To The Moon

Investors continue to be optimistic about the end of the Fed's interest rate hikes, but the resumption of the rise in U.S. Treasury rates has made it difficult for stocks to gain much momentum.

Several Fed officials will give their views on the economy this week, including Chairman Jerome Powell, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook did not comment on monetary policy on Monday, but noted that the recent rise in long-dated U.S. interest rates did not appear to be driven by investor expectations of further rate hikes.

Earnings season is almost over, with 80 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported their latest results, but there are still some important companies due to report this week, including Disney, Wynn Resorts and Occidental Petroleum.

International oil prices rose after top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed over the weekend that they would voluntarily cut further production until the end of the year and would review follow-up cuts in December.

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TLT rally faces test

Following the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing program, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, TLT rebounded strongly late last week after a month-long test of bottom support. However, the rally is hovering around $89, which is the intersection of downside resistance and the 50-day moving average, with a high probability of returning to the low if it cannot continue to break.

Last week's breakout will reinforce the view that bond yields have peaked. The points to watch on the upside are around $92.30, $97.50, $103.80 and $109. The support area to watch on the downside is $82.70 to $81.

Consider a vertical spread strategy for a potential TLT stock price correction:

• buy $TLT 20231215 80.0 PUT$

• sell $TLT 20231215 78.0 PUT$

FANNG option active

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ saw a small number of call option active: $META 20231208 350.0 CALL$

Option buyer open position (Single leg)

Buy TOP T/O:

$SAVE 20260116 5.0 PUT$ $DASH 20250117 100.0 CALL$

Buy TOP Vol:

$TRIP 20240119 19.0 CALL$ $MTCH 20231222 25.0 PUT$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant buy open position for options contracts in the market. The purchase of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying has upward momentum, and the purchase of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying has downward momentum. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Option seller open position (Single leg)

Sell TOP T/O:

$JCI 20250117 57.5 CALL$ $BABA 20240920 80.0 PUT$

Sell TOP Vol:

$JCI 20250117 57.5 CALL$ $TRIP 20240119 19.0 CALL$

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screen is a significant sell open position for an option contract in the market. A sell of a call option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has peaked, and a sell of a put option means that the trader believes that the underlying trend has bottomed. These contract openings typically indicate significant activity in the underlying stock, including whether the trader is willing to accumulate a long or short option position.

Options portfolio open position

Note: This image data is from Tiger PC. This screening is a significant portfolio of options contracts in the market. Portfolio opening includes a variety of underlying trends, requiring traders to further master the basic knowledge of options for analysis and judgment.