To The Moon

Despite a subdued start to the week, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed at a record high for the second consecutive trading day, edging up 0.2%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit an all-time high, gaining 0.4%, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ reached its highest closing level since January 4, 2022. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

U.S. Treasury yields pulled back slightly after a notable increase last week, with the 10-year Treasury note yield at 4.09%.

Keys market move

U.S. equities continued their rally, with the S&P 500 closing at a new high and the Dow surpassing 38,000 for the first time. Small caps outperformed large caps, and industrials and real estate sectors showed strength. Walgreen and Disney led the Dow higher, while Home Depot and Nike lagged. The Nasdaq and tech sectors saw mixed performances.

The VIX slipped to 13.17, and Treasury yields for the 30-year and 10-year ended at 4.317% and 4.099%, respectively. The 2-year yield closed at 4.385%.

VIX

The narrative around imminent interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve appears to be losing momentum. CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 55.6% probability of rates staying the same in March, a shift from an 80% probability of a cut in the second week of January. This comes in the wake of Fed officials cautioning against premature policy adjustments, pushing back against market expectations for a rate cut.

Int Rate

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. Market attention is increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee meeting next week, with a keen eye on the March meeting.

Chinese Market Intervention:

Amid concerns about a slumping stock market, Chinese authorities are contemplating measures to stabilize it. Initial attempts fell short, prompting Premier Li Qiang to call for forceful steps. Hong Kong stocks rallied, but the effectiveness of the proposed plan remains uncertain. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$

Market intervention

conclusion

• The market remains dynamic, balancing record highs, shifting interest rate expectations, and global economic considerations. The upcoming weeks promise significant developments that could shape the market trajectory.

Calendar : 3M, Baker Hughes, D.R. Horton, General Electric, Halliburton, Invesco, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, $Netflix(NFLX)$ , Procter & Gamble, RTX, Texas Instruments, and Verizon Communications report earnings.

Disclaimer: Investments involve risks, and the provided information does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after thorough analysis and considering individual risk tolerance.

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