Brief good time, China concept stocks continue to be bullish
$Alibaba(BABA)$ Jd.com or Pinduoduo always lead the stock rally, but from the perspective of options, Ali has the best option liquidity. Although Ali is no longer the leader of concept stocks in China, if you want to have a general reference direction for the future trend through large orders, you still have to look at Ali.Finally wait for the recent spread strategy change: $BABA 20221230 95.0 CALL$ & $BABA 20221230 77.0 CALL$ Orders see Alibaba rising above 77 and below 95 in the near term, with other large order price targets in similar ranges.$First Solar(FSLR)$ Yesterday small Mo announced lower FSLR rating, but raised the target
Non-farm Friday! Choose direction or continue sideways?
From this week's upcoming data expectations, the market should be early to cash in on the positive, so this week's trend is likely to be similar to last week, at worst will not fall. So continue with last week's strategy: do index put spread, and TLT sell put.Looking at the specific data, Powell's last speech before the December FOMC meeting was held on Wednesday night. I think it is likely to be consistent with the central idea conveyed by the FOMC in November, that is, to slow down the rate hike pace and extend the rate hike cycle. There is still a high probability that the media will continue to pick dovish statements out of context, the market may be volatile but not large, the S&P 500 is expected to remain between 3900 and 4000.After the speech, the PCE on Thursday is expected to be 0.3% versus 0.5%, which is still positive for the market, or the market will continue to wait for the non-farm data before deciding the direction of volatility.Finally, there's the big data, Friday
Thanksgiving week is a slow week for trading, so we're closed tomorrow and we'll continue our casual chat today.Pre-market initial claims for the week ended November 19 (the number of people in line for unemployment benefits at state unemployment agencies) came in at 240,000 versus 225,000 expected versus 222,000.The higher-than-expected job losses represented another step in the Fed's fight against inflation, but indexes didn't show much reaction to the data, either jumping or plunging in joy. Given that all three indexes closed above 1% yesterday, the market has finished early again, as expected with this kind of unemployment data. Good landing after the collapse has been very give face.Considering that there are meeting minutes tonight, tomorrow will not open, more than half of the traders also went to watch (bet) the ball, suggest tonight's trade light, steady.Continue to add on TLT trading strategy:Between 2004 and 2020, the market experienced two rate hikes. As the chart shows, t
Yesterday, I predicted that the market liquidity is relatively low when it is prone to flash collapse, the result did not expect it actually happened, the oil collapse.The Fed last week's hawkish speech is still a bit useful, yesterday was a typical defensive market, funds flow to medicine and must consume, and blockchain, electric vehicles and growth stocks by the impact of higher interest rates in the sector correction. In terms of the index, the Nasdaq fell the most and the Dow fell the least.But I'm sticking with last week's call on the Dow: It's time to fall. Since I have been slowly languishing at the top recently, I used the method of forward put+ sell put to short the option, so as to save margin and recover a little time loss of the option.And I think it's recent TLT sell put also is pretty good strategy :
Introduce two strategies to deal with this week's market
The strategy of the week is simple: sell putMarkets will be closed on Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving, so liquidity will be poor. From the trend of the market and the VIX bottom situation to see the current upward resistance is not small, but this week is not necessarily down. So on this line of thinking, the market is still hesitant to choose the direction, so it is a good week to sell put.Two strategies are derived from the week's sell put, one is bearish in the afternoon, the other is to prevent the week's plunge, respectively representing the calendar spread strategy and the week's put spread strategy.The biggest risk in this week's sell put is that the market picks its direction ahead of time, taking advantage of the World Cup and Thanksgiving to play a long catch, which is what could happen.There is a saying that if you think a stock should not fall to a certain position, there is a high probability that the opposite will happen. So even if you expect low volatility this wee
Time-limited strategy: betting on AMD's big fluctuations
Buy a little bit of AMD doomsday tonight and bet down 6%:$AMD 20221118 68.0 PUT$ The reason is that the call/put ratio of cboe climbed to a high again today, but from the perspective of the structure, it is not completely one-way bearish, but bear spread. This strategy has been published before, which is an arbitrage strategy for institutions to cope with big fluctuations:Options Insights Ⅹ: What Strategy To Use When Stocks Won't Rise Much?If you are in the habit of watching options moves on a daily basis, you can guess that the put call ratio is out of balance again just by looking at the moves on each underlying index.Deep in-price strategy is not feasible in imitation, because the price difference is very large, so the successful arbitrage needs to calculate the price and
60 or 70? Institutions are betting on the VIX again!
Today's share for the market to add some details.China Concept Stock Option Order:FXI sees 26 above and 29 below. Now the market is limited space to rise, want to do more suggestions to find the need to make up stocks. Several other mid-range ETFs have also shown significant traces of profit-taking, namely, closing out calls with lower strike prices and buying calls with cheaper and out-of-the-money strike prices. That's pretty common around mid-August.Buffett buys $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Buffett bought 60.06 million shares of TSMC in Q3, which is the largest number of hands among all the increased holdings and positions. The others are not worth watching. On the one hand, choosing to invest in TSMC may be the bottom of the semiconductor cycle; on the other hand, the anti-globalization industrial chain is controllable. At this point, Buffett chose TSMC instead of Intel, indicating that there is still a certain gap in technolog
Two things, Fed speeches and earnings.Christopher Waller, a hawkish Fed governor, continued his hawkish rhetoric before the bell today, saying that despite last week's good news on consumer prices, "we have some way to go" before the US central bank stops raising rates."It's good that we're finally seeing some evidence that inflation is starting to come down," Waller said. "We need to see this inflation-impacting behavior continue and slowly start to come down before we really start to think about taking our brakes off."Mr Waller argues that "the 7.7% rise in CPI is huge" and that the pace of decline is not the focus. The focus is still on the ultimate inflation target.I think some media outlets have translated this to mean that Fed officials believe there are reasons to slow the pace of rate hikes soon, which is very dovish, but it doesn't really make much sense to focus on that.This is the final week of earnings season for the U.S. stock market. Looking back over the past two months,
Is peaking inflation a good thing? What should you buy?
If you look at the big options orders last night, the bullish time window is very narrow, which basically means these days:On the whole, yesterday's big call is generally biased towards speculation in the short window, although I would not choose to place a long-term order at such a high position.Yesterday's CPI figure of 7.7% was much lower than expected, clearly inflation has peaked and market shorts are being squeezed.In theory, it's not just a short squeeze anymore. The CPI figure of 7.7 per cent is a representative figure, representing the phased outcome of the beginning of a peak in inflation. So if you take that logic and look at the previous market, it feels different.The Dow is way too high right now.I was wrong about the Dow's rise. If the Dow's previous rally was driven not by dovish FOMC expectations but by expectations of a CPI peak, then the market had already planned this trade a month ago. Then data landing, the market will soon end.If that's right, we're already at the
The October CPI data will be released on Thursday and I believe it will come down somewhat, but will it reach 7.9%?Historically, only July has been below analysts' expectations, February has been flat, and all the other months have been above expectationsThere is a strong need for a pullback$DJIA(.DJI)$ , which means that even if the data falls short of expectations, it will only be good news landing. The difference between a good number and a bad one is a pullback on the day of the CPI after it has blown out short positions, or a straight pullback because the data is higher than expected.At this stage of the rise or to short squeeze. So Thursday's premarket low open is not in place, October 28 market is likely to come again.If you think the day's CPI action is complicated, consider the must-fall earnings report:$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ This quarter the auto industry earnings pull down for