To The Moon

Impacted by last week's plunge, tech earnings this week, even with robust numbers, may not see significant rallies and could potentially decline further. As a result, large options orders for tech stocks appear to have turned quite conservative, with institutions starting to employ in-the-money option combinations to reduce costs and control risks. This reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of the current market rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I believe META will remain the strongest performer this earnings season due to its monopolistic advantages. However, expectations should not be set too high, as the previous sell-off has made $525 a minor resistance level, making a repeat of last quarter's 20% surge unrealistic. No

After examining Friday's new options positions, I feel there's no need to wait until Monday's market close. I can assert that this week, the battle for NVIDIA's stock price will revolve around the $800 level.Specifically, I'm optimistic that NVIDIA will be able to maintain a price above $800 this week, although upside may be capped around the $840 level.Let me first share the overall picture of NVIDIA's options. Although some might regret missing last week's plunge, there's no need to worry, as the next major options expiration event is on May 17th, when the monthly options for May expire, with a significant number of open interest contracts. However, the specific dynamics will depend on the price movement preferences in May, for which I'll conduct a thorough analysis as we approach that d

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ failed to withstand the squeeze pressure and plunged towards $800. The overall market had a significant number of options expiring on April 19th, with a heavy tilt towards puts, creating a resonance effect. As my friend said, it seems like we have an "option expiration day" every month now.Despite our thorough analysis this week, our optimism was a bit excessive. However, the silver lining is that after experiencing this minor squeeze, we'll be more cautious when we encounter similar option expiration setups in the future.Although NVIDIA's stock price took a substantial hit, there's some good news. After this Friday, the massive number of put options expiring on April 19th will be cleared, leading to a cliff-like decrease in NV

$NVIDIA (NVDA)$ The TSMC earnings report is crucial, and NVIDIA's stock price trajectory this week largely hinges on TSMC's performance. If TSMC's earnings are favorable, NVIDIA's stock price is likely to close above $850 on Friday. Conversely, if TSMC's earnings disappoint, NVIDIA's stock could slide to around $800. After all, this week's outstanding put options for NVIDIA are heavily concentrated at the lower strike prices of $800, $850, $820, $840, and $830.As a steadfast bull, I anticipate that TSMC's earnings will boost NVIDIA, allowing it to maintain a level above $850 this week. However, a dip to $800 is also within expectations, potentially triggering a squeeze. A squeeze, similar to GameStop (GME) being driven to $800, refers to a short-c

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ - The Nvidia options market is expected to replay last week's battle, with market makers continuing to pressure both calls and puts. The 900 calls ($NVDA 20240419 900 CALL$ ) and 850/800 puts ($NVDA 20240419 850 PUT$ , $NVDA 20240419 800 PUT$ ) remain the targets to be crushed. So after taking out the 900 calls on Monday, the next 4 days will be a defense of 850. Holding 850 could allow for a minor bounce, but failing to defend it will likely trigger a squeeze down towards 800. The trading mindset remains similar to last week:Eit

The biggest pain point for stock investors is the inability to track the movements of large funds in real-time. Although fund companies disclose their stock purchases and sales through 13F filings every quarter, these are still backward-looking reports. Given the different trading styles of various funds, investors find it difficult to grasp where the money is actually flowing. Funds may have already adjusted their positions by the time of disclosure, with even investment giants like Berkshire Hathaway significantly reshuffling their holdings within a single quarter.As such, the ability to directly track large order flows has become a major advantage of options trading. The now-famous story of the "NVIDIA $200 Million Whale" is likely familiar to veteran options traders. We have tracked th

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Options Market Makers Went Crazy This WeekThe market makers absolutely crushed the $NVDA$ put options for this week's expiry - the 870, 850, 840 and even 800 strikes all got wiped out. Shockingly, they even killed the 900 calls. I thought the 870 strike was an overly aggressive target earlier in the week, but the market makers actually pulled it off.A ton of open interest remains for the April monthly options expiring next week. However, the script may be similar to this week's. If the stock price holds in the 880-900 range on Friday like today, the remaining open interest could get obliterated again. Without further ado, I'm selling the $NVDA 20240419 880 PUT$ 

I was originally going to analyze $Netflix(NFLX)$ earnings report, but after reviewing the option chain, I couldn't find any meaningful insights. Option trading volume is not at yearly lows, but it's close to the bottom, with almost no institutional activity on the large order side. Based on historical volatility, there should have been some straddle trading, but there wasn't any. The only two large orders that looked like earnings bets were outright purchases of put options: $NFLX 20240510 520.0 PUT$  and $NFLX 20241220 380.0 PUT$ . Meanwhile, all the fundamental analysis articles about Netflix were bullish, in

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ direction felt unclear yesterday, with two main trading paths emerging: either bet that Nvidia will not fall to 800 over these next two weeks, or bet that it will decline to 800. My thinking on the former is to wager that it doesn't fall below 850 this week and doesn't breach 800 next week. Because 825 is a support level and 750 is another support level. Then the sell put options for expirations over the next two weeks has three strike price choices: 850, 800, 750 - you can choose the one fitting your risk appetite.The contrasting second way to trade is to bet the stock slides towards 800 over the next two weeks, which also gives rise to several strategies, such as three: buy put, sell put, or sell call. Buying put means purcha

$Nvidia (NVDA)$ not breaking down through 870 is one thing, but actually breaking down is another matter. Tuesday's open failing to hold triggered a mini downward chain reaction, with NVDA's decision level reaching 850. The safest put selling level ahead of April 19th over the next two weeks has shifted to 800. The recent sideways trading has also impacted longer-dated option positioning - some June/July far-dated calls, especially those with strikes above 1100, have seen closing sales or new sell openings. As for the $200 million guy's 880 calls, as long as the stock price reaches above 1024 by June 21st, he can break even.Current put option open interest over 10,000 contracts ranked:$NV