To The Moon

Pinduoduo experienced a sharp drop in stock price yesterday. To confirm the extent of its impact, I reviewed the options activity for the KWEB and FXI ETFs. On March 23rd, I noticed that a trader placed a very aggressive order:buy $KWEB 20230421 34.5 CALL$The total transaction amount for the call option is over 1.9 million. It has an expiration date of April 21 and a strike price of 34.5 OTM. There is a high likelihood that there will be a surge in the near future, or the price will rise to 34.5 before April 21.Similarly, there is an option move on FXI, where traders are making a call spread, which is not so aggressive:buy 

Confirming that the banking crisis is likely to have been averted, the capital needs of American banks did not continue to deteriorate last week. It is important to note that the phrase 'gathering momentum, declining rapidly' applies equally to the concept of shorting.From last week's FOMC meeting, it can be seen that the Fed recognizes the impact of tightening credit on raising interest rates. However, some conspiracy theorists have suggested that Powell may have intentionally harmed small banks, only for short sellers to interfere. Within 48 hours, a bank unexpectedly failed due to the spread of social media, causing a run on regional banks and almost triggering a European banking crisis. This proved to be too much for central banks on both sides of the Atlantic, prompting them to hit th

Here are three things today, all related to liquidity:1. The latest Federal Reserve H.4.1 report shows that the Federal Reserve's FIMA facility has been used, to the size of $60 billion. Because the facility requires collateral against government bonds, the market assumed that a central bank was responsible for putting up such a large amount of collateral. Liquidity is now very tight.2. Deutsche Bank fell 10% in the premarket, with bonds and equities selling off at the same time. Separately, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG became the first European bank this year to forgo a call on AT1 bonds.3. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told EU leaders that the ECB was fully prepared to provide liquidity to the eurozone financial system if needed.Shorting of banks and real estate continu

The market action after this FOMC meeting is very confusing and very visual. The dollar fell sharply, the market soared (later down), I looked at the calendar, today is March 23, not February 2 ah, how the market is basically similar?This time, the Fed duly raised interest rates by 25 basis points and the dot plot was slightly raised, so it is no surprise that the PCE of economic expectations was also raised. But the statement deleted any reference to continued rate hikes. The fact that the Fed has raised its inflation forecast without sticking to a rate hike only suggests that runs on regional banks are causing the Fed a little trouble. And the journalists at the press conference have lost sight of inflation, apparently the banking crisis is more important.It has to be said that raising i

In theory, when the Fed released liquidity to rescue small banks, the run on banks should be over and bank shares should rebound.But it's too early to cheer from an options move perspective, and the bears may still be playing with the FOMC.There was a big order yesterday of $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ put options expiring this week with a strike price of 10:​$FRC 20230324 10.0 PUT$ Coincidentally, the $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ also saw a large volume of put expiring this week:​<

One of the big surprises last week was that the Federal Reserve opened up the water again, providing another $300 billion of credit to the banking system. If interest rate cuts are interpreted as missiles, this credit supply can be interpreted as handing banks a revolver with plenty of ammunition. From the Fed's point of view, a problem that can be solved with a gadget doesn't need a big one.Liquidity is indeed provided objectively. The apparent spillover of liquidity sent tech stocks soaring, not knowing whether the market was unnecessarily misunderstood or not doing the right thing.The experience was eerie: it was as if the community had organized fundraising for critically ill patients, only to find that the patients' homes had been equipped with the latest computer 3D printers and VR d

Since the market gives the opportunity, then I also welcome to lie flat. Who doesn't like easy trading to make a lot of money?《Here's a dark horse stock of 2023》 Introduced this year's dark horse $Microsoft(MSFT)$ . institutions in the face of next week's FOMC pressure, also sold the in-the-money put option.Selling at-the-money puts is a risky move at this stage, meaning there is a high probability that the stock will be exercised.But the institutions did it anyway, this shows that Microsoft is worth exercising.Looking at yesterday's options move, the strategy is even more exaggerated:sell ​

There were two events in March that reversed financial markets. Not non-farm and CPI, but the cascading effects of Silicon Valley bank failures and Chatgpt-4.The former affects the liquidity of the capital market, while the latter is a technological revolution that reverses the valuation of the AI industry at a stroke. From a value investing perspective, I think the latter is more far-reaching.Anyway, after these two things happened, I really want to see if those big orders are still holding positions.In the article "Show the cards! Market trends prior to March 24：bearish！", Apple, Google and Amazon all closed their sell calls due on March 24th; The sell call of Tesla's 210 strike price has not been closed, and is now making

Last week Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, vowed to raise rates by 50 basis points. I wonder if the ECB will be as firm on rates tomorrow, Thursday.$SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF(FEZ)$ The credit crunch has spread to Europe. Credit Suisse's big Saudi shareholder refused to come to its rescue, sending shares down 25% in early trading, triggering a panic sell-off in European shares.But there's not much reference to options trading. Because the early put doubled its money at the open and then closed 3/4 of the way. The rest of them are running away with their profits, with a different mindset.Whether Ms Lagarde raises rates or not makes no difference. But if you open short positions today, you might want to be wary of the govern

Yesterday Biden expressed confidence that he would show results in fighting inflation. I thought CPI had to fall to the 5.xx%. As a result, CPI in February was unchanged as expected at 6.0 percent and core was also unchanged at 5.5 percent. Month-on-month, it was slightly higher, at 0.5%.There is a long way to go in the fight against inflation, and a quarter-point rise cannot be missed.$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ Source of titleclosed $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ ​roll