To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ’s first Cybertruck has appeared and been put on display at the SoCal showroom at UTC Mall in San Diego, California.

Cybertruck has arrived at Tesla's California store, and new car delivery events will be held at the Texas Gigafactory

One X-platform netizen also saw the real truck in Boston.

According to the news, the new truck is about 5.67 meters long, 2.03 meters wide, about 1.79 meters high, with a wheelbase of about 3.63 meters. The dual-motor version weighs about 3028 kilograms, and the three-motor version weighs about 3128 kilograms.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on a podcast on October 31 that Tesla’s goal is to produce 200,000 electric pickup Cybertrucks per year.

Does this Cybertruck entice you?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ edged up 0.4% Tuesday during premarket action.

Since the beginning of 2023, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock has surged around 90%, broadly outperforming the broader $S&P 500(.SPX)$

Cybertruck prospects

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has the luxury of a reported 2 million reservations for the Cybertruck, with a five-year waiting list. Nonetheless, the vehicle will test whether the company can continue combining volume with premium pricing.

There will now be two models, since the lowest-spec single-motor variant seems no more. The premium tri-motor Cybertruck will likely be priced at US$80,000. Some innovations in the two models, such as stainless-steel body panels, appear to be more marketing hype than engineering logic.

The styling is polarising, and may not appeal to a traditionally conservative segment. The performance claims are impressive, but possibly unnecessary - the ability to tow 6.4 tonnes will rarely be useful.

Cybertruck‘s challenge

It is worth noting that $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ broke the rules and used super-hard stainless steel to build the body of its Cybertruck electric pickup truck. This material does not require painting, is not prone to dents, and can also increase the uniqueness of the vehicle's appearance.

As a result, the choice of ultra-hard stainless steel has made an already difficult road to market for the new model even more rocky for the world's most valuable automaker.

Yet the Cybertruck has been beset with delays over things like the weight, making it difficult to achieve an adequate battery range, and the surging cost of bulletproof glass – it will now only be available as an add-on.

Industry insiders says: This material is very hard and difficult to flatten. The metal is produced in a roll, like a giant roll of toilet paper, and even after unrolling, tends to spring back to its original curved shape. The difficulties add to the production headaches Tesla faces as it launches its first new passenger model in more than three years.

Tesla’s Market Share

In 2023, Tesla expects to sell 1.8 million vehicles overall, roughly double 2021 sales. But things can change very quickly in this industry, and Tesla faces different challenges in its three main markets of China, Europe and the US. The big question is whether the Cybertruck can resolve them.

Tesla unit sales 2016-23

特斯拉各年销量

By early 2023 Tesla had captured about 20% of the EV market, substantially outperforming both volume and premium rivals and increasing share by around 2 percentage points year on year.

The Cybertruck probably won’t unlock more growth in Europe, however. US pickups are a marginal product there, seen as unsuited to many European cities. Indeed, Paris is considering higher parking charges for EVs weighing over 2 tonnes, which would include the reputedly 3.3-ton Cybertruck.

Tesla vehicle sales by region (2022)

Tesla vehicle sales by region pie chart

It is in the US that this vehicle really matters. Again, Tesla cut prices significantly there in early 2023. The company’s ability to put pressure on rivals this way reflects its production experience and famous ownership of its supply chain. Tesla’s unit sales in the US are up 26% year on year, but like in China it is losing share to competitors: down to 57% from 67% a year ago.

The US pick-up segment is important to Tesla’s efforts to retain its premium brand positioning by expanding the product portfolio. but pick-ups are also vital source for the US “big three” manufacturers’ profitability. Non-EVs are dominated by Ford (F-series), GM (Chevrolet Silverado) and Stellantis (Dodge Ram).

Technical Analysis @traderstewie：

Three HIGHER LOWS printed and confirmed leading to the downtrend line. An upside breakout seems imminent at this point. As early as this week, perhaps. First Targets $260 to $270

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