To The Moon

Palestine and Israel exchanged hostages and held a short ceasefire for 4 days. It is not known whether the ceasefire will continue after that. If the geopolitical crisis escalates again, the risk aversion in the market will be boosted again.

If the risk aversion escalates again, it may be an opportunity for gold to effectively break through 2000 points.

Looking at gold from a technical point of view

Whether the gold price can effectively break through 2000 will be an important signal of whether the gold price will go bullish again.

At present, the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and the interest rate is no longer bad news to suppress gold, which means that there is no additional bad news, and when the bullish news appears, the performance of gold price will be more obvious.

At present, the gold price has once again reached an important barrier near 2000 points, and the head-shoulder bottom (or head-shoulder top) shape that often appears in the external commodity prices in recent years just appears near this barrier. Once the shape is established, the measurement point of the gold price will reach around 2150 points, so we must pay attention to it.

So will there be a bullish trend for other precious metal varieties?

If the price of gold goes up, other varieties such as silver and platinum will be relatively strong.

However, because silver and platinum are still mostly industrial, and their price increase is more affected by macro-economy, if the price increase of precious metals is caused by the escalation of conflict sentiment, the increase of silver and platinum will lag behind that of gold.

Moreover, from the data of gold-silver ratio, the price ratio of gold and silver (gold price/silver price) has been in the range of 80-88 in the past year, while the current price ratio of gold and silver is close to the bottom of the range of 80.

If the law continues, the subsequent gold price will still be stronger than silver, which makes the gold price more worthy of expectation. Therefore, from the perspective of strength switching, silver can be paid attention to later.

Crude oil has entered a news sensitive period, and OPEC + production reduction is doubtful

Near the end of the year, oil prices are always special news. After all, some large enterprises need to take the annual price as an important basis for purchasing crude oil in the coming year.

OPEC + 's production reduction continues to this day, and some internal countries begin to have differences. This situation is normal. The production reduction alliance is not monolithic.

After a long production reduction, some small economic countries will naturally be unable to stand it and put forward different voices. However, the output of Saudi Arabia and Russia still has the final say in OPEC +, so even if the crude oil production reduction is relaxed, the degree of relaxation will not be too great, and the probability of maintaining the status quo is greater.

Therefore, the OPEC ministers' meeting on Thursday is expected to be a narrowly missed rhythm. Short-term traders can continue to do intraday trading of crude oil (not even across days, and the news is the same every day), while long-term investors pay attention to the support of the 5-year moving average (60-month moving average) and lay out long-term positions in oil prices.

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