To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Arbitrage institutions are selling next week’s $177.5 call and $180 call:$NVDA 20250725 177.5 CALL$ $NVDA 20250725 180.0 CALL$ These are being hedged with the $185 call and $187.5 call.For this week’s expiration, the $175 call has seen an open interest exceeding 100,000 contracts, hitting a critical level. If the stock price fails to rise further, consider doing a last-minute sell call at $175:$NVDA 20250718 175.0 CALL$ It’s almost certain NVIDIA will close above $170 today, so selling a $170 put for next week’s expiration is

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report saw the stock price spike and then pull back. I believe the main issue is similar to what was mentioned yesterday: Q3 is expected to grow 4% quarter-over-quarter, but the numbers aren’t particularly enticing. Additionally, the stock had already hit new highs prior to the report. Even though management expressed strong optimism about AI prospects, the stock price gains remained within the forecast range.This quarter’s earnings reports may exhibit a similar pattern across the board: Q2 significantly overdraws full-year expectations, leading to high openings followed by sell-offs after the disclosure.It is worth paying attention to data center-related stocks. TSMC management indica

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report is scheduled for Thursday, with mixed expectations:Earnings Positives: Strong Q2 data, with an 11% quarter-over-quarter growth; full-year revenue guidance may be raised.Potential Earnings Negatives: Average performance expected for Q3 and Q4, with Q3 growth projected at 3-6% QoQ and a conservative outlook for Q4 at -6%.Overall, the positives seem to have been priced in, such as the potential upward revision of full-year revenue guidance, while the earnings report may confirm the negative expectations.The anticipated volatility for this earnings report is 4.6%, with a trading range of $224–246.Two main strategies are being adopted for this earnings report:Simple bullish strategy:

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla's upcoming earnings report is likely to be uneventful. The numbers are weak, with Q2 deliveries down about 14% year-over-year. Even with AI hype, it won’t translate into revenue or profits in the short term.A safe bearish approach is to sell calls. I sold next week’s 350 strike call:$TSLA 20250725 350.0 CALL$ .For those looking for a deeper bearish position without spending much, consider this zero-cost bearish strategy employed by a major bear. It avoids IV crush concerns and profits if Tesla’s stock drops below $310:Buy 1x $TSLA 20260116 400.0 CALLSell 1x $TSLA 20260116 300.0 CALLBuy 2x $TSLA 20260116 250.0 PUTThis bear is very crafty, executing trad

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Institutions continued to sell call options at 167.5 and 170 this week. Currently, there are 140,000 open interest contracts for the 170 call, and any strike with more than 100,000 open interest warrants attention.The largest open interest for puts expiring this week is at 165, 162.5, and 160 strikes. Coupled with additional 160 put positions across other expirations, it’s clear that the bears are hoping for NVIDIA to pull back to 160 this week.However, the 160 put isn’t strictly bearish. For example, the majority of the 160 puts expiring on August 15th and August 29th are sold positions, signaling that many traders believe NVIDIA will remain above 155 before the earnings report.On Monday’s open, NVIDIA briefly dipped to 161.7 befor

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The bullish trend is very strong, but bearish crash bets are starting again. Next week, it will either rise normally or experience a flash crash.Institutions are selling calls at 170 and hedging at 177.5. Bullish options are seeing a large number of new positions for the following weeks, presenting an optimistic landscape, though I can't say for sure.Bearish options are being opened for puts expiring on the 18th at strike prices of 140 and 141. Additionally, there's significant open interest for the halving level at 95, but this doesn't correspond to bearish positions on $SPY$.I lean toward normal trading next week, and my position is sell call 170 + sell put 160. If NVIDIA’s stock price breaks 168, I'll consider rolling the positio

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The market remains bullish, with NVIDIA's stock price expected to challenge 170. For now, I'll follow the bullish trend and take it one step at a time.Institutions are rolling their sell calls to next week at the 170 strike, hedging with 177.5.The $NVDA 20250808 160.0 CALL$  expiring August 8 hasn’t been closed, and the $NVDA 20250715 165.0 CALL$  expiring July 15 is seeing mostly buy-side activity, indicating the current trend could extend into next week.For now, selling puts is a viable strategy. Selling both this week’s and next week’s puts at the 160 strike is reasonable, but avoid using lev

$Intel(INTC)$ On Tuesday, Intel ($INTC$) inexplicably surged by 7%, and a wealthy trader purchased over $7 million worth of long-dated call options. Specifically:$INTC 20260320 24.0 CALL$ : 17,800 contracts opened.This wasn’t the only bullish bet. There were also:$INTC 20251017 28.0 CALL$ : 9,125 contracts opened.A long-dated straddle: $INTC 20260320 20.0 PUT$  + $INTC 20260320 25.0 CALL$ .Based on the open interest, Intel's outlook seems positive. The bullish target is 25, wit

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ There has been notable activity in long-dated bearish single-leg put options:$SPY 20251121 500.0 PUT$ : 20,000 contracts opened, with a transaction value of approximately $7.6 million.$SPY 20250829 600.0 PUT$ : 10,000 contracts opened, with a transaction value of around $7.6 million.It’s highly likely that the same trader placed these two orders in separate trades — one betting on a long-term volatility surge, and the other on a near-term drop to 600. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ If all goes as expected, NVIDIA will likely continue fluctuating between 1

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The market may see fluctuations in the range of $S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)$ between 20 and 30 in the near term.I've been calling for a pullback for two weeks, and I’ll continue to do so — NVIDIA is due for a covered call strategy. Judging by the trend, a pullback is inevitable in the near term. Selling calls this week is a safe bet.Institutions are selling calls at strike prices of 160, 162.5, and 165, while hedging with 170 and 172.5.On the put side, there’s something noteworthy: institutions have opened 27,000 contracts of 115 puts $NVDA 20250711 115.0 PUT$ , likely betting on a sudden volatility spike. I expect