To The Moon

The great appreciation of RMB last week shows that China-US relations have entered a thawing period, which has curbed the outflow of foreign capital and even enhanced the enthusiasm of foreign capital to enter China in the future.

Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is an important trend, which may be beneficial to the economies and stock markets of China and the United States continuously.

First, if the economy continues to be favorable, the oil price is not pessimistic

When the world's two major economies work together again, the expectation of economic recession will further decline. At this time, it is a potential positive for industrial products in the medium and long term.

Therefore, oil prices should not be too pessimistic, and should not be changed by some recent declines. Of course, from the rhythm of trading, it is not suitable for heavy trading at present, and wait for Saudi Arabia's attitude of reducing production next year to decide the size of the position.

In the big cycle, oil prices are expected to have important investment points next year, which fundamentals are related to, which is still uncertain. However, if investment points appear, there will be an amazing increase in a short time. Therefore, although oil prices fluctuate frequently recently, future trends will also bring benefits to those who are prepared, so everyone needs to pay attention to them.

Second, look at oil prices from the fundamentals

The current oil price, except that the United States wants it to fall below $70 (it intends to replenish its strategic oil reserves below this price), is not strongly thought by other countries, while oil-producing countries expect the oil price to remain above $80 to maintain military (Russia) and economic transformation (Saudi Arabia) expenses,

so the oil price has no one-sided force to get it out of the trend at present. At the same time, except for the increase in crude oil production in the United States, it is difficult for other oil-producing countries in the world to find news of the increase in crude oil production.

Unless the world economy suddenly stalls, it is difficult for supply and demand to be out of balance in a short time. Moreover, the geopolitical crisis between Palestine and Israel is still not over. Once it expands, it is very scary for oil prices to go crazy.

Third, look at oil prices from technical analysis

At present, the first major correction of oil price since bottoming out in June has not changed the long-term upward trend of oil price technically, and the 5-year moving average (60-month moving average) has not yet fallen below, which is an important long-term trend line of oil price since 2020.

If it has not fallen below, it means that the long-term multi-tone still exists. At the same time, this callback may be a reconfirmation of the low point in June. Once the confirmation is successful, the bullish probability of the subsequent market will be higher. You may wish to arrange long-term positions according to the moving average.

As long as it doesn't fall below effectively, when it comes to time, it will be bullish. As for the short-term trend, it is definitely not strong at present. Even if it rebounds on Friday, it is still in a state of bottom shock. For long-term positions, it is ok to find a low point and bargain-hunting, but it is not recommended to pay too much attention to short-term trading. It usually does not perform too much near the end of the year, so don't expect too much.

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