To The Moon

The tumultuous 2023 is about to come to an end, looking back at the year of new energy vehicles industry, it can be described as colorful, from the price war at the beginning of the year, to $Volkswagen AG(VWAGY)$ taking a stake in $XPENG-W(09868)$ in the middle of the year, to the sudden rise of Huawei at the end of the year, new energy vehicles are surging in the capital market.

This year, the good news of $Li Auto(LI)$ $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ spread frequently, with monthly sales broke 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, or reaching the 50,000 mark in December.

This year, $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $XPENG-W(09868)$ came back from the dead, G6 became popular, Volkswagen invested a lot of money, and sales finally broke a new high!

This year, $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$ $NIO-SW(09866)$ was in trouble, laying off employees, financing, cutting projects, and dissatisfied investors taught William Li how to be CEO online!

This year, Huawei automobile made a comeback, the AITO M7 was very popular, and $Seres Group Co.,Ltd.(601127)$ stock price soared. $Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625)$ invested heavily in Huawei BU, Chery, $BAIC MOTOR(01958)$ , $Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.,Ltd.(600418)$ lined up to build cars with Huawei!

This year, $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACF)$ car has made continuous progress, repeatedly stimulating the market nerves!

Although the good news of Li Auto spread frequently, but the stock price did not hit a new high, even continued to weaken near the end of the year; While Xpeng came back from the dead, the monthly sales remained at 20,000, and the stock price was difficult to improve;

NIO is the most bleak, constantly financing, the stock price has fallen for 3 years; $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ , the king of new energy vehicle, the stock price can not bear to look directly at...

In contrast, the new energy vehicle newcomers, Huawei department all skyrocketed; Xiaomi has repeatedly hit a new stage!

Looking ahead to 2024, will new energy vehicles industry be better?

No, it could be worse!

The reason is that the competition is becoming more and more fierce!

Take BYD for example, although the monthly sales of more than 300,000, it is a proper king of new energy sales, he domestic market capacity is limited, and monthly sales growth is increasingly weak. In order to achieve the goal of annual sales of 3 million vehicles, BYD launched a price reduction promotion at the end of the year:

At the same time, although the overseas market is booming, after all, the base is too low, and overseas expansion faces many difficulties, so it is difficult to bring overall sales back to high growth in a short period of time:

For 2024, BYD is afraid to change from offensive to defensive, Huawei, Xiaomi are potential heavyweight rivals.

BYD is not the only one feeling the pressure from Huawei, but also Li Auto. The M9 jointly built by Huawei and Seres is about to be put on the market, is expected to sell of 500,000-600,000 units. At this stage, the number of blind bookings has reached 40, 000.

The new model MEGA is positioned at more than 500,000 yuan high-end MPV, there is no good news from November to date, and the stock price has no reaction. From the model point of view, MPV is not a volume model, MEGA pricing is high, it is expected that the pulling effect on monthly sales is not obvious.

At present, among the new forces in car manufacturing, the highest MPV sales is Denza D9, with monthly sales stable at about 10,000 units, which is already the highest sales model in the MPV market:

Even if the volume isn't high, the MPV competition is becoming more and more fiercer. Xpeng will hold the X9 conference on January 1, 2024, the model price is about 400,000 yuan, and Li Auto MEGA is the same battery electric design, the internal monthly sales target is 2000-3000 units.

D9 has two kinds of hybrid and battery electric, and the sales volume of both is about 9:1, and the sales volume of another domestic MPV ZEEKR 009 is an average of 1500-2000 units in a single month.

From this point of view, MEGA, X9 high probability will not become the turning point of Li Auto and Xpeng stock price, but indicates that the competition in this minority market of MPV has become more fierce, Denza and ZEEKR need to prepare for the impact.

Turning to NIO, William Li made it clear some time ago that new models will not be released in 2024, and the main task is to sell more old cars.

Generally speaking, the sales volume of a model is high at the beginning of the market, and as it enters a stable state in the later stage, the sales volume generally will not have big ups and downs. From the current sales volume of NIO, it can only be stabilized at about 15,000 units. Such sales can neither turn around losses nor lead the stock price out of the trough:

However, William Li said that the second brand will be launched in the second half of 2024, focusing on the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan household market, and he hopes to be able to "win by striking only after the enemy had struck".

Of course, the 200,000-300,000 price belt is the fiercest place for new energy competition, and it is expected that the upcoming Xiaomi car will also focus on this level. As a latecomer, it is too difficult for NIO to "win by striking only after the enemy had struck".