YG_TAN666
2023-12-15

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@OptionsDelta：
The focus of the FOMC's observation on Thursday will be the dot plot, which compares the gap between two expectations: one is the September dot plot expectations, and the other is the market expectations. The November meeting did not release a dot plot, and the September forecast for 2024 moved up from the June forecast to a median of 5.125 percent. The current futures market forecast is 4.26%. In the case that it is clear that another rate hike is not possible tomorrow, then the dot plot will probably change in two directions: stay unchanged, or the dot matrix will move down and more members will agree to multiple rate cuts. I think the dot matrix has a large probability of moving down but it is unlikely to equal the futures market expectations. With inflation steadily falling but no recession in sight, Powell is sure to remain hawkish but other members may loosen their tone. If that is the case, then December will be a good sell put. If it is not, it will be a market correction. I prefer that the December dot matrix will be lowered, so my trading idea continues to be bullish: TSMC: TSMC has a bullish large order of 40,000 lots at $TSM 20240621 115.0 CALL$ . There is still some upside, buy call is also OK, but I choose to sell the at-the-money PUT option $TSM 20231222 100.0 PUT$ Amazon: Christmas shopping season plus $Macy's (M)$acquisition positive, bullish retail stocks fit sell put $AMZN 20240112 134.0 PUT$ Oracle: Cloud infrastructure expansion is limited by capacity, earnings miss expectations, short-term stock price overfall can sell PUT options $ORCL 20240105 98.0 PUT$
The focus of the FOMC's observation on Thursday will be the dot plot, which compares the gap between two expectations: one is the September dot plot expectations, and the other is the market expectations. The November meeting did not release a dot plot, and the September forecast for 2024 moved up from the June forecast to a median of 5.125 percent. The current futures market forecast is 4.26%. In the case that it is clear that another rate hike is not possible tomorrow, then the dot plot will probably change in two directions: stay unchanged, or the dot matrix will move down and more members will agree to multiple rate cuts. I think the dot matrix has a large probability of moving down but it is unlikely to equal the futures market expectations. With inflation steadily falling but no recession in sight, Powell is sure to remain hawkish but other members may loosen their tone. If that is the case, then December will be a good sell put. If it is not, it will be a market correction. I prefer that the December dot matrix will be lowered, so my trading idea continues to be bullish: TSMC: TSMC has a bullish large order of 40,000 lots at $TSM 20240621 115.0 CALL$ . There is still some upside, buy call is also OK, but I choose to sell the at-the-money PUT option $TSM 20231222 100.0 PUT$ Amazon: Christmas shopping season plus $Macy's (M)$acquisition positive, bullish retail stocks fit sell put $AMZN 20240112 134.0 PUT$ Oracle: Cloud infrastructure expansion is limited by capacity, earnings miss expectations, short-term stock price overfall can sell PUT options $ORCL 20240105 98.0 PUT$

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