Tesla won't hit $300 due to EU labour strike & US incentive removal.
The headwinds Tesla is encountering lately is gathering pace.
I am referring to the labour strike in Europe.
Sweden to be precise.
“Surprised” by how little coverage there is in US media.
Perhaps the media feels that:
It is a small matter, unworthy of highlight and it will blow over soon. OR
Everybody wants a christmas rally at Tesla, drive it up, plunder it profits before allowing reality to set it.
I think there is a bit of truth in both of above reasonings.
What is happening to Tesla in Europe?
The Swedish labour groups have been taking industrial action against Tesla in a bid to get it to sign collective bargaining agreements with mechanics. (see above).
The IF Metall union and Tesla Sweden have meet twice but failed to arrive at a compromised solution.
Instead of trying to resolve the issue, mr musk took to Twitter and commented “insane”.
Helming the labour’s side is Union leader Ms Marie Nilsson, a tough but fair negotiator. She welds enough influence not just in Sweden but the Scandinavian community as a whole.
The strike that began on 27 Oct 2023, when 130 members of the powerful metalworkers’ union (IF Metall) walked out of the 7 workshops across the country where Tesla EVs are serviced.
Soon, other trade unions joined in solidarity, including:
Dockworkers at Sweden’s four largest ports — curtailing delivery of Tesla vehicles.
On 20 Nov 2023, Swedish Union for Service and Communications Employees, said it will halt shipments to Tesla.
On 01 Dec 2023, the Painters’ Union said 53 painting companies would not do any work on Tesla vehicles in sympathy with IF Metall.
The "insane" Swedish strike has generated a ripple effect in the Scandinavian region.
On 05 Dec 2023, the Tesla strike in Sweden has gone viral and spread to Denmark.
Danish workers will refuse to unload or transport cars made by Tesla for customers in Sweden.
Denmark's 3F Chairman, Jan Villadsen concurred that the trade union movement is global in the fight to protect workers.
To that end, the Danish strike will only affect Tesla EVs meant for the Swedish market.
Two Danish pension funds Pædagogernes Pension (PBU) & PensionDanmark have divested their Tesla shares to the tune of €96.3 Million.
This comes as part of a rapidly-spreading protest against Tesla’s hard line in Sweden on labour-market cooperation.
On Wed, 06 Dec 2023, Norway's biggest private sector union - United Federation of Trade Unions - said it would begin blocking the transit of Tesla cars into Sweden, from 20 Dec 2023 onwards, if Tesla does not sign a Swedish collective wage agreement by the deadline.
The Swedish strike that began on 27 Oct 2023 is 5 weeks in the run.
With mr musk disdain and refusal to negotiate with the Labour Union, the light at the end of the tunnel still cannot be detected.
Will the strike further deteriorate? It is anybody's guess because it is still an ongoing, a strike-in-progress.
Closer to home, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union is launching an unprecedented campaign to organize 13 non-union automakers in the US, including Tesla.
This comes after UAW’s victorious bargaining record contracts with the Detroit automakers:
Any disruptions to Tesla’s supply chain will be a boon to its competitors:
In the US - Ford, General Motors, Stellantis, Rivian.
In China - BYD, NIO, Li Auto and Xpeng.
As there are 13 non-union automakers to work through, time might provide a temporary reprieve for Tesla.
Sooner or later, Tesla has to face the music too. If not in Q4 2023, it will definitely be in first half of 2024
The already-troubled Tesla faces further challenges with a new protectionist ruling from the US Department of Energy (DOE), adding to the pressure from ongoing labor strikes. (see above)
What is the new rule?
On 05 Dec 2023, DOE proposed new rules that stated that EVs with battery components coming from a company or group designated as a foreign entity of concern (FEOC) would be ineligible for the full tax credit.
It is confirmed that Tesla’s Model 3 will be impacted. The question is to what extent?
This will definitely hit home for Tesla because the Model 3 is the next best seller after Model Y.
As of Q3 2023, Tesla delivery is already falling short of expectations.
Will Q4 2023 be impacted by (a) the strikes (into its 5th week) and (b) the new DOE rule.
Cathie Wood sells Tesla in Q4 2023
Cathie Wood sells Tesla in Q4 2023.
Elon Musk biggest fangirl Cathie Wood, ARK funds investment manager sold Tesla shares (not buy!) in Q3 2023. (see above)
Selling Tesla at $256.88 per share, netted her $196.51 Million in returns.
My viewpoint:
(1) In Europe.
I believe the 3 collective strikes in Sweden, Denmark and Norway — will impact Tesla’s Q4 2023 European earnings contributions.
(2) In America.
Tried but failed to find US sales figures for Tesla most popular (Model Y) and 2nd most popular (Model 3) EVs.
With the new tax credit regulation coming into effect on 01 Jan 2024, Tesla has 3 weeks to deliver Model 3 to all its customers in order to enjoy the Federal Tax credit. Possible?
How will mr musk mitigate the tax incentive “loss” for Model 3 — while facing fierce competition from 100% Made-in-US EVs from Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, that continues to enjoy 100% Fed Tax credit?
(3) In China.
It is confirmed that $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$ has displaced Tesla as the #1 best selling car maker in China.
Other Chinese (eg. Li Auto, Xpeng, Nio) and EU (Volkswagen, Audi) EV makers are slowly but surely nibbling at the Chinese EV pie that was previously monopolized by Tesla. (see above)
Tesla’s sales was getting by because of the steep price cut, implying diminishing margins.
Like any US stock that goes thru the peak and trough cycle, Tesla is no exceptions. Cathie Wood recognizes the pattern in Tesla and has been profiting from it.
It is a “concern” that despite above headwinds, Tesla is rising instead of falling. (see above)
This could only imply the imminent fall will come when punters take profit (maybe at $300 - LOL) and make a beeline for the exit.
Will you be able to outsmart them or be taken for a ride?
Do you think Tesla will hit $300 per share?
Do you think Tesla will report a slower or lacklustre Q4 2023 earnings soon?
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