Doji at trend line - up or down? The markets $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ were all undecided on Wednesday. The downtrend line beckons and facing such an important resistance, that is no surprise. The bulls and bears are now lined up and poised delicately. The bears hold the highground and the bulls need to step up to take the objective? Are they up for it? Taking the trend line is one thing. But holding it, staying above it and then gaining ground tobuild momentum is another thing. To have a good shot at a new bull and break the bear market, the latter is necessary. I believe the bulls have a decent chance. But they need to hold the 4000 levels technically for a December rally. Break below and a retreat to the 3800 levels into late December is likely before a powerful rally into the new year. I am
Was October the market bottom? That is the question on most investors' if not all investors' mind. We are a year into this bear market and avid investors will know that bear markets last roughly a year. So if statistics bear correct and we are not in an outlier, we are about at the end of this bear market. So October sounds about right. However, it is one thing to guess and another thing to plan. My strategy is always to figure out all possibleroadmaps and let price actions guide. Charts always sniff out economic rumblings and lead macroeconomics and data. That is why it is my go to for managing risks and allocations. Price action is encouraging after Powell's speech. However it has not confirmed anything as one up day does not mean much especially whentrend lines are still intact. The SMH index and semis were looking at an incomplete wave 1 pattern and now seems to be completing it with a wave 5 push on lower volume and momentum which is textbook wave 5. Other sec
Good potential but not really inspiring confidence The China story is an interesting one. With such a huge economy and rich heritage behind it, the potential is enormous. So is the loyalty ofthe citizens. But in a globally intertwined economy much like the one we have, no country can afford to go all out on its own. And that is the thing with China. The politics of the country and culture etc can be at loggerheads with the US and we all know very well how the US is seen as the defacto leader of the free world. And that status does not go well with a country that sees itself as an equal or maybe even better. The political grindings that have been going on is plain clear for all to see and is very much like two heavyweights slugging it out with each other. Both are wary of each other and bothknow that each other is finding ways to get ahead of the other and hold the 'superpower' mantle. The US after having battled it out with the fallen superpower 'USSR' in the past decadewill only
Battle of the trend line! The markets $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ made a huge statement yesterday to push the bears right into the 200moving averages and downtrend line. The FOMC president helped a lot by giving the market what they wanted to hear. The more pertinent question is 'Is this it? Is this the moment the bulls have been waiting for?' The bulls arguably have the upper hand and momentum. But the bears are going to hold on tight and give thebulls a hard fight. They are not going to let gotheir position so easily. It is indeed an intriguing match up and not very easy to guess the outcome! Before we get ahead of ourselves, we have to remember that the downtrend line is still muchintact and in the bears' posession. T
Group C winner - Alphabet I choose $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ as the winner of Group C although I think Netflix is also doing ok with its ad tech venture. Google is the de facto search engine of the world outside of China. And it will remain so forquite a while. So its reach will remain substantial in the near future. You tube is the number 1video sharing platform and probably will stay there for some time and where massive traffic is, advertisers will flock. Its cloud services are essential for the future and for growth and that will probably keep it relevant in the near future. I am not as bullish as I am on them as I do some other names that I have mentioned but for the sake of participation, I am just commenting. Thanks for reading! 😊
Group B - Berkshire Hathaway I choose $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ as thewinner of Group B. I know it is by popular voteso does not matter the reason. But here it is. Berkshire as everyone knows is the heart and soul of Buffet. It is the core of his holdings and beliefs and a testament to the value each company in the portfolio holds. So as the value darlings, I pick them to be the winner of Group B although the others in the group are no pushovers too. $Visa(V)$ is the runner up I pick toGroup B. Thanks for reading!
Stock market's apple of the eye $Apple(AAPL)$ is very much a mainstay of value portfolios. I mean it occupies a big chunk of $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ and Buffet is Mr Value personified so that is rather an understatement in itself. With a P/E of around 23, it is not too expensive although any drag on earnings will put pressure on that. And many believe that inflation will not affect Apple much due to its sticky consumers as well as mind share effect. However, the reliance of Apple on China in its supply chain has been made rather apparent especially lately and I am quite sure they recognised that and are trying to diversify into otherregions such as Vietnam. And with China stubbornly sticking to its Covid zero policies, it is creating quite a bit of instability around earnings. This is still short term though and they willprobably figure a way out. The more sticky
Brave bulls The markets $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ were all rather indecisivewith only the Nasdaq pushing down more thanthe rest. It feels like the market wants to makeanother push up past the 4030 for a nice cup and handle. However, I still feel like this may be a bull trap considering the levels we are at and the technical pattern we have. So in my opinion, it seems more likely that the markets might push down more from here to approach the 3800 levels for a wave 2 retreat. Depending on how sharp that pull back is, we may still get a year end rally or at least one that start at the turn of the new year. Again price action at the important levels will be key. A retreat here is in fact necessary and signs of ahealthy and functioning market. Powell speaks again today. And as usual, many will be p
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ to win group 1! I am rooting for Nvidia to win group one with Apple a close second! I did not realise I can vote up to two stocks here. And I have already submitted my vote. Haha. So Nvidia to win thegroup and $Apple(AAPL)$ to get second place! Nvidia is a company that will greatly benefit from the shift into artificial intelligence and its earnings seem to reflect this with a shift in earnings from gaming towards data centers etc. Apple is still a good company, very good one in fact but it is already so huge it will take a massive effort to grow bigger for this behemoth. The only way forward for this giant is to connquer more of the software and streaming market or shift towards electric vehicles or even into artificial intelligence. As it is, Apple is already lagging in AI behind Tesla and Nvidia. So lots of catching up to do. As such Nvidia is my choic
Taking a breather into the 3800 levels The markets $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ retreated on Monday post holidays. It was a much expected move and Iexpect them to retreat further into next week off a wave 2 move. The levels I am watching on the broad market index are the 3800 levels which will make for a nice rebound off the lower trend line as well as the Fib levels for a wave 2 retreat. Following that retreat, I will expect a nice wave 3 rally that would carry us into the 4300 levels. All hypothetical and based on chart analysis of course. A road map is important to gauge risk levels and manage positions but price action will determine decision making. On the macro front, not really much market moving news. Some encouraging developments from China on the Covid front with respects to th