$腾讯控股(00700)$ MS: We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days.
This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. We believe the market has overreacted to the draft game consultation. We see three near-term catalysts: (1) potential softening of rules enforcement, (2) robust DreamStar performance and key title launches; and (3) MOBA grossing inflection. On on our 2024 estimate, P/E is 13x (11x core). We project 11% revenue and 30% non-GAAP NP growth for 2024.
We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or "very likely") probability for the scenario.
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