OptionsDelta

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    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·00:44

      Earnings Warning - Heavy Put Buying is Not a Good Sign

      Based on the current trend, SPY is likely headed towards 545, although a fresh rally to new highs is possible after risk is released. However, the potential downturn could be painful. $Netflix(NFLX)$ Netflix has a high probability of leading the earnings pullback, as major option flows are skewed bearishly, though this doesn't necessarily imply disappointing results.This week's put spread targets 600-570:Buy NFLX 20240719 600 PutsSell NFLX 20240719 570 PutsNext week's put spread strikes are 660-580:Buy NFLX 20240726 650 PutsSell NFLX 20240726 580 PutsImplying around a 10% potential downside. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ While Netflix bearishness is expected, the emergence of large MSFT put buyers is surprising, incl
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      Earnings Warning - Heavy Put Buying is Not a Good Sign
    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-18 01:25
      The pullback has arrived again, but after Wednesday's shakeout, sentiment turned more optimistic ahead of TSM's earnings on Thursday. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ There were an abnormally high number of "doomsday" option trades for this Friday's expiration, but that's understandable - positions need to be actively managed or rolled as the landscape shifts daily into expiration.We first saw a large 30k lot buyer in the NVDA 20240719 133 calls on Friday, which was unwound on Tuesday.Then on Tuesday, a massive 120,000 lots contract bearish put spread was initiated:Buy $NVDA 20240719 119.0 PUT$ Sell $NVDA 20240719 115.0 PUT$ 
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    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-17 17:41
      $Netflix(NFLX)$ - While the outlook seems positive, option flows are skewed towards bearish spreads, though that doesn't necessarily mean the earnings will disappoint. Here are some notable trades for reference:Calendar SpreadBuy $NFLX 20240719 650.0 PUT$ Sell $NFLX 20240726 650.0 PUT$ Bearish Put SpreadBuy $NFLX 20250117 590.0 PUT$  x1Sel $NFLX 20250117 470.0 PUT$  x2(Not a 1:1 ratio, buying 1 lot of 590 puts, selling 2 lots of 470 puts)Iron CondorBuy
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    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-16

      Apple Still Bullish? How to Free-Ride Upside Calls

      $Apple(AAPL)$ Monday saw a 1.6% rally in Apple on an upgrade, but this week's institutional flows have skewed bearish - buying 230 puts, selling 225 puts; buying 227.5 puts, selling 222.5 puts.So let's start by selling some upside calls first: Sell $AAPL 20240719 240 CALL$ That said, there were some bullish trades as well, employing a rather ingenious "free-ride" call spread strategy:Buy $AAPL 20240816 230 CALL$  x1Sell $AAPL 20240816 260 CALL$  x10The rationale is to buy 1 lot of 230 calls while selling 10 lots of 260 calls - essentially betting
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      Apple Still Bullish? How to Free-Ride Upside Calls
    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-12

      Don't Panic, It's Just a Technical Correction

      TL;DR: Over the next couple of weeks, potential pullback targets are SPY 550, Tesla 230-250, while Nvidia and Apple targets remain unchanged from previous ranges.The Market Continues to PullbackWall Street operates with a sense of urgency, one might say haste.While I had expected a higher probability of a market pullback after the August 2nd FOMC meeting, the old Wall Street hands couldn't even wait for that, selling off aggressively post-CPI data.Powell had to testify over two days, bearing the brunt. Remember when the banking crisis was shorted right into the FOMC day? What did you all do to the poor guy this time?But back to the main point, based on option flows, this mini pullback is likely to persist until next week, with SPY finding support around 550.SPY peaked at 562 on Thursday be
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      Don't Panic, It's Just a Technical Correction
    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-12
      Tech Stocks Pullback, Where Did the Money Go? Look at the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ The long-awaited tech pullback has finally arrived. Yesterday, the Nvidia weekly $130 and $125 puts saw a surge in open interest, suggesting the stock will likely settle above $120 for this week and next. As a result, one can look to sell some Nvidia $125 puts$NVDA 20240719 125.0 PUT$  , or the $120 strikes for a more conservative play.For Apple, I would continue selling puts. The $225 strike looks viable $AAPL 20240719 220.0 PUT$ , or the $220 puts for a safer stance.Tesla's range is quite wide at $245-$275. After the pullb
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    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-10

      Tesla Reaches $265, Institutions Roll to Next Upside Targets

      Let's Discuss Targets for the Three Tech Giants $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ On Tuesday, Tesla shares continued rallying, briefly hitting a high of $265.61 and achieving the interim upside target. This triggered a slew of institutional roll trades towards higher strikes.For example:Call RollClosed: $TSLA 20240712 $245 Call$ - 32,000 contractsOpened: $TSLA 20240719 $275 Call$ - 29,800 contractsThe key detail here is that the $245 calls showed only 23,000 contracts closed out against the roll, meaning the other side just outright bailed without a buyer. The market makers ran for the exits.What does this signal?The two highest call strikes for this week have become the $300 and $275 calls!And friends, this is only mid-week with Tesla just breaching $260.Nake
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      Tesla Reaches $265, Institutions Roll to Next Upside Targets
    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-09

      Tesla Gears Up for $300

      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Yesterday, the highest strike for new Tesla call option opening interest was the September 20th $230 calls with 65,000 contracts added.The main contributor was a familiar roll trader that we all know - the same player who was previously short the $185 calls, covered that position on June 28th by buying the $200 calls, and then on Monday rolled that $200 call position up to the $230 strikes:Closed: $TSLA 20240816 200 Call$Opened: $TSLA 20240920 230 Call$Based on the order prints, it shows a 54,000 contract roll up to 68,000 contracts, with $310 million in closing trades and $270 million in new opening premium paid.Let's do the math on the upside target - $230 strike plus $39.80 is $269.80, aligning with our prior expectations o
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      Tesla Gears Up for $300
    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-08
      $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Unsurprisingly, there were no routine large institutional call sale prints on Friday, as uncertainty reigns whether this week brings consolidation or a continued rally.Based on open interest, there's a possibility this week shapes up as a battle around $245.My plan is to sell the July 12 $235 puts.$TSLA 20240712 235.0 PUT$  $Apple(AAPL)$ The upside momentum has been ferocious, with a 7.5% rally last week. Scanning the flows, there were many sizable call buyers adding exposure, like the weekly $227.5 calls and August $235 calls.However, I feel the $220-$230 zone may present a sticking point to clear. Nonetheless, I'll
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    • OptionsDeltaOptionsDelta
      ·07-05

      Is Tesla's stock price high?

      Time to rollover position $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Let's start with what everyone cares about most - Tesla. The bad news is the rally has been so furious that there's lack of consensus on positioning. The good news is we're not yet at $265.Previously, I outlined Tesla's first upside target of $220-$240, with $265 as the next logical extension. Little did I expect the first phase to complete within just a week. So now we continue higher, but the path is uncertain.Looking at this week, closing call strikes were very elevated - market makers bailed out of 11,000 contracts on the $235 calls. Similar sizes were closed on the $230 and $240 strikes around 9,000 each.But new opening interest is all over the place. Based on maximum unresolved open interest, es
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      Is Tesla's stock price high?
       
       
       
       

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