To The Moon

$INTC$ An absolutely absurd rally. I thought recommending sell puts yesterday was aggressive — turns out it was still too conservative. Some large call buys have appeared, like $INTC 20260821 110.0 CALL$  and $INTC 20260618 130.0 CALL$ . That said, judging by the tape, some of those may have been closed by the end of the day. Put strikes are roughly where expected — around 70. Selling puts at that level is fine, or just wait for a pullback. For holders: not every potential pullback requires exiting a position. Some may try to sell high and buy back lower — but this year, that's a great way to get left behind. $NVDA$ Same view as yesterday: range-bound

Tonight's price action says it all. The sell-off stems from a rumor about OpenAI's performance — specifically, that the company missed its internal revenue target for the first quarter. That's awkward. Competitors Google and Anthropic are both seeing growth. Only OpenAI is stagnating. If Google and Anthropic fail to deliver results this year, the US market would be looking at a crash far worse than tonight's move. All things considered, tonight's drop isn't that severe. This OpenAI revenue news is essentially a mini-earnings report. Barring surprises, we're likely to see this same dynamic repeat next quarter. On the flip side, we could also see a similar repeat of the Anthropic growth narrative. The biggest issue from OpenAI's miss: the company pre-booked massive data center capacity. If r

$NVDA$ For the first time in nine months, NVDA looks ready to break into a new range. We're now in the phase of testing the upper bound — expectations point to 225–235. Given NVDA's massive market cap, a 10–20% surge isn't exactly typical. That makes selling puts a more comfortable way to chase the move. The strike depends on your risk tolerance. $AMD$ AMD should hit 400 this year. Pullbacks are good entry points. Right now, the bears are targeting the 5-day moving average at 310 and the gap at 300. If this were last year's market, I'd say AMD would either rally into earnings or hold 330 in a tight range, then pull back post-print — a perfect entry opportunity. But after Intel's earnings, those old rules may not apply. That said, Friday's jump likely priced in much of the upside. So the po

$INTC$ Selling premium in this market is tricky — you never know which stock will catch a hot narrative and get flooded with retail flow. Looking at recent chip earnings, even good expectations aren't enough if the numbers fall short. Intel's earnings should be solid, with full-year guidance likely raised. But some of the run-up is already priced in. Selling puts is still the safer approach — consider the 60 strike $INTC 20260424 60.0 PUT$ . There were quite a few 50-strike puts positioned for a pullback. But given the current CPU hype, 50 will attract strong dip-buying. Most put flow seems to have abandoned the 50 target, shifting focus to the 55–60 range. Earnings could still produce a sell-off. That said, I wouldn't rec

$NVDA$ You have to admit — 200 is a tough ceiling. This week's institutional spread: sell the 202.5 call $NVDA 20260424 202.5 CALL$ , buy the 207.5 call $NVDA 20260424 207.5 CALL$ . Expecting a broader chip pullback after Intel earnings — that 182.5 put $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$  is still open. That said, NVDA likely stays above 190 this week. $TSLA$ Institutional spread this week: sell the 400 call $TSLA 20260424 400.0 CALL$ , buy the 420 call $TSLA 20260

ASML and TSMC earnings have essentially set the tone for this earnings season: solid results, but the stock opens lower. A couple of days ago, I mentioned that shorts were stepping in. On Wednesday, the bearish flow intensified, with two large orders in particular catching my attention. $NVDA Buy $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$  — 50k contracts, notional ~$3M. As shown in the chart, institutions were actively buying these 182.5 puts expiring next week in the final minutes of yesterday's session. The implication: unless nothing happens over the weekend, something will. Not necessarily Iran — could be something else. Given how ASML has traded lower post-earnings, the expectation of a pullback to key moving averages seems increasi

$VIX$ A large VIX call order hit Tuesday: the 28 strike $VIX 20260519 28.0 CALL$  — 119.6k contracts, $11.48M in premium. A bet of this size implies a sharp, gap-filling move lower in the broader market. In theory, regional conflicts are winding down. The only thing Trump might be missing this time around — compared to 2025 — is that he never got to shout "buy" before the market did it on its own. But triggering a selloff just so he can make a speech? That sounds ridiculous. I'd rather believe someone else has an unknown reason to hedge with volatility. Another less clear VIX call: the 24 strike $VIX 20260722 24.0 CALL$ . The print landed right in the bid-

The whole world now believes Trump won't keep fighting, so stocks keep rallying. There's a big difference between actually wanting war and pretending to fight while wanting a deal. As a result, some well-placed insider short positions that were heavily positioned for a crash this week are getting crushed — like the 31.3k contracts of the SMH 405 put for this week $SMH 20260417 405.0 PUT$ . Of course, something else could still happen this week. But looking at the lifecycle of these weekly options, this large order is likely headed to zero — unless Trump drops another "obliteration" tweet. Even then, I think the market would keep rallying. At today's open, a large bullish order hit: the software ETF IGV 90 call

That's not an easy question to answer. But I checked the two perfectly timed insider large orders — $MU 20260618 400.0 CALL$  and $TSM 20260618 370.0 CALL$  — and neither has been closed. That suggests the trend could continue into earnings season. What's different between Q2 and Q1? Aside from the war, Anthropic announced $30B+ annualized revenue. Unlike OpenAI's verbal bragging, this sharp growth gives the AI sector a real shot in the arm. It won't lift all tech stocks, but it does keep the narrative alive that AI investment can generate strong returns. Anthropic's rapid rise is bad news for the software sector $IGV$, which is trending as weakly as Chin

Looking at the large option flows, after four consecutive up days, the market seems to have thrown in the towel. Sentiment can be broken into a few camps: No More Crash Camp: Short VIX $VIX 20260722 28.0 CALL$ , short SQQQ $SQQQ 20260410 76.5 CALL$ . Sideways Camp: Year-end sell puts on Intel $INTC 20261218 33.0 PUT$  and $INTC 20260918 39.0 PUT$ . Big Range-Bound Until May 1st: Sell put $NVDA 20260501 150.0 PUT$  + sell call