To The Moon

At present, the market is in a bold and conservative state, and the bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce game on the last rate hike. For now, the bears are winning.It can be expected that the Fed will not raise interest rates at this FOMC meeting, and the focus is on Powell's attitude: will there be a last rate hike in November. Powell would have one of three attitudes: raise rates, no rate hike, depends on the data. I am more inclined to the third attitude, from the expiry date of the large option order, the institution also believes that the turning point of the small correction market is in the non-agricultural farm on October 6:The expiration date of the call option sold just before the close on Friday revealed a lot $M

The market has been rescued by Nvidia again. Although the strong financial results, Nvidia stock prices opened higher and lower, poor performance, leading technology stocks fell. If Nvidia misses expectations, expect the market to repeat last September's post-Jackson Hole performance.But before the FOMC meeting on September 21, the market could face another free-for-all.The agency is split on Apple. The market is hedging, with bullish institutions choosing to sell ITM put options $AAPL 20230908 180.0 PUT$ and bearish institutions being more aggressive and buying OTM options directly $AAPL 20230929 145.0 PUT$ .老虎pc端The tw

The familiar story has returned, and it was unexpected that the short play of Wall Street was renewed again in the third quarter of 2023, rewriting the legend.A quick rundown of the first two seasons. After the FOMC meeting on February 2, some people bought 50,000 lots of xlf puts $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$ , holding it for more than a month, and rolling profits after the banking crisis erupted and the government announced its intervention. He used the macro pressure generated by the FOMC to cover up an early positioning of small bank stocks.The problem is, if I can see a problem, can't people in the government see it? So in May, after two months of preparation, the SEC announced that it would pursue any form of misconduct tha

Tesla and Netflix each fell 8% to become the trigger for this market correction. There is no hard damage in the earnings report, but the release time just before the index adjustment and FOMC, the market has a pullback demand. The FOMC meeting next Thursday, July 27, is likely to raise interest rates for the last time, and the dollar has rebounded after falling to a low point.So what is the target of this pullback? Two orders caught my eye:sell $MSFT 20230804 365.0 CALL$sell $CRM 20230804 245.0 CALL$I think the seller weight is greater than the buyer weight in the big options order, because the margin pressure is so muc

The market sentiment has been very good recently, after all, even Microsoft has made a large call option order. As I wrote in my article last week.However, the commenter reminded that the trader had closed his position on Friday (July 14) and did not roll his position, so he did not eat the most fat meat today, which is regrettable.It also shows that the driving factor of this guy's trading is very simple, that is, the index weight adjustment, so he ran away before the adjustment.In fact, the technological revolution is such a thing, as time continues to advance good news will continue to appear, holding the stock is more important than anything.Last month, analysts at Bank of America were bearish on AI. Analysts say th

The smooth landing of the Blizzard acquisition is not only good for Blizzard, but also good for Microsoft's stock price - although I do not know if there is any other market behind this big order.buy $MSFT 20230818 365.0 CALL$This option large order has a total transaction volume of 12,000, with a total transaction amount of about 3 million. From the choice of the exercise price, Microsoft is expected to have a 7.6% increase in the short term. The institutional buying opportunity came on Monday, when Nasdaq announced a lower opening of its weighted stock price, and institutions took the opportunity to attract funding.For a near-term option with an expiration date of only 37 days, it is a veritable aggres

In May we profiled a VIX player with a very aggressive trading style. He hedged his bets by selling low strike options and buying high strike options, betting that a big crash could happen this year (VIX>90). Someone made a similar move on Thursday, trading the exact same strategy before the June non-farm release, but with a less aggressive strike price:sell $VIX 20231018 27.0 CALL$buy $VIX 20231018 45.0 CALL$The trader bought 83,000 calls with an October 18 expiration date with a strike price of 45 for a total turnover of 4.49 million and sold 27,000 cal

On Monday, unusual options movements appeared in $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ shares, with large bearish orders followed by large bullish orders. Professional traders really know how to play the game.Reasons for stock price move: New energy vehicle companies collectively announced June sales, Xiaopeng in June increased by 15%; The delivery of new cars of NIO broke 10,000, an increase of 74%; The ideal monthly delivery exceeded 30,000 for the first time, an increase of 15%; The most heavyweight Tesla Q2 deliveries reached a new high, with production up 86% and deliveries up 83% year-on-year, all exceeding market expectations and refreshing the highest delivery record in a single quarter.Affected by the above good news, new energy vehicles drove higher on Mon

Speaking at the ECB's annual forum on Thursday, Powell did not rule out a series of rate hikes. "The only thing we decided was not to raise rates at the June meeting... You know, I wouldn't rule out doing it in successive meetings." "The committee clearly believes that there is more work to be done and that more rate hikes may be appropriate."Now, the market expects that the Federal Reserve has an 80% probability of raising interest rates in July, and the probability of a second rate hike is 50%, which can be said that the market has fully digested the expectation of two rate hikes.That's not my judgment, that's the judgment of the agency:sell $AAPL 20230714 190.0 PUT$sell put, 8,000 lots, and the strike

As the tide turns, it is the turn of emerging markets to rebound, and the dollar is expected to start turning around.Emerging Markets is literally Emerging Markets $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ . The etf's holdings include listed companies in emerging markets such as China, India, South Korea and Brazil. From an investment point of view, the stock is a little awkward, because usually these countries do not move in the same direction. There are also more segmented ETFs on the market, so the investor wouldn't think to trade them in the first place.But options trading on this etf is very active, and I don't know what the institutions are thinking, but someone bought the super long call straddle yesterday:buy