To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Based on GEX analysis, SPY is likely to close at 750 this week — rate hike or not, that's the price. Barring any surprises, low-level consolidation should begin next week. Also interesting: GLD saw a buy-side opening of 15,000 contracts on the 430 Call $GLD 20261120 430.0 CALL$ — suggesting gold has a high probability of bottoming out after Friday's meeting. $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ Everyone thinks Trump is about to make a deal, but before any deal, there will surely be one more round of death threats. Generally, Trump chooses to announce during trading hours on a weekday — he won't pick a weekend wh

Over the weekend, the three tech giants reached a verbal agreement to slow AI development, causing AI-related concept stocks to plunge — hardware fell, and cloud giants fell too. But I'm thinking about something else: Anthropic's post-IPO earnings and stock performance will likely be very hard to predict, because the CEO can say whatever he wants. Data disclosure is one thing; the earnings call is another. The broader market pullback driven by the three giants' rhetoric looks like a great Sell Put opportunity to me. I mean, do you believe commercial companies won't compete, or do you believe I'm Qin Shi Huang? The verbal slowdown has no actual capex data to back it up — it looks more like expectation management. One explanation for the three giants' slowdown is that they're compromising wi

30-year Treasury yields hit another new high, and oil prices continued rising, breaking above $100. Trump said oil prices won't fall until after the midterm elections — meaning there's one last push higher — so oil prices duly rallied first. The broader market dipped slightly. As long as Friday's CPI isn't too outrageous, the likely outcome is a dip-and-rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Judging from call openings, the target for this MUSE-driven move is 700, with many large block trades opening $META 20261002 670.0 CALL$  $META 20261016 800.0 CALL$ . But whether it can reach that level and the path it takes

Today's market is quite eventful — oil broke through $100/barrel, gold rose, Bitcoin rose, Treasury yields rose, semiconductors rose, and even the VIX rose. The only thing that fell was the broader market. Macro inflation is heading higher, but the AI industry outlook is also bullish — it's a "each to their own" kind of dynamic. I'd suggest paying close attention to GPT-6 Astra. The fact that it can lift semiconductors in such a challenging macro environment makes me wonder how much higher they'd fly if the macro environment were actually favorable. Also, we should expect a wave of positive news from closed-source models going forward. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Pre-market, META announced its new personal AI assistant, MUSE, which has already cl

$Intel(INTC)$ This time, Intel is the star of the short squeeze. Last week, I warned everyone not to sell naked calls. The consequence of a month-long consolidation and trading below 90 is that a large number of Sell Calls accumulated at four strike levels: 95, 100, 105, and 110. After all, there wasn't much expectation of a rally before the September 18 Triple Witching. But then Tuesday's pre-market gap-up broke through 100 — a sudden squeeze. It also broke above 105 intraday. At this point, it looks like it may challenge the 110 resistance level. Probably similar to NVIDIA — breaking through the 230 resistance before pulling back. In other words, INTC will likely break through 110 before a pullback. On the options front, large at-the-money Sell

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The market's script over the past two days is almost identical to last month's — a rally in the first few days of the month, led by NVIDIA. The only question is whether the consolidation and pullback that followed will also be the same. If that's the playbook, then after tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls data is released, the market will gap up and sell off. The expected minimum pullback level over the next two weeks is 755 $SPY 20260911 755.0 PUT$ $SPY 20260915 755.0 PUT$. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Although I don't think September is a good time to buy calls,

$Apple(AAPL)$ I previously thought that even though Apple is a top-tier contrarian stock, it would at least need to show some pullback given the magnitude of macro rate hikes. But I forgot about Apple's new CEO taking over — his first public appearance is on September 10. Before that, the stock absolutely cannot fall — how would that look? Wall Street these days can't even let the market drop on July 4th, so you really have to appreciate the unwritten rules of the game. In any case, although there is a 340 Sell Call block trade on September 9 $AAPL 20270115 355.0 CALL$ that makes it hard for the stock to break out significantly, I have no doubt that Apple won't fall before next we

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The stock price is currently moving toward the 200–210 center of gravity. You can continue to consider the Sell Call $NVDA 20260911 230.0 CALL$ and Sell Put $NVDA 20260911 200.0 PUT$ strategies. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ Yesterday, EWY had a 20,000-contract Sell Put block trade on the 155 Put $EWY 20261120 155.0 PUT$, which translates to roughly 140 for Hynix $SKHY 20260911 140.0 PUT$. Based on the opening activity, the stock should clo

The next month is going to be a chess match of mind games between the Fed, Wall Street, Trump, the shorts, and the bulls — all trying to figure out whether the other side has anticipated their anticipation. So my predictions below may not be right either. Fed representative Warsh gave his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday, causing major market turbulence. What did Warsh say? He said he is firmly committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, so the Fed still has a lot of work to do. He didn't mention rate hikes, but since the Fed's "work" is ambiguous, the market and some media outlets automatically added rate-hike expectations into their messaging. Maybe Warsh can bring down inflation through other means, or maybe this month's nonfarm payrolls and CPI will both come in below expectations.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ With this earnings report, NVIDIA has cemented its status as the Federal Reserve of the AI world. Going forward, its earnings releases will be roughly equivalent to macroeconomic data releases. I haven't figured out the full implications yet, but one thing is clear: the nature of the company has changed. Wednesday's largest block trade combo was Sell Put 200 + Buy Call 220 + Sell Call 230. As today's opening showed — opening at 222, hitting 225 intraday — it was remarkably precise. Next week, there's no need to look at open interest data or GEX analysis. Just reference today's intraday block trade: the September 4-expiry 235 Put $NVDA 20260904 235.0 PUT$ — volume 9,1