Yes, the next few weeks will be perfect for the sell put.Overall the economy is fine. July CPI came in lower than expected and inflation fell steadily, while nonfarm output beat expectations and employment and unemployment both returned to pre-pandemic levels.But markets are always suspicious. The release of the data will cause a certain pullback impact on the stock price, the next is the expected market, but the overall or continue to rise.So the easiest way to sell is to sell put. Steady weekly collection. I looked below for companies with good fundamentals and conservative strike prices (except Starbucks).You can also sell at-the-money Put if you want, and you can earn more.Ticker symbolAnnualized incomeExpiration datestrike pricePremium$TSLA 20220819 800.0 PUT$12%2022/8/198001.5$GOOG 20220826 118.0 PUT$22%2022/8/261180.9$JPM 20220826 115.0 PUT$10%2022/8/261150.43$SBUX 20220819 86.0 PUT$31%2022/8/19860.38$DIS 20220826 115.0 PUT$16%2022/8/261150.64$ATVI 20220826 80.0 PUT$18%2022/8/26800.49$VMW 20220916 115.0 PUT$14%2022/9/161151.55Conclusions suitable for the sell put can also be drawn from the details.Last week, we observed the option movement and found that many straddles that moved to September did not continue to choose the at-the-money strike price and chose the more in-the-money strike price. Take Tesla's big straddle order:$TSLA 20220916 780.0 CALL$$TSLA 20220916 780.0 PUT$To make money on this order, Tesla needs to increase to more than$940 = $780+$140(call price)+$20(PUT price), which is a fluctuation of more than 4%. With Tesla up 4% in a month, bullish calls are conservative and inconsistent with Tesla's typically fierce volatility.When volatility is higher than the market expects, shorting volatility is the best strategy.The FOMC meets on Wednesday night. I don't think it's a big deal. Powell is expected to come in as easily as he did last time. It's a good opportunity to trade whether the market is up or down.
Why did someone trade an $18 million put option on Apple?
CPI landing market trend steady I feel nothing, plus yesterday on the cold stopped a more. But when I look at the list today, I have a vague feeling that there is something wrong:Why does $Apple(AAPL)$ have 18 million more Puts? $AAPL 20221216 170.0 PUT$The expiration date is December 16th and the strike price is $170, which is an in-the-money PUT at the current apple price of $169. Although the current trend of Apple has reached the top of the stage, but also not so completely bearish?Is it possible to sell put? This possibility is not ruled out, but it would mean a very good second half of the year, $170 is the low for Apple in the second half of the year, or a long period of sideways trading after that.There is no rush to judge the exact outcome. As a rule of thumb, such big orders are usually delayed, and even if Apple turns the tide and starts to decline, it will be a few days later. During this period, you can think slowly, observe and deal with your position, and there is plenty of time.In another pre-market flash point, the announcement of five major state-owned enterprises delisting from the United States, combined with the news of Alibaba's dual listing in Hong Kong, stirred speculation.However, I think the bulk return of Chinese stocks is highly likely to be positive for Hong Kong stocks, otherwise there would be no one for $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$ 4 million call in advance: $FXI 20221118 30.0 CALL$That's about it. Have a great weekend, everybody!
I expected CPI to fall, but I didn't expect core CPI to fall so much.The U.S. consumer price index rose 8.5 percent year-on-year in July, versus expectations of 8.7 percent and 9.1 percent previously. The unadjusted core CPI in the US rose 5.9% year-on-year in July, versus expectations of a 6.1% rise and previous estimate of a 5.9% rise.The implied odds of a 75 basis point hike in September fell from 68 per cent to 31 per cent after the data.I thought Musk was selling ahead of the CPI in order to sell at the top of the market like the previous two times. Now it seems he was wrong? I never thought it would be that easy. The market is a little confusing right now.For example, in yesterday's Silver ETF$iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ , the option movement saw a lot of call buying, pushing the Call /Put ratio to a rare 19.53.For example, these options have expiration dates focused on the next three months, and are targeted to distribute near-term volatility, such as:$SLV 20221118 22.0 CALL$$SLV 20221021 21.0 CALL$For stocks that are not actively traded in options, call/ PUT can easily get out of balance and can easily be perceived to be moving differently. For example, on July 18, the call/ PUT value of the $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ reached 10.91. After that, you know what happened to the gold price.What is more puzzling is that there is no option movement in the $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ this time. In theory, gold and silver fluctuate in the same direction, and the absence of option movement in GLD makes people feel unnatural.$AMD(AMD)$ Yesterday I saw several stock option moves with this kind of bullish deep in-price straddle:$AMD 20220916 87.5 PUT$ & $AMD 20220916 87.5 CALL$But the point I want to make is the following four orders, straddle strategy. Traders bought the call and put at the stock price ($75) on July 6:$AMD 20220819 75.0 CALL$$AMD 20220819 75.0 PUT$Traders then closed out positions of 3750 lots each yesterday and bought the same number of at-the-money(100$) Call and Put expiring in September to continue the straddling strategy:$AMD 20220916 100.0 CALL$$AMD 20220916 100.0 PUT$Before, I might have said that this trader is continuing to be bullish, but the fact that he's just using some of his profits to continue to bet suggests that it's more speculative and that the people who are long can consider reducing their positions a bit.But it has to be said that this kind of operation is very suitable for high position reduction and then continue the call/put speculation, which can only be done with options.Buy the same amount of options with a higher and cheaper strike price and continue to hold the position with the profit after reducing the position, which not only harvests the profit, but also maintains the original position.
Another big story broke last night. A Chinese blogger has claimed that more than 300 fund managers, some of them well-known public fund managers, have been reined in for betting on over-the-counter options, calling it "the biggest scandal in the history of the public fund industry".As of the time I wrote, there had been no official disclosure or clarification from any regulator or company, and the unusually stable performance of the Chinese market had to raise doubts about whether the news was true or false.There were doubts yesterday. Although the Chinese stock market does not open at midnight, the US stock market is open, and the trend of the $Deutsche CSI 300 Index ETF(ASHR)$is too stable. I have seen many friends in the financial circle use the market chart of ASHR to tell people that they do not believe rumors and do not spread rumors.Then I took a look at the option variance on ASHR.Next thing I know, someone bought ASHR's PUT for $3 million on Friday: $ASHR 20220819 30.5 PUT$On August 2, the day before Pelosi's landing, an institution bought 6 million calls to call the A-share market, as if it knew it was dead:$ASHR 20220916 31.0 CALL$ & $ASHR 20220916 33.0 CALL$(This strike price and expiration date are definitely not congressmen's style.)So who is in what mood to lean against the wind and buy a lot of put in such a bullish situation? The intention is worth reading.(Of course, if it turns out to be fake, the blogger who posted it bought it, but I don't think that's proportional to his risk of litigation.)Most people are more concerned about the holdings of A shares, I am not talented, from the PUT type to help you analyze: $ASHR 20220819 30.5 PUT$First, the expiration date is very close, August 19, just 10 days from the expiration date, the standard doomsday option, which means traders are betting on a correction in the near future.Second strike price, strike price choice of 30.5, is expected to fall 2%, not a big thing, a small correction.Finally, there is the total amount, 3 million, which is a common order of magnitude for a mid-sized event, indicating that traders have greater confidence in the pullback.Given all this, if this order is indeed a bet on the impact of fund managers, it means that the impact is just a small correction in the broader market, but it is likely to scare a lot of people. But the correction is not long lasting and the impact is not significant, so what happens is what happens.
It's going up so well, I can't type fast enough to keep up with the stock price.Before let everyone refer to the bottom of the growth stock index: $GameStop(GME)$ , I think the indicator is quite strong.A bull market without demon stocks is not a bull market. Although the hero of this small bull market is not GME (is HKD), but does not prevent GME to be a good trend indicator.This week into the end of the earnings season, still the main growth earnings. Similar to last week's advice, short selling is not recommended as it has become more technical after two weeks of observation.The biggest impact is that fund companies and banking institutions have started to hunt for the bottom because of the cheap prices. You may have expected the results to be right, but you did not expect a 13F document to be disclosed along with the earnings. $Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ good, $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ good, both prove that the price is attractive now.But on the other hand, many stocks have risen to temporary highs, returning to their April highs, when war and supply chains were the main factors, and then when expectations of higher interest rates hit the market.So Wednesday's CPI release is very meaningful. The CPI is influenced by two major factors: crude oil price and service price. Crude oil affects the headline CPI and services affect the core CPI.The current market gains have well reflected the impact of the sharp drop in crude oil prices, the problem comes to the most difficult to suppress service prices, namely the core CPI. In July, the FOMC Powell mentioned in passing the focus on core CPI, which is a very different focus from the previous focus.Services inflation is hard to beat, so to speak, because it is real demand inflation. Macro research circles are now pessimistic that core inflation will come down. While Musk also expects inflation to ease into a mild recession, that doesn't stop the Fed from using core CPI as an excuse to aggressively raise interest rates for now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed is always one step behind.So I would expect a small pullback on Wednesday and then a rise.Why? Don't forget that this quarter most companies are expecting good results for the second half of the year.Some stocks that have risen too high, such as those back to April highs, should be avoided. Some of the early suppression of strong growth stocks and the like can see. The following change is a bit late, but with this meaning, we can go to change the list to find similar.$Snowflake(SNOW)$ : NET Positive earnings results have given a lot of Internet growth stocks confidence to report. Although this is a straddle portfolio, the volatility direction covers up and down, but I think it should go up, target price $190.$SNOW 20220826 165.0 PUT$ & $SNOW 20220826 165.0 CALL$$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 's pre-market earnings tumble on Monday sent gaming stocks tumbling, including $Unity Software Inc.(U)$ .But while Nvidia's graphics cards are primarily focused on console and PC games, Unity's engine covers mobile games, so the next time you see an opportunity like this, take a bargain. Earnings estimates are also good. $U 20221118 50.0 CALL$$Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ This message comes a little late. The company is used car business platform, financial results are good. Friday stock price change when the option screenshots, is a bias model of the buy strategy.$DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.(DOCN)$ Cloud hosting services company, business similar to NET. I'm not surprised to see this bullish move.$DOCN 20221118 50.0 CALL$The options are different here, and we'll show you why.The Pit of Betting on Earnings (2)Previously introduced ABNB financial statements step on the pit of institutions, step on the pit reason is the forecast of the decline, but did not predict the strong market.Today also introduces an earnings report that was cheated by the market: $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$DASH rose as much as 20% in after-hours trading Friday, sending its shares to $92. But because of non-farm expectations, growth stock collective pullback, open down 2%, stock price $79, option blood loss.The best way to avoid this scenario is to avoid buying options that end this week, try to buy options that have plenty of time value three months from now, and don't think it's entirely safe to follow big orders.
July non-farm payrolls data released, beating expectations.Nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 528,000 in July, more than double market expectations of 250,000. Data after the market straight dive, 75bps rate hike probability rose.Why are nonfarm payrolls so strong? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth was widespread, led by significant gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care.From the financial reports of service industries such as $Uber(UBER)$ , $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ , we can see that service consumption is improving.What really matters is the July CPI data, due next Wednesday, Aug. 10. Judging from the trend of crude oil, CPI in July will fall due to the decline in oil prices, which is no doubt, so the market is likely to end the pullback and continue to rise after Wednesday next week.If you don't think falling oil prices alone are enough to prove that inflation has peaked, then you should believe Musk when he says it has, right? Not only will inflation peak, but there will be a mild recession in the next 18 months.So do you trust the market's temporary reaction or do you trust Musk?Discussion of the timing of closing positionsOne of the interesting things to observe this week is that large orders themselves can not grasp the time to close out positions, so the time to close out positions or rely on yourself.The night before the earnings report, some people bet 200 put, which had a strike price of 114 due in this week. Sure enough, the company's earnings fell 7 percent the next day.This guy, however, didn't close his position at the open, and probably wanted to wait for the stock to fall again. But THIS WEEK THE MARKET is too strong, so only at $2.88 to close out the position, not only did not make money, but also lost hundreds of thousands.A final note on Pelosi's PUTAlthough I speculated on Tuesday that the dubious puts were bought by Pelosi or someone around her, I still had a glimmer of hope, wondering if the forward options were indicative of a backstop. Is it a long line? Maybe it wasn't her, but just someone else's long-term risk management layout based on the style of the American leadership?And then on Wednesday, I was scanned for unliquidating movements that completely shut me down. Well, no one else. It's you, Pelosi.Further reflection is superficial. Pelosi may have bought the depth price not only for the risk control of the option, but also for the wider range of the strike price, so as not to be seen as the motive and stop loss line.Another more embarrassing thing, from the chip bill to the visit to Taiwan to invite TSMC to land in the US, I can not help but think that Pelosi's purpose of this trip is to move the world's largest wafer factory to her home, so that she can better invest in the stock market.It's too narrow a horizon.
The PUT thought to have been bought by Ms. Pelosi was closed, annualized return 270%
If I this article "Pelosi bought Ali's billion dollar PUT, didn't she?" The speculation is correct, so after the safe landing of the old lady, this batch of abnormal days PUT should be closed. Sure enough, yesterday, the option movement and collective volume:Do these orders of $Alibaba(BABA)$ look familiar? Was it on the 27th and 28th of July?For example$BABA 20220916 200.0 PUT$, $98 to buy and $104 to close. Net profit of $600 on one lot, an eight-day annualized return of 273%, is indeed a good deal.As for why such a deep strike price was chosen, that's for Ms. Pelosi herself.One guess is that the old lady had no deep understanding of delta fluctuations and time loss, and to avoid these difficult impressions, she simply chose to buy into the forward depth.One might wonder, how is it possible to be speaker of the House and not understand the basics?I can only say that understanding principles is one thing, and having common sense of trading is another. Choosing the forward depth inside the price shows that she understood the risk of the option, but set the margin of safety too high, a little reckless.And she does not need to worry about the liquidity of the excessive price of the right price, there must be specialized market maker services.But then again, she wasn't entirely alone in those moves yesterday, as evidenced by the trading style.$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ As you can see, a set of four options:$AMZN 20220819 120.0 CALL$ & $AMZN 20220819 120.0 PUT$ is to close out positionsTraders continue to roll positions after taking profits: $AMZN 20220916 120.0 CALL$ & $AMZN 20220916 120.0 PUT$Trading ideas and yesterday introduced the Tesla straddle, is the big market straddle. Traders expect the next month to be one-sided, either up or down.I think it's going up.Sell put:It's still yesterday's table, so I'm not going to recalculate it. Please cut the royalty in half and the annualized return in half. Steady hand, the exercise price did not rise with the stock price.Ticker symbolAnnualized incomeExpiration datestrike pricePremium$TSLA 20220812 800.0 PUT$27%2022/8/128006.7$MSFT 20220812 265.0 PUT$26%2022/8/122652.01$BRK.B 20220812 285.0 PUT$25%2022/8/122852.05$KO 20220812 62.0 PUT$18%2022/8/12620.32$PFE 20220812 48.0 PUT$27%2022/8/12480.37$ATVI 20220819 77.0 PUT$19%2022/8/19770.42$VMW 20220819 110.0 PUT$16%2022/8/191100.82$SIMO 20220819 80.0 PUT$67%2022/8/19802.5