To The Moon

Should auld acquaintance be forgot And never brought to mind? Should auld acquaintance be forgot And the days of auld lang syne? I thought its appropriate to share this age-old song by Robert Burns who penned it in 1788. Afterall, Fri, 29 Dec 2023 will be the last trading day of 2023. As we make way to welcome a hopefully more profitable 2024, here is one more look at 2023! More Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week and not enough to raise concern about the labor market or broader economy. Jobless claims rose to 218,000 for the week ending Dec. 23. This is an increase of +12,000 from the previous week. The 4-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week movements, fell by -250 to 212,000. Overall, 1.88 Million Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the week that ended Dec. 16, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week. More importantly, this is what the Fed would like to “see” overall because they wouldn’t want a overheated economy also. US stock market rally had a quiet day Thu, 28 Dec 2023, with the major indexes little changed. The overall big picture is this December rally is one of the best end-of-year rallies ever encountered. And a lot of this rally happened before the Fed pivot in the middle of December. If the S&P 500 is able to settle above its previous all-time closing high, it would have confirmed that the benchmark index entered a bull market. Reaching new highs after 2 years could be a subtle sign that economic strength could be in the cards for 2024, said Carson Group, Chief Market strategist - Ryan Detrick. While there is riding on Friday, Thursday’s closing is as such: DJIA: +0.14% (+53.58 to 3,7710.10). S&P 500 : +0.04% (+1.77 to 4,783.35). Longest weekly winning streak for the benchmark average since 2004. Nasdaq: -0.03% (-4.04 to 15,095.14). Tech index has gained > +44% in 2023. If it holds onto its current level or rally higher one last time, it would be Nasdaq average's best year since 2003. I am sharing my only 2023 confessional investment. What made it an “unconventional” investment piece was because: It was purchased on the same evening based on a whim of a post that I have read in the morning. (see below) Instead of an in-depth verification on the company’s profile and its business. I have thrown caution to the wind and went in with my gut feel after a brief overview. Below is a high level glimpse into this telco firm. I did perform a brief preliminary check on $Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$ . Below is what I have found. Area of Business: Lumen Technologies is a facilities-based technology and communications company, mainly focused on providing integrated products and services to businesses and consumers under the Lumen, Quantum Fiber, and CenturyLink brands. Reasons for Stock Price Plunge: Declining Legacy Business: Revenue from traditional landline and voice services has been steadily declining as customers switch to newer technologies like mobile and VoIP. High Debt Burden: LUMN carries a significant amount of debt, which hinders its financial flexibility and weighs on profitability. The persistently high interest rate could only exacerbate it right! Intense Competition: The company faces fierce competition from established players like $AT&T Inc(T)$ and $Verizon(VZ)$, as well as newer entrants in the cloud and internet services space. Execution Challenges: LUMN has struggled to adapt its business model effectively to the changing market landscape, leading to missed opportunities and sluggish growth. Recovery Plans: Focus on High-Growth Markets: LUMN is shifting its focus towards high-growth areas like cybersecurity, edge computing, and fiber broadband services. Cost-Cutting and Debt Reduction: The company is implementing cost-cutting measures and looking to reduce its debt burden to improve profitability. Investing in New Technologies: LUMN is investing in new technologies like 5G and edge computing to stay competitive and attract new customers. Partnerships and Acquisitions: LUMN is exploring strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its reach and offerings. 2024 Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic: Based on the latest quarterly earnings outlook, analysts are cautiously optimistic about LUMN's 2024 prospects. Revenue growth is expected to remain subdued, but cost-cutting measures and debt reduction might improve profitability. Key Factors to Watch: Continued execution on growth initiatives, success in managing debt, and the overall economic climate will be key for LUMN's comeback. LUMN Q3 2023 earnings. Revenue: $3.641 Billion, down -17.1% YoY and -0.5% sequentially. Net Loss: $78 Million, compared to a net income of +$578 million YoY. Adjusted EBITDA: $1.049 Billion, down -38.4% YoY and flat sequentially. Free Cash Flow: $43 Million, down -93.3% YoY and 57.8% sequentially. Earnings highlights: Revenue decline largely attributable to divestitures and commercial agreements related to divestitures. Enterprise Channel revenue increased, showing positive growth YoY. Adjusted EBITDA margin excluding special items remained healthy at +28.8%. Reiterated full-year 2023 guidance. Peers comparison: Overall: LUMN underperformed its major peers in Q3, such as Verizon, AT&T, and CenturyLink, which all reported positive revenue growth and higher margins. Revenue: LUMN's revenue decline was steeper than its peers, which saw modest growth or flat numbers. Profitability: LUMN's adjusted EBITDA margin was lower than Verizon and AT&T, but higher than CenturyLink. Free Cash Flow: LUMN's free cash flow generation was significantly weaker than its peers. At the start of Jan 2023, LUMN peaked at $6.04 per share. Then it began its descend. It bottomed on 01 Nov 2023 at $0.98 per share. LUMN has dipped -65.55% YTD. Rewards: This is my rewards for taking a calculated risk in LUMN. I am not trying to encourage anyone to speculate. On the contrary, I am trying to highlight that it’s a calculated risk, despite not spend too much time, deep-diving into the business. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to repost ok. Thanks. Will NIO hit $11 soon ? Read & decide. Buy Ready Capital REITs before 2024? Read & decide. Do you think US market will end on a high on Fri, 29 Dec 2023? Do you think you would have done the same and speculate in Lumen Technologies or other US stocks like me? Please give a “LIKe” and “Re-post” ok. Thanks. Rating is very important (to me). Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post/s ok. Thanks. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents @pyc @VivianChua @StickyRice @HSTew @ElaineK