To The Moon

Some people may have noticed that the index spikes hard for two days every month, usually at the start of the month. Then the trend slides down like a paper airplane losing speed. Then a new month starts, and it spikes again. This makes the daily chart look like a dog chewed on it, but the monthly chart keeps climbing steadily along the 5-month moving average. This pattern started after July 4th this year. That's also when Trump's baby account policy was announced — a plan to get kids to auto-invest in the S&P 500. From some big bearish orders, you can see the S&P 500 really wanted a proper pullback after July. July was painful for a lot of people, but the S&P 500 held firmly above its 5-month moving average. In other words, sectors can take turns falling, but the S&P 500's

Back from the holiday, everything had changed. Sector rotation has reached semiconductors, which are now bleeding to feed tech giants and bank stocks. The bearish turn was very sudden. From a pure chart-reading view, it means the part that jumped the gun in September gives back its gains, and then the stocks that didn't rise in September should rise. Of course, as some fall and others rise, the overall market keeps chopping higher near its highs. With that idea, this week's two big earnings reports could look very different: financial stocks may bounce after earnings, while TSMC is more likely to keep drifting near lows after its report. I won't pretend anymore: I peeked at the answer key. Before earnings, big sell put orders showed up in financial stocks, like

The title is my attitude toward the Q4 market — more precisely, through Anthropic's IPO. Q4 has three major tailwinds. First, Anthropic has tentatively finalized its IPO date. It's reportedly planning a large-scale IPO before the Thanksgiving holiday (around November 26), and could begin IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9. It plans to target a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. As everyone knows, a blockbuster company going public means the market atmosphere has to be heated up — the market must rise. Second, historical data: since 1930, the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.6% gain in Q4 of midterm election years — twice the average gain of other years. Third, tonight's nonfarm payrolls. Only 29,000 jobs added — it made me laugh. Rate-hike odds immediately dropped.

TLT and Treasury yields typically move inversely, so the surge in yields pushed TLT below 80, hitting historic lows. However, a mysterious options block trade suggests this trend may be nearing a temporary end. During today's session, someone opened 80,000 contracts of the November 30-expiry TLT call at the 83 strike $TLT 20261130 83.0 CALL$ , with a total notional of about $3 million. It's possible the buyer simply thought it was too low and saw a rebound opportunity, so they went all in — because $3 million in notional isn't particularly impressive in today's world of A9-level wealth; it only shows that buyers are tempted at this level. Still, nearly 100,000 contracts in volume is enough to sound an alarm for market mak

$Intel(INTC)$ If you ask me what the most worth-holding stock in October is, yesterday I wouldn't have had a definitive answer — but today I can confidently say it's Intel. On Monday, a large Sell Call block opened, selling the October 16-expiry 130 Call $INTC 20261016 130.0 CALL$ , opening 52,000 contracts. Someone also opened a 160 Sell Call and an October 9-expiry 130 Sell Call, but both were under 10,000 contracts. Ordinary Sell Call block trades get absorbed into the options wall, but a 50,000-contract Sell Call block carries reflexivity. The effect of these massive seller block trades plays out in two phases: In the first phase, the validity of the block trade is confirmed

Monday's chip stock plunge wasn't just due to crude oil prices rising again — Meta's stock price also pulled back, and as seen from last week's correlation, the two are highly linked. But no need to rush, because OpenAI is also about to launch an around-the-clock online assistant this week. It's foreseeable that Anthropic and other major players will follow suit with personal assistants. So the conclusion is: Monday's pullback is very suitable for Sell Puts, for example: $SKHY 20261009 170.0 PUT$  $MU 20261002 900.0 PUT$  $MRVL 20261009 220.0 PUT$ 

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Last week's price target was 700, and this week's target has already become 800. Theoretically, if Muse integrates more functions and participates in more work applications that require privacy authorization, the stock's upside ceiling will rise even further. This round of Muse's marketing has been extremely successful, precisely capturing user pain points, which is why it ranked #2 on the app download charts in its first week. I think it's not impossible for the stock to have an even higher ceiling — closely monitor Muse's feature updates going forward. For a conservative bullish strategy ahead of earnings, Sell Put is fine. For the strike price, consider 700

$Intel(INTC)$ Tonight's short squeeze in CPU concept stocks was spectacular — AMD hit a trillion-dollar market cap intraday, and Pelosi's ITM call position rose 23% $INTC 20270319 50.0 CALL$ . The reasons behind this squeeze are complex: various delayed industry catalysts finally fermented — like the Meta App Store ranking news we'd been talking about all last week, which only exploded today, and then the C-end application surge, which in turn benefited chips; the crude oil plunge cooled inflation expectations; Of course, the most important factor was the positioning of the chips. The expectation of a late-September pullback was so deeply ingrained that last week saw a pile of Sell

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Thursday's meeting didn't just deliver one rate hike — it also signaled another hike later this year, which is about as hawkish as it gets. Maxing out expectations isn't necessarily bad — it means the market's next focus won't be on data beating expectations, but on what happens if data comes in below expectations. But after the hawkish hike, the market didn't pull back significantly — tech stocks rebounded and led the gains. This is the current "three highs" environment: high growth, high inflation, high rates. According to late-September tradition, the market should pull back. But looking at the directional bets from large block trades, bulls and bears are split roughly 50/50 — you could even say the bullish side

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Based on GEX analysis, SPY is likely to close at 750 this week — rate hike or not, that's the price. Barring any surprises, low-level consolidation should begin next week. Also interesting: GLD saw a buy-side opening of 15,000 contracts on the 430 Call $GLD 20261120 430.0 CALL$ — suggesting gold has a high probability of bottoming out after Friday's meeting. $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ Everyone thinks Trump is about to make a deal, but before any deal, there will surely be one more round of death threats. Generally, Trump chooses to announce during trading hours on a weekday — he won't pick a weekend wh