To The Moon

After the entire drama on Bitcoin etf being approved. The aftermath is laughable. 

Let's look at Bitcoin:

Where oh where is the rally? 

Then we look at $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 

Post market rally is also laughable. 

The crypto bulls has been portraying the approval as "water shed", major impact to Bitcoin. If so, where's the rally?

Prior to the approval, I have short Feb $140 call position, I decided to roll it to Mar $150 call to defend against big rallies and still added short $110 put as good measure. 

I had anticipated that the event would end up being a buy on rumour and sell on news event. Likely short rally before reverting back to norm or even bearish. 

Why so?

Crypto markets are illogical as there are no proper goods and services rendered. They trade base on speculations and perceived values. As people are trading crypto, they would have priced in the approval Of etf even a while back. Hence, after the approval there isn't a major move with Bitcoin. It's already priced in. Then the question becomes, if the bullish news is priced in, what's next? More bullish news? Or are traders going to take profit? 

There's a price war amongst the Bitcoin ETFs even before the offical approval.

Let's talk about demand and supply. If the demand for Bitcoin Etf is sky high, demand > supply, shouldnt the ETFs charge high rates? Why the price war? This is a glaring sign that the ETFs themselves are expecting limited demand despite the sales pitch. 

There is a high chance that those who wanted to enter crypto markets have already entered. These ETFs are not really opening much new markets, those who maybe interested could be those who were burned by the previous crypto scandals or are holding cold wallets. In fact, sec despite the approval of etf mentioned that they do not endorse or approve Bitcoin. This will likely mean that they could still be action taken against Bitcoin/Bitcoin etf. If the fund managers ended up targeting those who are vulnerable, there is a good chance that there could be repercussions. 

Why so bearish on coinBase? 

Coinbase makes money from transacting crypto. With ETFs, normal brokerages can also buy and sell, bypassing coinbase.

True Coinbase is likely used as custodian for Bitcoin holding by fund manager, but the fees will be less lucrative. 

In addition, big fund have bigger bargaining power over retail investors, hence unless the ETFs really bring in lots of fresh funds, otherwise coinbase may potentially see a fall in revenue. 

Well, I have always been a crypto bear. Hence the above are purely my views. 

What I am preparing to do though, is to take profit on my short puts. [Cool]  

Black cat, white cat, can catch rat is a good cat. 

Let's see how it goes.