreted as: Employers are still looking to hire workers. The number of jobs openings has been tapering overtime. , which is an increase from the previous month’s figure of 10.69 million. This is a positive sign for the US labor market as it indicates that employers are looking to hire more workers. However, the October data fell short of market expectations of 180,000 job additions. Employment growth was notably more sober than the previous month’s surprise addition of 336,000 positions 2. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8% 2. The JOLTS data provides further evidence that US labor market conditions remain tight . The US economy had a strong third quarter with above-trend growth rate of 1.2% (q/q), largely driven by a strong consumer. However, the survey data remained fragile with the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI dipping anew in October, retreating further into ‘contraction’ territory. Overall, while the JOLTS data for October 2023 shows a positive trend in job openings, it fell short of market expectations and last month’s surprise addition of jobs. The number of new claims filed for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week as the labor market continued to show signs of a significant slowdown. On Thu, 02 Nov 2023, the weekly jobless claims report showed unemployment rolls rising to a six-month high at 217,000 claims. This was 5,000 claims higher than the week before and 7,000 claims higher than analysts’ forecast. In summary, although the labor market is gradually cooling, conditions remain tight, highlighting the economy's enduring strength. As of Wed, 01 Nov 2023, US govt. reported that there were 1.5 job openings for every unemployed person in September 2023. The Fed should be “glad” to learn of this news piece, further validating their decision to freeze interest this November 2023. The final piece of jigsaw on overall US labour market landscape will be released on Fri, 03 Nov 2023. The US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) by the US Dept of Labour, will provide an overall view of the number of workers in the US, excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications. In my yesterday’s post, I have analyzed (in details) why $Apple(AAPL)$ will fall upon Q4 results announced. Click here! to read, help to “ re-post” ok. Tks. Well? Apple shares slipped -3.36% in extended trading after it reported its 4th consecutive quarter of declining revenue, with declining hardware sales offsetting growth in high-margin services. Updated summary of Apple’s past earnings: Comparing Q4 2023 earnings YoY: The iPhone was the only hardware category in which sales increased from the same quarter, YoY. Mac sales YoY slumped nearly -34% & iPad revenue declined -10%. Sales in China, Apple’s 3rd-largest market, slipped about -2.5% as economic uncertainty in China, weighed on spending. Not to mention that Huawei has taken a “big” slice of the mobile phone share as well with the release of 5G-enabled Mate 60 and Mate 60 Pro. Comparing earnings actual against Wall Street expectations: Results painted a slightly different picture though. EPS: $1.46 per share vs. expected $1.39 per share - exceeded expectations. Revenue: $89.5 billion vs. expected $89.28 billion - exceeded expectations. iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion vs. expected $43.81 billion - matched expectations. Mac revenue: $7.61 billion vs. expected $8.63 billion - fell short of expectations. iPad revenue: $6.44 billion vs. expected $6.07 billion - exceeded expectations. Wearables revenue: $9.32 billion vs. expected $9.43 billion - fell short of expectations. Services revenue: $22.31 billion vs expected $21.35 billion - exceeded expectations. Gross margin: 45.2% vs. expected 44.5% - exceeded expectations. Apple’s Q4 2023 earnings — [a] exceeded expectations on 5 counts, [b] matched expectation on 1 count and [3] fell short of expectations on 2 counts. Logically, US market should rally on its “credible but, not out of this world” results. However, it faltered on extended trading, due to “Oct to Dec” forecasted outlook. (see below) During post earnings conference, Apple Inc also provided sales forecast for the holiday quarter. (see above) It will be one that “misses Wall Street expectations”, hurt by continual weak demand for [a] iPads and [b] wearables. In a bid to ease Wall Street worries & anxieties, CEO Tim Cook assured that new iPhone 15 models are doing well in China. The market is skeptical. Despite Apple shares having risen +37% YTD, it still fell -3.4% after-hours, following the press conference’s forecasts. How I See It: One redeeming factor in Apple’s results is, the company still have $162.1 Billion in cash on hand. This is a generous “ safety net” for any credible company / stock to own. Looking at US pre-market indicators for Fri, 03 Nov 2023 - its all in the Red zone at the moment. If Apple continues to consolidate today, a tiny move in its stock price will have an outsized impact on the S&P 500 index. This is because of Apple’s massive market capitalization of $2.77 Trillion, S&P 500’s biggest constituent. Just like $Alphabet(GOOG)$, despite handing in a “stellar” earnings report card, punters chose to focus on Google Cloud’s falling short of market expectations. As a result, Google share tumbled > -9% in intraday trading on Wed, 25 Oct 2023. Looking at Apple’s Inc pre-market indicators, it is currently “down” by -3.07%. It will not be a surprise if Apple pulls back to close off this Friday. The question is “what quantum”? Do you think Apple Inc will fall today? Do you think Apple will drag both S&P 500 and Nasdaq “down” along with its fallin’ ? Please give a “LIKe”, “Share” and “Re-post” ok. Thanks. Rating is very important (to me). Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post/s ok. Thanks. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents @cubinvestor @zindaz @susye80 @Kopisi @Kennytth @BHL5689