To The Moon

Crude oil prices are at its lowest not seen in many months, looks like there are not many factors currently showing to change the trend of lower crude oil.

But market seem to be bullish about oil because of the demand, though IEA projected faster than previously expected demand growth for 2024, there is a median Brent price of $85 predicted for 2024, this is without considering any major supply disruption. OPEC expects it to expand by 2.2 million barrels daily next year.

The IEA attributed its revised forecast to a better economic outlook and lower oil prices, which traditionally spur greater demand for this commodity.

In this article I would like to share my prediction for Oil prices for 2024 and whether we will be able to see any trend related to how IEA and OPEC could be thinking or doing.

Brent Crude Oil Price (Current)

If we look at the current Brent Crude Oil, it seem to hover around the $79 mark now, this is what the lows happen around January 2023, but will lower prices cause more demand, and hence, drive the prices up?

Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction For Year 2024

The model is expecting Oil to be open the trade at $80 in January 2024, before getting an average price of $80.58, while trading between $71.98 and $88.74. It finally close the month at $81.01 with a 1.2% change.

Price start to fall with a -5.4% change in February 2024, even after Oil open at $81.01 but average price for the month is only $77.86 after it closes at $76.63 with trading range between $72.8 and $80.76.

We could see further decline in Oil in March 2024, when oil close at $71.88 with a -6.2% change, trading range is between $68.29 and $76.14 and the month average came in at $73.36.

Oil price went for a rebound in April 2024 after it traded within $71.88 and $80.06 with a monthly average of $75.07, before closing at $76.34 with a 6.2% change.

We continue to see a 1.5% change for Oil in May 2024 where it traded within $73.63 and $81.27 with a monthly average of $77.21. It finally close the month at $77.50. Oil continued to enjoy the rebound with a 6.2% change in June 2024 when it close at $82.31 with a monthly average of $80.94.

We might see a decline for Oil in July 2024, though 3.2% change is still positive when it close at $84.94 with a monthly average of $84.28. We saw yet another huge decline of -6.2% in August 2024 when Oil traded in the range of $75.69 and $84.33 with a monthly average of $81.31, before closing at $79.67.

In September 2024, we saw Oil coming back with a small change of 0.6% while monthly average is $80.03, and close at $80.15. October 2024 might proved to be another decline as Oil traded with monthly average of $77.24 before closing at $76.23 with a -4.9% change.

November 2024 does not seem to be a good month for Oil as it close at $75.73 with a -0.7% change, the monthly average came in at $75.86. We might see an improvement in December 2024 before Oil close the year at $77.61 with 2.5%, traded between $73.73 and $81.13. Monthly average worked out to be $77.14.

We might see some rebound months, that could be due to more demand, and there is a lower oil price prior to these rebounds.

Summary

Lower prices does stimulate demand, and if we look at how the prediction have played out, there are changes in the prices, which shall bring us to the good old oil cycle again.

We might not see rebound all year round, but we should be able to see some opportunities if we follow the trend closely.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think we could find opportunities on how Oil price is predicted to move in 2024?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2402(CLmain)$ $United States Brent Oil Fund LP(BNO)$ $United States Oil Fund(USO)$ $Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF(PXE)$