Alphabet (GOOGL) Current Skew Indicator Suggest Bullish Signal
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ has risen by after they released the Unveils Gemini AI Model. Market have been positive with Alphabet releasing this new AI model.
GOOGL has a more than 5% gain on 07 Dec (Thursday) trading. In this article I would like to assess GOOGL potential for more upside moving forward.
Alphabet (GOOGL) Seasonal Volatility by Day of Year
Historically, implied volatility for GOOGL tended to rise the most in April with a median IV Of 28.9, while May tended to be when implied volatility declined To its lowest levels With median IV Of 19.9.
Historically, the median IV for the current month of December was 21.9 compared to the current IV of 22.0. The IV level in January following December tended to be higher, with a median IV of 28.2
Alphabet (GOOGL) IV Percentile Rank
GOOGL implied volatility (IV) is 22.0, which is in the 10% percentile rank. This means that 10% of the time the IV was lower in the last year than the current level. The current IV (22.0) is 6.5% above its 20 day moving average (20.7) indicating implied volatility is trending higher.
Alphabet (GOOGL) IV vs 20-Day HV
The current IV (22.0) in GOOGL is 1.0% above its 20 day HV (21.8) suggesting that options markets are predicting future volatility to trade above the most recent 20 day realized volatility.
Alphabet (GOOGL) Volatility Skew
The implied volatility skew shows the market's bias for pricing in volatility risk to the option premium of downside puts and upside calls.
The implied volatility for downside puts is decreasing relative to upside calls, then that suggests the market is pricing in a larger positivity to a upside move.
The Current Skew Indicator is showing a Bullish signal.
Summary Volume and Price by Trading Session for Alphabet (GOOGL)
The VWAP price for the premarket session was $135.71, which was a $4.28 increase over the prior closing price. Premarket volume was 336% above the 30-day average, with 1,132,954 total shares.
The opening auction price ticked up from the premarket to $136.54, on a volume of 326,450 shares. The stock showed some strength after the open, with the VWAP price up $2.02 to $138.56. The trading volume was higher than normal, with a total share count 79% above the 30-day average.
The closing auction price ended up ticking down to $138.45, with a volume of 2,813,861 shares. The price has been fairly consistent into after hours trading, with a VWAP of $138.45. Volume has already crossed the 30-day average, reaching a total of 602,819 shares.
Summary
Based on the data I have gathered, I would expect GOOGL to continue to have an upside move, following the release of Gemini.
Over the next few weeks, we should be seeing more news from users wo are testing out Gemini, and if the performance and accuracy beats GPT by OpenAI.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ might also be coming up with some upgrades on its copilot (which is powered by ChatGPT), but its share price is not performing.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think GOOGL will provide further upside with its new Gemini AI model.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
It's fascinating to see the competition between these tech giants and their AI advancements. What are your thoughts on which company, GOOGL or MSFT, has a better long-term strategy in place for AI domination?
MSFT's copilot upgrade is definitely worth keeping an eye on, especially considering their current share price struggles. Do you think they'll be able to bounce back with this new update? Or is the competition too fierce?
I'm with you on watching out for more user feedback on Gemini. If it does deliver better results than GPT, it could definitely shake up the AI game.