I have been trading in $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ for a while, generally on the bearish side, as the SEC overhang casts a looming cloud of uncertainty over the company. I traded in it when it was stuck within the $70-80 range and made a decent amount trading that choppy range, creating strangles through sold puts and calls at the extremes of the range. I also traded via short positions from the top of the range, given my bias towards the downside for COIN.
I was lucky that I ceased trading bearishly on COINand pivoted to other stocks, as I saw BTC increasing past the 30K range. Looking at COIN now, nearing the mid $90s when I was generally trading at the $70-78 range, i shudder at the thought of holding short positions from the previous levels.
Thinking of an approach towards COIN at this price point after such a run up, I am not keen on going long as the SEC overhang remains despite the BTC run up inspiring many to get back to trading cryptos. I am remain unconvinced that the pending BTC ETF has positive knock on effects to COIN as it merely means that investors into the growth of BTC would have an alternative to direct exposure to BTC.
COIN maybe up now, riding along on the long series of green days that the markets has seen. However, I feel the COIN will be experiencing resistance towards the 100s. If the markets turn downwards again or BTC starts to tank, COIN has weaker legs to stand on and may fall faster that more companies which inspires greater confidence.
My primary strategy here will be to stay away until an inversion of the current positive momentum happens and, short the stock towards the $80s. Meanwhile, I will explore selling puts at strike prices above 100.
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If and when BTC goes to $100k, COIN will be $1000 and MSTR $2500. I like it.
The reason is that BTC has gone up while COIN has not. So there is a pent up price appreciation, like a coiled spring which is uncoiling.
By end of next week, COIN will be $150-155
COIN is headed to at least 137 in near term, like two weeks. So, buy Monday morning and thank me later.
No resistance ’til $150