To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Today's options opening data revealed something interesting. Institutions expect NVIDIA's stock price for the week of December 20 to be lower than the market consensus. Institutions expect it below 141, while open interest data shows market expectations between 140-150:Sell $NVDA 20241220 141.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241220 149.0 CALL$ The overall market expects NVIDIA to likely trade between 140-150 during December 20 week, while institutions expect it below 141, with a small chance of 141-149.When such contradictions arise, which side is more credible? From a sensitivity perspective, overall option

Chinese ADRs are showing significant options activity, with diverging views on recent market movements. $X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund(ASHR)$ On Wednesday, someone opened a position of 100,000 contracts in February 2025 29 calls $ASHR 20250221 29.0 CALL$ , while another bought 25,000 contracts of January 2025 27 puts $ASHR 20250117 27.0 PUT$ .Both options' transaction details show automated order placement, not floor trading.$KWEB$ options mainly saw new open interest in calls, with floor trading showing a bullish spread strategy, direction unclear:Opening

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Friends, small short sellers have surrendered and rolled their positions. Expect a pullback or halt in gains starting today.Institutions are closing 390-420 calls expiring this week and rolling to next week's 440-500 calls:Buy $TSLA 20241220 440.0 CALL$ Sell $TSLA 20241220 500.0 CALL$ Today is ideal for selling calls, but naked calls on Tesla are very risky without holding shares. I'll use a spread strategy, choosing the same strike price as institutions but expiring this week:Sell $TSLA 20241213 440.0 CALL$ , Buy

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ For those holding shares, consider hedging with sell calls in the near term. Based on opening positions, this week's closing price should be between 137-145.On Monday, NVIDIA fell 2% at open due to alleged violations of China's anti-monopoly laws. This has little real impact - it's just an excuse for a decline, like being fired for entering the office left foot first.However, the pullback isn't groundless, so hedging is advisable.Monday's options activity was dominated by sellers for both calls and puts.This week's 138 and 137 puts were mainly sold, and two January 2025 120 puts $NVDA 20250117 120.0 PUT$  and

Last week, I posted three consecutive threads tracking unusual options activity in Chinese ADRs. Below is a summary of key options positions for several notable Chinese stocks. Based on the strike prices, the first target price has been reached at market open. The endpoint of this rally can be referenced through the details of large order closures & roll-overs, which I will continue to track. $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ $YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$ , 179K contracts open interest$YINN 20241220 33.0 CALL$ , 39K contracts open interest

Tesla might replicate NVIDIA's movement pattern from this week next week. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Due to Thursday's failure to break through, expectations for call and put options began to diverge.Call options are targeting above 160 for January, while put options have started partly betting on 110:Why didn't the stock price continue breaking through on Thursday?Because the market's biggest short position holder, the institution doing weekly sell calls, was forced to roll positions:They likely expected a pullback this week, so they sold 141 calls at the borderline, but Wednesday's breakthrough forced them to roll to next week, selling calls at a higher 148. After these "shorts" disappeared, the stock price stalled Thursday and pulled back after Friday

After reviewing the opening position data, I suspect there might not be a pullback in December. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ On Wednesday, institutions made large-scale rolls of their bull spreads. All December 6 call options were closed, with strike prices uniformly adjusted up by about $5. The concentrated opening range for December 13 calls shifted to 147-157.Unless the stock price returns to 140 by Friday, I feel next week's short squeeze could still keep NVIDIA at high levels.On the put side, there are concentrated openings in 141-144 puts, with $NVDA 20241206 141.0 PUT$  showing large-scale put selling. However, as we've mentioned before, opening weight is direction-neutral, and hea

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ As I mentioned yesterday, institutions have closed their positions and exited again, closing 141-150 and rolling to next week below 148, hedging at 157.5Sell $NVDA 20241213 148.0 CALL$ Buy $NVDA 20241213 157.5 CALL$ The worst case is this one - they just rolled yesterday and it went up today, forcing them to cut losses and roll again. They chose a lower strike price than the previous one, opening by selling 145 call and buying 150 call:Sell $NVDA 20241213 145.0 CALL$ Buy

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's trend over the next two weeks might be better than expected, although the original expectations weren't bad either.Monday's options opening position list shows that bullish options top positions significantly outweigh bearish ones, indicating the market tends to bet on the near-term trend using call options.Call options are being heavily accumulated across strike price sequences, which typically triggers stock price increases. However, transaction details show scattered trades with more selling than buying orders, clearly not institutional accumulation.Possibly due to no signs of market correction and NVIDIA's reasonable stock price, the market expects the price won't exceed certain levels. Overall, Monday showed no si

Two groups of massive new open interest options positions are indicative of future trend directions, with attention on Chinese stock rebound opportunities.Western Markets Cool:First, there's a large Microsoft call option sale at the at-the-money strike price of 420, expiring December 13th:Sell $MSFT 20241213 420.0 CALL$ , opening 10,000 contractsChoosing the at-the-money strike price for selling calls indicates a very bearish trend for the next two weeks, and opening over 10,000 contracts shows strong confidence in this outlook.Looking at covered call large orders in other tech stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla, we can see the next two weeks will likely be relatively flat with range-bound trading. Even COIN isn't an exception