To The Moon

Distribution galore

The markets have been putting up rather well. It looks good on the surface. But that is the thing. That's how distribution goes. Things look good so everyone wants to buy! Drum up the holiday sentiments and soft landing story again and yeah everybody is singing songs again when the same people are calling for a crash just a few weeks back at the local bottom. 

But here are the facts. There has never been a time in history when inflation gets under control without a recession. Don't take my word for it. Research it yourself. Every single time raging inflation gets out of the bottle, it has to be subdued by Mr Recession. Nobody likes Mr Recession but somehow he is the unsung hero. Otherwise normal folks won't be able to buy a lot of things and when it comes to necessities that is a no no.

Is it different this time round? Yes that is possible of course. But it will be really something special for the history books if this FOMC can pull it off. Threading a needle that none has succeeded before. And don't forget this is the same FOMC who calls this a 'transient inflation'! So please forgive me if I have my doubts.

So I am still pretty cautious to be on the safe side. Technically, we are very close to negating the bearish setup on the broad market index. 4606 must hold. We were whiskers from breaking it on Friday BUT it has not been broken. So technically, the bearish setup still is in play.

Looking at bearish patterns in many sectors and names, I am pretty much cautious especially when the merry party seems to be singing and the FOMO party is in full force. 

As mentioned earlier, I am cautious and staying so. Its safety first for me. Even if the market explodes upwards from here, its ok for me. I rather be protected on the downside and I am not going to be a bag holder. 

Disclaimer: Please kindly do your own due diligence as this is a sharing article and in no means financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions and thoughts.

Thanks for reading my commentary. Hope it helps!

Stay safe! 😊

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