To The Moon

Shall start off with yet another doom and gloom article:

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/2024-could-become-a-horrible-year-for-china-s-economy/ss-AA1fYye3?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=LCTS&cvid=bd367103d0094b3490ad463216f856c1&ei=20#image=16

Oh dear, the sky is falling yet again.

The pericular issue with these articles is that somehow the more they post, the more the reverse happens. 

Recall 2023? When economists were predicting bear markets? Is it a bull wearing a bear mask? 

The odd issue with predictions could be the more everyone expect doom and gloom, the more people will cater for that. When everyone sold off early cos of the fear, who is remaining behind to sell even more? There's no more people left to sell.

That's also the reason when stocks fall, they fall rapidly, cos those who are scared and worried sell off fast, until it reach a point whereby left with those who are contemplating and undecided in selling, then the selling slows down. It will further slow down when it's only left with those who will not sell, then the reverse happens, people start to buy and accumulate again. 

We have repeatedly seen the same story happen for China stocks, especially Alibaba. any drop after $70-75 range is muted. Well, there's nothing to say that it definitely Won't fall further, but it's like a rubber band. The more we stretch, the harder it is to stretch further unlesss the company has internal issues and it's going to blow up internally. 

Companies are like people, they will find ways to survive. if not they will die. There's lots of talk about how China Govt is killing off China private enterprise. What happened then? 

China Govt started to have stake in the private enterprises and/or the companies Diversify away from China. 

Anyway, I digress Too far from the article. 

1. Back to the article, analysts are criticising China for not boosting the economy using stimulus. 

The key is not using. The question is, can China use. it's like having the bullets in the gun, when or whether to use is up to the individual. Means that when shit really hits the fan, something will happen. Just that China doesn't feel that it's the time yet. 

2. Real estate problem has been Lingering for a long while. The stock market reflected the plunge, companies performed write offs. 

Again, the article is flagging the dead horse.

How much more can the China property fall again? Another 50-70% again? There isn't much more space to drop unless the companies declare bankruptcy. Anyway, the market already catered for potential bankruptcy. Markets in the long run are logical. 

3. Falling exports and unempoyment goes hand in hand. Lesser exports, lesser jobs. however, this is going to be a worldwide issue with protectionism coming and lesser demand due to high interest rates. China situation is likely worse off than other countries due to how dominant they are as the world's manufacturer, however this is cushioned by

4. Falling China currency, the yuan.

I wonder how many people still recall about this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46031652.amp

Just in 2018, us under trump, is complaining that China artificially Kept Yuan low to boost exports. 

Somehow the narrative changes 5 years later, suddenly yuan low is terrible for China economy. [Speechless]  

There's a reason why we must always read articles with critical mind. Articles are written to draw views, draw attention and draw viewership. It's for commercial purpose. Is it truly to help everyone in their investment journey? My toes are laughing. [Facepalm]  [LOL]  

Somehow when people follow the gurus and/or analysts blindly, shit happens. Why so? Cos either they are lagging indicators or they just sold you a product. The money is already in their pocket. Hence, the saying, no one cares More about your money, than yourself.

In summary, the more negative articles there are of China on beginning of year, the higher the probability of reversals. The question is as always, when. Well, we can only have discounts when the market is beaten down. [Tongue]